Last month, Publishers Weekly published an “end of the publishing industry as we know it” article that was very different than most of the other “end of the publishing industry as we know it” articles, mainly because it was really good.
As it happens it was written by former Random House CEO Peter Olson, and he addresses a somewhat familiar litany of problems: the weak standing of bookstore chains, discount stores treating books as loss leaders and slashing prices (which further erodes bookstores), the rise of Amazon, and the sinkhole of confusion that is e-book pricing.
His solution? Demand-based pricing on e-books, partnership with Amazon, and enough with the layoffs.
The article is must-read of all must-reads if you want to know the challenges facing the book industry. Olson should know. He was there, and you won’t find a better summary of what the industry is facing, and particularly new authors. Olson writes:
“Despite the drive to cut costs, the market for advances for celebrity books shows few signs of abating in 2009. Publishers will likely continue to overbid for potential bestsellers, justifying their offers on marginal contribution from outdated sales projection models. This means bad news for other writers, as the willingness of publishers to invest time and money in developing new projects and of retailers to risk stockpiling unknown authors may drop precipitously.”
Can publishing change? One Harvard Business Prof isn’t so sure.
Writing for the Wall Street Journal, Anita Elberse defends the blockbuster model, citing the blockbuster effect of publishers doing everything in their power to make a book a bestseller when they’ve paid so much, paying a lot means agents will send their best projects, bookstores take notice when a publisher is investing in a title they believe in, and the vast array of books available creates an even stronger craving in the reading public for a shared experience. People want to read what other people are reading.
So what, dare I ask, should we make of all this?
Well, in my opinion there are two meta forces at work in book publishing at the moment. With the closing of bookstores, fewer titles being ordered by the bookstores that are left, and more people buying their books in stores where there are fewer titles available (i.e. box stores like WalMart), there is tremendous pressure on publishers to invest in the few books that can reliably sell.
At the same time, the Internet and e-books are opening up new sales avenues for authors who either catch on through word of mouth or are able to build their own buzz. As a result, you’re seeing progressively more self-published and small-press books rise up through the cacophony of titles and find their readers.
In essence, it’s the best of times and the worst of times. If you’re an enterprising author there is a world of opportunity out there. Never before have we had a book publishing world where truly anyone could publish and potentially find their readers. Before there was a fundamental obstacle: distribution. That’s going away. Anyone can publish. It’s a massive, groundbreaking shift! I suspect soon there will be even more opportunities for collectives and online communities to boost sales, build brands, and become real players in publishing. Out of chaos comes order.
At the same time, when faced with such a multitude of choices, people tend to go with the familiar, and publishers are following that trend and filling that niche. The blockbuster model carries a great deal of risk, and there are drawbacks to putting so many eggs in a few baskets, but it may not be an irrational choice. And of course, this means that precious few new authors will get the backing of the publishers, making it that much harder for them to break out. But once an author is able to break out and convince a publisher to invest in them, no one can match a major publisher’s combined efforts in publicity, production, and distribution.
It certainly is a brave new world. After changing so little for 75 years, the book industry is in for a wild ride.
Apropo of nothing that was a funny conversation between anonymous and anonymous. Was there a third anonymous? I lost track.
Once again, I have to agree with Steve Fuller.
Thank you, Steve, for the excellent comments. I take them seriously.
Mira,
I lost track too. I don’t know how many different people they are 😛
Yep, three ANONS in the last few minutes. I think Anon 7:35 and I were sisters or sister and brother in another lifetime.
OH, maybe 5 ANONS
Awwww, thanks, 7:16!
Maybe we anons should have our own writers’ blog called–what else?– The Anonymi. We could say we’re all the same writer, only the time is different. 😉
Best–
Anon 7:35
Word verification signifies what I’m supposed to be doing: workin
The Anonymi sounds like fun, and a place where people could say what they are actually thinking.
Mira,
There’s only one Anon 7:35: moi-meme, BarbS.
I’m having trouble signing in under my Google ID. The system tells me the function was already performed. Yeah, Right. My apologies for just leaving the Anonymous said hanging there and not signing myself.
Meanwhile, LOL, it must look like that scene in Spartacus, when all the captives are yelling, “I’m Spartacus! I’m Spartacus!”
All the Anonymi here are going, “I’m Anon! I’m Anon!”
Anon 7:16, again.(the original Anon)
I’m in. It’ll be like an AA meeting… instead of, “I’m Bill and I’m an alcoholic,.” We can start by saying, “I’m Anon and I write YA…”
🙂
Anon 8:33,
Heh heh, we’re joined somewhere in the Great Chain of Creativity!
Anon 7:35
(BarbS, on the verge of converting from Mac to PC)
7:16 and 8:40,
Come to think of it, our “voices” might give us away!
…All right, might give ME away, now that the anon-followers probably followed my reveal.
Any ideas?
7:35 😉
Lol.
Dara, I’m glad I’m not the only one. 🙂 I’m sure people have good reasons for posting anonymously, I just thought it was funny.
Too bad Satre didn’t live in the time of the internet. He could write a book (or even better, a play!) about anonymous talking to anonymous talking to anonymous.
Anonymously.
Mira and Dara,
Just had a waking nightmare:
Forgot which Anonymous I was. Am.
Guess we sound like a Marx Brothers production of The Stranger. (Darn, but I’d love to know the IDs of my fellow Anonymi!)
Anon 7:35 (BarbS),who really explained it all above! 😉
Wordverificaion: preedle.
Fantastic post … wonderful perspective! Thanks!
I am the anonymous who said: How do I feel? I feel like crap. Every site I go to asks for a different password so consequently I had to choose anonymous. I hate to think that in the future we might look back and say “those were the good old days”. user name starduster. Password: always incorrect.
I’m an enterprising first time author, and I’ve decided to self-publish to try to prove myself to an agent or traditional publisher. I’ve had so many requests from local book clubs, college professors, friends, mother’s groups, etc. for my book that I just couldn’t keep saying “It’s not ready.” My book, Receive Me Falling, will be out by the end of the month, I’ll hit the pavement to try to generate some good sales, and then use that to query agents. I’ve got a good feeling. Check out my gorgeous cover: http://www.erikarobuck.wordpress.com.
This could be the future of publishing. The process could be a bit different, but we’ll still need agents like you, Nathan, to peddle us to the publishers.
I chose to self publish. I just don’t need the stress of trying to get into the hallowed gates of NY right now. I didn’t need it to begin with, but now with the economy like it is, I definitely don’t need it.
I don’t think I could manage that stress very well and even if I got a contract I don’t think I’d be a very happy person with the constant pressure to perform or lose my contract.
I know up front, I have to have other money streams besides just fiction, so I’m trying to build a business that fits me and lets me do other things AND write and publish my fiction.
Plus I see so much potential opportunity here right now for indie authors, that I would never forgive myself if I didn’t ride this wave to see what I could do. Because I think I can do something with it and find my audience.
It has been interesting to see the tide of popular opinion slowly starting to shift in favor of indie authorship with less “you must not be good enough” derision.
I expect that tide of popular opinion to keep on turning. To me, this is the author version of what musicians did when they first started getting serious about being indie. And I’m very excited about it.
Ugh. I’m going to take an anti-depressant and try desperately to not slit my wrists.
Thanks for the information. We live in interesting times.
Mira…
LOL! Don’t prostitute my talent? That doesn’t mean I’m writing something I don’t like. In fact…I love it! I am coming from a background “as a reader”. Not so much a writer…So, I hope to fill the void that us “readers” want.
I worked retail sales managment in large companies for years. I am looking at the numbers, the genre, and what I love about stories. I like popular stories. So, that’s the kind of story and book I’m writing.
You gotta love these people who are all about the craft. The problem is…everyday readers look at so much more than that.
Newbee –
my comment wasn’t about the craft of writing. If writing mass market stories is your soul, right on! I’d say you’re lucky, actually.
I was talking more about integrity – writing from the inside out, rather than the outside in.
But if my comment doesn’t match for you, that’s cool.
Mira,
No worries. I got it… I understand what you are saying. I’m not the typical writer in my opinion. I feel like this came looking for me in many ways. I didn’t come looking for it.
[…]Agents are watching and waiting to see what happens with the ebook market. Last year, I remember reading a comment by Nathan Bransford that agents don’t consider ebooks a significant publishing credential, yet every other day now it seems he posts items related to the ebook market. Check out this quote:[…]