Last month, Publishers Weekly published an “end of the publishing industry as we know it” article that was very different than most of the other “end of the publishing industry as we know it” articles, mainly because it was really good.
As it happens it was written by former Random House CEO Peter Olson, and he addresses a somewhat familiar litany of problems: the weak standing of bookstore chains, discount stores treating books as loss leaders and slashing prices (which further erodes bookstores), the rise of Amazon, and the sinkhole of confusion that is e-book pricing.
His solution? Demand-based pricing on e-books, partnership with Amazon, and enough with the layoffs.
The article is must-read of all must-reads if you want to know the challenges facing the book industry. Olson should know. He was there, and you won’t find a better summary of what the industry is facing, and particularly new authors. Olson writes:
“Despite the drive to cut costs, the market for advances for celebrity books shows few signs of abating in 2009. Publishers will likely continue to overbid for potential bestsellers, justifying their offers on marginal contribution from outdated sales projection models. This means bad news for other writers, as the willingness of publishers to invest time and money in developing new projects and of retailers to risk stockpiling unknown authors may drop precipitously.”
Can publishing change? One Harvard Business Prof isn’t so sure.
Writing for the Wall Street Journal, Anita Elberse defends the blockbuster model, citing the blockbuster effect of publishers doing everything in their power to make a book a bestseller when they’ve paid so much, paying a lot means agents will send their best projects, bookstores take notice when a publisher is investing in a title they believe in, and the vast array of books available creates an even stronger craving in the reading public for a shared experience. People want to read what other people are reading.
So what, dare I ask, should we make of all this?
Well, in my opinion there are two meta forces at work in book publishing at the moment. With the closing of bookstores, fewer titles being ordered by the bookstores that are left, and more people buying their books in stores where there are fewer titles available (i.e. box stores like WalMart), there is tremendous pressure on publishers to invest in the few books that can reliably sell.
At the same time, the Internet and e-books are opening up new sales avenues for authors who either catch on through word of mouth or are able to build their own buzz. As a result, you’re seeing progressively more self-published and small-press books rise up through the cacophony of titles and find their readers.
In essence, it’s the best of times and the worst of times. If you’re an enterprising author there is a world of opportunity out there. Never before have we had a book publishing world where truly anyone could publish and potentially find their readers. Before there was a fundamental obstacle: distribution. That’s going away. Anyone can publish. It’s a massive, groundbreaking shift! I suspect soon there will be even more opportunities for collectives and online communities to boost sales, build brands, and become real players in publishing. Out of chaos comes order.
At the same time, when faced with such a multitude of choices, people tend to go with the familiar, and publishers are following that trend and filling that niche. The blockbuster model carries a great deal of risk, and there are drawbacks to putting so many eggs in a few baskets, but it may not be an irrational choice. And of course, this means that precious few new authors will get the backing of the publishers, making it that much harder for them to break out. But once an author is able to break out and convince a publisher to invest in them, no one can match a major publisher’s combined efforts in publicity, production, and distribution.
It certainly is a brave new world. After changing so little for 75 years, the book industry is in for a wild ride.
Ugly Deaf Muslim Punk Gurl! says
EVERYTHING is changing. Not just books but film, music, TV shows, and videogames.
Instead of fighting it, we must embrace the changes and think of new innovative ways to make it work.
Anonymous says
Great post, Nathan. The question is… how can an author take advantage of the changes that are inevitably to come?
Dunno.
Suzan Harden says
The book world is a few steps behind the comics, music and television markets where fragmentation of the audience forced the big boys to change.
For crying out loud, you know the wind’s blowing when Harlequin jumps into the interactive gaming market.
MzMannerz says
What was the major change 75 years ago? Just curious – sorry if I should know.
Nathan Bransford says
mzmanners-
The Great Depression — it brought us the returns model, paperback books, and more.
Dara says
It’s nice that there’s the self-publishing avenue. However, my issue with the ease of self-publishing is that you generally have to have a decent amount of money invested if you want to get your book to more than just a few hundred people. And for people like me, there’s no way I could put the money into that only to not get enough return or profit.
It is a time of change for the publishing industry and it’ll be interesting to see what happens in another year or so.
I do wonder though–where does all this change leave an agent? I’m sure it’s got to be a little nerve wracking. Then again, in this economy, many people are nervous about job stability.
Madison says
I am the type of person that tends to not accept change easily. However, I still love this industry with all its ups and downs because nothing it perfect. What will come will and I hope the publishing indistry’s future is a bright one! 😀
RW says
It seems like half the equation in this problem is something publishers have very little control over — a decreasing market because of apparently decreasing number of readers, regardless of what the product, price or distribution model are. Publishers can find creative ways to surf the tech and distribution changes, but even if all of them do everything right, if there are not enough readers in the market . . . .
Nathan Bransford says
dara-
Good points and questions, although the costs of entry are going to be markedly lower if we enter a primarily e-book world.
Agents are going to have to adapt. I think the tendency is to follow the publishers toward a blockbuster model of our own, but I think you’ll start seeing some innovation when it comes to the way we make our living as well.
Anonymous says
Quote from the Wall Street Journal article:
“… And do media companies sometimes pick the wrong titles to focus their attention on? Absolutely — no one in the industry has a perfect record, and the process of picking winners remains “an informed crapshoot,” as one executive put it…”
**I’d be in love with the blockbuster business model, if only I could be the next blockbuster they created! Hey, some publisher out there, take a “crapshoot” on my book!
Please.
T. Anne says
I disagree with no one being able to match a major publishers publicity endeavors. Maybe that’s true today but something tells me tomorrow will bring about a new way to create a buzz.
Rick Chesler says
Thanks for this post, Nathan. Timely, informative, and interesting.
other lisa says
I’m really mixed about this. Of course.
Here’s the thing: I don’t mind doing my bit for marketing. I’ll blog, I’ll tour, I’ll Tweet, whatever. That said, I am not an entrepreneur. Marketing and promotion are not my natural skill-set, and I think that most writers would say the same. The exceptions are a few mega-success stories who are their own corporations, who, you know, hire people to do a lot of the actual writing (I won’t name names), so it seems to me that although storytelling is certainly something these guys are very good at, they are at heart as much businesspeople as writers.
I can operate in the business world to a certain extent, but I’m not that comfortable there and I doubt that entrepreneurial activities are my greatest strength, or even close to it.
So my question is, does this brave new world actually encourage good writing? I’m not sure that it does. It encourages people who have a gift for self-promotion and networking. And while I won’t say that those talents are mutually exclusive, it’s more like a Venn diagram, with an overlap in the middle of people who are good at both, and a lot of folks in the larger circles who are good at one thing or the other.
IMO, a writer will still need a team, and the larger industry will still need a quality filter of some sort.
Nathan Bransford says
t. anne-
Probably true — there are new ways of creating buzz as well. Although publishers have the resources to produce it more consistently and with the right venues (at least in theory)
7-iron says
I can’t decide about this.
At times I think, texting and YouTube comments are killing grammar, and the world is getting seriously stupid.
Then I think, sure, everyone can publish, but not everyone is good.
But then… what’s good if everyone is stupid?
Brian says
Self publishing will play a larger role until things stabilize in the publishing world. However the big publishers are not doing themselves any favors by paying celebrities like Brittany Spears 14 million dollars for one book.
Even the publisher of Tom Clancy’s books has released them in all electronic formats. Actually, that happened today.
Mary says
Exciting times ahead!
Alessa Ellefson says
Nathan,
I don’t know if you’re ever going to get around to reading my meager comment, but I wanted to thank you for your article. I found it very interesting and actually motivating. What this is telling me is that people need to really do their best if they want to make it in this industry.
So, how much more exciting can it get to have to give it your all? 🙂
Kim Stagliano says
So true. The world is moving at warp speed. I fear the brick and mortar bookstore is going to go the way of video stores – although I hope and pray there will always be room for independents.
Are we newer writers foolish to think a mainstream house will offer us contracts?
How do you see this affecting you as an agent, Nathan. Is the quality of the queries and MS’s you receive changing now that “Anyone can write!” to bend a phrase from Chef Gusteau in Ratatouille?
Ink says
Hmmmm… I struggle with that concept from the second article which suggests that failing to get in ridiculous bidding wars will cause agents to shun a publisher and thus kill the quality of their list. I mean, there are a lot of agents with a lot of good projects. So, a publisher isn’t willing to get in a ridiculous bidding war for a Tina Fey book… and somehow that means you won’t send a marketable literary novel to them? Or a real keen thriller? If anything, I think the chances would be better there, since you already know what book the Tina Fey publisher is going to put their money and marketing behind. Lead title has been stamped on that book before the ink on the contract is dry.
I mean, the key to success is not the size of the advance and the subsequent risk, but rather the designation of a book as a lead title (with the marketing and publicity push that goes along with it). And that designation could be given to a book with a 100,000 dollar advance as easily as 5,000,000 dollar advance. Wouldn’t agents and authors be willing to accept that for excellent projects? We’ll give you a reasonable advance, but we’ll push your book just as much as the Tina Fey people will push hers. Same marketing, same publicity… and maybe both earn back at the 3 million level. One publisher rakes in the money (and the author does just as well on royalties), while the second publisher just lost two million. Author is fine… until their next book comes up and the publisher ain’t so thrilled with the person who cost them a couple big ones…
I don’t know, it just seems like there’s other ways to interpret the possibilities of that situation. Even if they’re not making crazy bids at auction, the publishers will steal need great books and lead titles… and agents will know this. Right?
Admittedly, I’m under the weather today, so I might not be thinking clearly. Slap me down if so, and lay the truth out there.
My best, as always,
Bryan Russell
Whirlochre says
I can’t see the fundamental rules changing in the relationship between voice and ear, but things do look exciting/daunting at the moment, depending on your POV.
If a greater variety of writers get heard (and consequently wanted), then good.
If fewer blockbusters are demanded (and their authors get to eat slighly fewer luxury pizzas), then, also, good.
But if we’re complicit in perpetuating the end of the world, let’s just dial the big alien battlestar now and get it over with.
(Interestingly, my word verification here is ‘hypaymen’ — an odd coincidence given other end-of-the-world scenarios)
Nathan Bransford says
kim-
I’m getting more queries than ever, but a lot of them are actually really good lately. So it’s kind of a mixed bag.
bryan-
Well, as an agent you go first to the places where you think you can get the best deal. It’s not like I’ve crossed off any publisher who did not bid on Tina Fey’s book, but at the same time, I’m definitely conscious of where the bread gets buttered.
Tashai says
Books, music, and films. All these mogul industries must change with the new technology.
Teri says
On top of what you have described, the end of small, well-done magazines like Realms of Fantasy (which just announced this month that it was going out of publication) signals the increase in difficulties for authors to find places to grow and develop – short stories in fiction magazines being a great gateway and learning opportunity for all new authors.
Ink says
Nathan-
But Publisher A can only butter so many pieces of bread, right? (eg. Tina Fey) And after that they’re gonna start giving out saltines. 🙂 At which point you’d be wise to send a good project to Publisher B. Maybe they don’t put as much butter on as Publisher A, but it ain’t no stale cracker, either. 🙂
I know, I know, I should’ve used sports metaphors. Hmmm… the Knicks will have the money in 2010 and the glitz and glam of the Big Apple… but they might still suck. Whereas the Kings may not have the glam, but they’ll still give you a nice deal and maybe they’be stockpiled some young talent and in a couple years will be a contender…
Maybe I’m just upset that knucklehead Stephen A. Smith is saying Bosh is leaving my Raps… the world’s a cruel place. 🙂
My best, as always,
Bryan Russell
Samuel says
In the meantime, we could all do our bit by supporting first-time authors. After all, if we’re hoping people will one day buy our debut offerings, then it seems a tad hypocritical to not support our fellow new authors by, say, buying one debut novel a month.
Make the pledge. I can – and do – recommend Ross Raisin’s God’s Own Country (though I believe it’s called Out Backward in the States), and Joshua Ferris’ Then We Came to the End.
wickerman says
I would think traditional publishers are going to have to think outside the box to stay on top of things here.
If you look at the music industry, sales were up like 10% in the last year, but physical media (CDs) were down 20%. Digital downloads are huge. If books start to go that way, why the heck would James Patterson stay with his publishing house when he could sell the book himself – he obviously had name recognition – and keep a HUGE % of the profits?
Similarly, as mentioned above, with more houses throwing a big piece of the marketing back at the authors, why would you accept 7-15% of the retail cut when you are also doing the marketing portion of the book? YOU wrote the book, why does the publisher get a bigger cut? Because they laid out the money for printing, binding etc.. Soooooo if you – as the author – want a bigger piece, go ebook. At least you are getting paid for being your own marketing agent.
Maybe the big guys need to fully embrace POD, stop paying out stupid advances and look for better retail angles for their books. If you are publishing a non-fiction history of Harley Davidson motorcycles, try selling it at HD motorcycle shops!
The problem with a Britney Spears bestseller is that 5 years from now, chances are, no one will give a damn about her. It’s a one trick pony. Sure its $$ now, but the next Stephen King is $$ for years.
With less money for breaking in new talent, a vicious circle begins.
And Nathan gets few sales.
And might have to cancel cable TV.
And misses his reality shows.
And then… well let’s pray taht never happens…
other lisa says
I like Olsen’s idea of variable pricing structure for different eBooks at different places in their publishing lives though.
Nathan Bransford says
bryan-
I don’t think it can so neatly be boiled down to individual books. The major publishers pay the most money and offer the most distribution and promotion. That’s basically what’s at stake. Within that, if one publisher wants to make a book a lead title at the same time that another publisher is offering more money… well, that’s a rare situation and you’d have to decide on a case by case basis.
And yeah, I’d be nervous about Bosh.
Anonymous says
Wait, though. Nathan, if you’re getting better queries now, and presumably are submitting them to editors, are you getting bites back? Are you signing authors and getting them contracts?
In all the news about the “change” that has to happen, I don’t see a lot of talk about the fact that –guess what–most people still don’t want to read poorly written dreck. I think we still need the process of editors and publishers to filter that. (Or did I miss something about that?)
Nathan Bransford says
anon-
Yeah, I’m getting bites, but it’s harder to sell a book now than it ever has been, so I’m also passing on stuff I might not have a couple of years ago.
Bane of Anubis says
If you pick up a Writer’s Market it states “over 5 million copies sold.” – making the very lofty assumption that one is in the top 1% (much less the top 50%) that puts the competition at 50,000 – whittle it down to 5,000 if one is targeting a narrow sect and the odds with which success can be attained in this industry become quite daunting – given the dearth of readers and the explosion of writers, this makes the task of getting published (not “self”) quite depressing.
Kristan says
Nathan, what about the “stigma” currently attached to self-publishing (mostly within the publishing industry)?
Bane of Anubis says
Given the e-book proliferation, I’m surprised there hasn’t been a venture (spearheaded by Google or Amazon) that marries books and advertisements – similar to what we’ve seen in the music and film industries.
Not sure if this would resuscitate the book industry in any way, but at least it would tie it to the current generational paradigm.
Ink says
Nathan,
What about a salary cap? Industry wide cap on ridiculous celeb advances. 🙂 Hey, it works for the NBA and the NFL, and we know where you’re publishing knowledge all comes from…
My best,
Bryan
Nathan Bransford says
bryan-
Sorry, publishing industry advances are modeled on the MLB.
Ink says
Nathan,
Now that I’ve actually lured your attention with talk of the Sacramento Kings, I thought I’d ask a quick, and more pertinent, question. If, after an agent has requested a Full, they say they will look at anything else you write in the future does that mean A) “Hey, you’re not bad, so feel free to query me in the future, or B) “You’re really good, and while this project wasn’t right for me in the end feel free to send a full manuscript of your next project to me if you think it’s suitable.” So, basically, how much is generally implied by that offer to look at future projects?
Much appreciated,
Bryan Russell
Nathan Bransford says
bryan-
Could be either one, depending on the agent. Alas, wish I could divine more.
Bane of Anubis says
BR – I’m just wondering if Kobe’s 61 was a warmup for another throwdown in Toronto :)?
That would suck if Bosh left Toronto – 1st T-Mac, then VC, and potentially Bosh joining Bron Bron in NY (w/ Amare and Steve Nash, too, j/j)… I’m wondering how long Toronto will remain in Toronto before it becomes refranchised like Vancouver.
Dan says
Nathan,
How much is this talk about the publishing industry directed toward fiction as opposed to non-fiction?
Though I do read a bit of the best sellers (I like the treasure hunting type books), I primarily read non-fiction, and I feel like I’d be extremely reluctant (if at all willing) to read self-published non-fiction.
Ink says
Nathan,
Thanks. As long as agents don’t strike down with lightning impertinent authors who sneak in Fulls… Actually, I figured it was probably subjective, but there was a chance it might’ve been Secret Agent Code and the dangerous plans of the Illuminati would be revealed to me so that I might save the world with my esoteric knowledge of ancient art. It’s plausible. Really.
Anyway, Go Kings! Go Raps! (Hey, if we combined their records they might actually make the playoffs…)
Thanks again,
Bryan Russell
Anonymous says
Aughhhh…….
Anonymous says
I agree with a previous poster who noted that we, as writers, should support new authors.
But I disagree with the example cited: “Joshua Ferris’ Then We Came to the End.”
This book WAS lead title, and because of that publisher support/media attention has become a rousing success. That author’s career is quite secure as is his bank account, I’m certain.
That’s the “crapshoot” the article link was talking about. How can the rest of us survive, without being a lead title? No one ever seems to have an answer to this, and what’s worse, is they aren’t looking for one.
Write a better book? But “better” is subjective. One cannot force themselves to be a lead title, after all. I can read books from the same publisher released in the same month — one a lead title and one which gets released in a “sink or swim mode” and always end up liking the latter better. Don’t know why.
Nathan Bransford says
dan-
It’s affecting nonfiction too, particularly things like trade reference and biographies, which are moving online. “Platform” is more important than ever to publishers.
Ink says
Bane of Anubis,
Please do not remind me of The Night That Never Was. It did not happen. When I count to one hundred I skip the number 81. That guy on the Lakers is like the villain in Harry Potter… He Who Shall Not Be Named. (My wife's a Lakers fan. It's painful, I admit…)
We won't be refranchised though! We got a pretty crazy following, though backtracking would be frustrating. We'd still turn up, though. We like booing those sonsofbi*&%$& that left us at the altar too much. 🙂
Bryan
Anonymous says
My worry is that digital music was never tangible, but you lose that quality in digital books. Books are wonderfully tactile and even though I like my Sony eReader, I miss being able to flip back a few pages, flip to the back cover, feel the paper, smell the paper.
That fact might contribute to where digital book sales go. And, the Sony eReader screen is still not as good as paper (I haven’t seen a Kindle).
Chris Bates says
Publishing isn’t dead. The old business model of books, bricks and mortar may be gasping for air but the young scattershot upstart business model that is staging a takeover is something to be reckoned with.
The shotgun effect of millions of people self-publishing (POD or offset print), blog promoting, online selling and self-distributing is unarguably the beginning of a revolution in the world of books.
This paradym shift may not produce better writing in the most part (you can guarantee that it won’t), but it will enable true talent to out itself with much more ease. The barriers to publishing have been reduced to a simple contract – that between author and reader. A new author need not engage an agent, publisher, distributor, designer or marketing firm … they don’t even need a query letter.
Authors will, however, need content. Good content.
Of course, this is something that agents and publishers knew all along.
Only now, authors have no excuse. The world is your reader … and they’re just one click away. If you’re work is good enough, then the market is yours.
The bullshit has been eroded in this new era to reveal, not bankruptcy and failure, but opportunity.
DebraLSchubert says
Nathan, Could you please pass the cyanide? My arsenic-laced chai tea latte is tasting a bit bland.
Steve Fuller says
As I have said before, I believe the new model (at least in part) will be an author’s ability to build an online following, self-publish, market himself, sell a bunch of copies, and THEN get a sniff from big publishing houses.
That is why they are signing celebrities. In this economic state, they need sure things, and no first-time author is a sure thing.
We need to learn to use the new system to our advantage, not fear it.
Janet says
It will be interesting to see how it all shakes out. Just when I want to break into the market too. Figures.
Now, Nathan, who is going to write an article on how all this will affect agents? Publishers, bookstores, authors, they’ve all been mentioned. But is this going to cause a major upheaval in the life of agents too?