As you may have noticed from my gazillions of posts about the wonders of e-books and the future of publishing, I’m a rather relentless techno-optimist. I think the future is going to be better than the past, and I believe having more books out there in the market is a decidedly good thing. I’m counting down the days until there’s an invention that allows us to read five books at once.
At the same time, along with technological change comes major disruptions, and change is never even. There will inevitably be institutions and ways of life and old habits and jobs that will go by the wayside to make room for what’s to come. Even if things are better on the whole (and I really do think they will be), there are going to be good things that are lost as well.
So I thought I’d devote a post to what I personally think are some of the biggest challenges for publishers, agents, authors, readers, and bookstores.
Publishers: Relevancy
In the old era, only major publishers had the infrastructure to get books to readers. You had to go through them to reach readers in large numbers.
In the e-book era, that necessity is no longer going to be there, and the distribution advantage that publishers have enjoyed for a couple of centuries will be severely, if not completely, eroded. All of a sudden authors, big and small, are going to have the option of going it alone if they want to, and the value proposition that publishers provide is not as clear-cut.
I don’t think publishers are going to disappear entirely, and the package of services they bring to bear to produce a book is still unmatched. But if bestselling authors begin setting off on their own with regularity, it’s going to have major ramifications for publishers’ size and profitability.
Agents: Standardization
I don’t think agents are going away. You know that phrase about how a combative person could start a fight in an empty room? Well, agents could start a negotiation in an empty room.
I personally think the biggest threat to agents isn’t a decline of publishers – as I say whenever I’m asked, agents will negotiate with whomever is still around. As long as there are authors and readers, there will be someone getting the books to the readers, and authors will need agents to negotiate with those someones. And even in an era where agents aren’t the gatekeepers to the literary world, they’ll still have a role.
So what’s the biggest threat to agents? I think it’s standardization of terms.
Apple’s iTunes and App stores have been revolutionary in many respects, but perhaps the most revolutionary is the one-size-fits all 70/30 revenue split for all apps. Big, small, it’s 70/30. That 70/30 split is so powerful it even caused major publishers to adopt the model across the board for e-books.
If, hypothetically, advances largely go by the wayside and authors of the future are simply offered the same revenue split as everyone else and there’s no room for negotiation, agents may be necessary for only the biggest authors.
Bookstores: Survival
When bookstores are already struggling and facing a looming mass conversion to e-books, it doesn’t take a genius to see the challenges that bookstores will face. If you love bookstores: support them with your dollars please!
And my unsolicited advice for bookstores: you have a brand that people trust, and people will always need recommendations. Move that brand online as soon as possible, don’t hide from the e-book era and give people a reason to keep coming back.
Authors: Attention
I actually think authors have a good situation in the new era, because everyone will have a chance to be heard. But, unfortunately, not all chances are going to be created equal. There will still be a big difference between a book launched with a major publicity campaign and a book anonymously and quietly uploaded to Amazon.
In any situation where there is a great deal of choice people tend to retreat to trusted brands, and I think that’s going to be true of the new era. Megabestsellers and celebrities will continue to sell more, and everyone else may find it difficult to stand out.
But as Double Rainbow guy goes to show, hits can come out of nowhere. All it takes is a few people raving for a book to go viral and start spreading. And in the new era, word spreads faster than ever.
Readers: Confusion
I think some of the fears about a deluge of poorly written books are overblown. No one is going to have to go sifting through a huge pile of bad self-published books to find the good stuff. Besides, the era of the deluge is already here. There are millions of books out there and we are still able to find the good ones.
But there are going to be some challenges for readers. While I think anyone who wants a print book will be able to buy one for the foreseeable future, as bookstores close readers are going to have to find new ways of locating books, there could be format confusion and DRM frustrations, and territorial issues and glitches.
But ultimately I think readers will benefit the most from the new era. The more books there are to choose from the more likely it will be that the perfect ones for you are out there.
What do you think the challenges will be? What’s scariest about the new era?
Art: Illustration from “Bilderbuch für Kinder” (picture-book for children), edited by Friedrich Johann Justin Bertuch
Nathan,
Another great post in the conversation about publishing changes.
Rather than being frightened, I think it's a fabulous time to be a romance writer! I was first pubbed in 2008 with Samhain Publishing, an ebook and print pub. The very next year they teamed with Amazon and the other big online stores, and suddenly the world was my marketplace, not just the smaller number of shoppers who knew of Samhain.
As a mid-list author who occasionally makes it to the best-seller lists, I appreciate being part of not only a quality book production process, but having a place in their 'storefront'.
Do I plan to self-pub? Absolutely. Some of my RWA chapter mates, of whom you've probably never heard, because they are in just one of the sub-genres of the huge romance market, are making great money by pricing their ebooks low and keeping 70% of the profits. I would never consider doing so without the expertise of a free-lance editor and beta-readers, but I will do it.
Will I stay with Samhain? As long as they want me.
Would I like a Big 6 contract? Hmm, not sure anymore. As I said, great time to be an author.
Thanks for sharing your expertise and vision,
Cathryn Cade
http://www.cathryncade.com
I'm not sure about the agent entry (though you would, obviously, know more about this.) Although I agree with you about the standardization element, you didn't address film / tv / game rights, estate management, or the variables of contracts (and IDK a lot about that, but there must be more possible than 70/30.) Who, for example, handles JK Rowling? And, while the split makes sense for genre, how does it figure into literary fiction?
Anon-
Agents will definitely be needed for that, but only really for the biggest authors.
"So what's the biggest threat to agents?"
The biggest threat is that they aren't going to be the *gatekeepers* anymore. At least not in the same sense they have been. They are going to be the people who represent authors, not the people who decide what the public reads. And it's about time.
anon-
I disagree. Here's a post on that:
Agents are not just gatekeepers.
If the only role of agents were to function as gatekeepers, why do authors still need them once they're through the gate?
If the only role of agents were to function as gatekeepers, why do authors still need them once they're through the gate?
That is an outstanding question, but the more I watch the publishing industry flail, after studying up on it for the better part of the past decade (okay, studying is a generous term but bear with me), the more I think that all parts of the industry–agents, editors, publishers, distributors, booksellers, and even those authors who make it "through the gate"–act in a way that is loyal first and foremost to the publishing industry/mechanism, not to the artists or consumers the industry is meant to serve.
This is why, IMHO, consumers say they love independent bookstores but buy books at Amazon anyway and watch in sadness as the bookstores go out of business. This is why authors who've made it "through the gate" stand up to defend the benefits of "traditional publishing" and why many people decry self and independent publishing. It's why independent booksellers refuse to stock an independently published book if that book is produced by Amazon. These are behaviors that support the machine. In my humble opinion.
Consumers and authors on the outside of the gate don't exhibit those behaviors.
So, looking forward, when more authors choose to stay outside that gate, what role would agents have?
Peter-
People are definitely acting in their own self-interest. But most authors who have passed a certain threshold of sales/rights offers are more than happy to hand over 15% of their income to agents. I don't think that calculus will really change depending on where an author starts their career.
Someone who starts on the outside might well be more distrustful of the agents who passed on their work originally, but is a newly established author really going to choose to negotiate their own foreign rights and film deals and all the other deals, big and small, that come their way?
… is a newly established author really going to choose to negotiate their own foreign rights and film deals and all the other deals, big and small, that come their way?
Agreed on that. I don't think "distrustful" is really the appropriate word so much as finding that point of relevance. It will certainly be interesting to see how different agents evolve. We'll probably see a great diversification of approaches over the next decade, then some normalization. Certainly will be fascinating.
@Peter and @Nathan – Indie authors are negotiating TV and film deals – sometimes with agents, sometime with flat-rate fees via IP attorneys. The idea that agents are NECESSARY for film rights/foreign deals is not being borne out by the deals that are being negotiated now – especially with indie authors being approached by producers rather than the other way around.
I agree, Susan, but I'm not sure we're speaking in absolutes such as NECESSARY. There is definitely a spectrum out there, and at one end are those people who (legitimately) don't need an editor, cover designer, agent, or publicist. At the other end are people who for one reason or another will gladly pay for one, some, or all those services.
The agent's role as gatekeeper is going to be reduced (which was I think the original comment), which means to stay in business agents will have to remain relevant in others of those areas. I've seen this reflected in lots of speculation about agents becoming publicists, or agents becoming more like talent scouts, or agents becoming project managers to coordinate art, production, publicity. All these things are possible, I suppose.
I still believe that a lot of people involved in the traditional publishing business are behaving in ways that support the existing machine rather than ways that adapt and innovate.
@Peter
I still believe that a lot of people involved in the traditional publishing business are behaving in ways that support the existing machine rather than ways that adapt and innovate.
Agreed. I was mostly trying to point out that the "new established authors" that Nathan referred to are indeed making choices other than getting an agent to negotiate film/TV rights.
I can't even speculate as to how agents should/should not adapt to the changes going on in the industry. But the emerging trend that I see is a shift to author-centric services. If someone/somecompany brings value to the author, they're going to flourish as more authors are taking the "independent" title seriously.
(Did you see Jackie Collins is now self-publishing? Why? Because "everyone is doing it"!)
With the lost of some jobs will come others. I can see a whole new market for people with promotional skills. Also, I think there will be an expansion of reader sites and reviewer sites (Yes, there are lots now, but I think we'll have more and better sites) With the downsizing of major publishers, there will be as need for freelance editors, cover artists, and tech people. What a great time to be involved in publishing.
I agree with many of the comments made over the past couple of days. I am excited by Nathan's comments. It is a fabulous time to be a writer.
The bottom line for writers in the current climate remains the same… the main thing that writers do… is write.Self promotion can tap into those writing skills and organisational abilities.
Time spent editing, formatting, uploading and promoting takes away from your writing time.
The happy medium.. find a reputable publisher who edits, provides covers, give you a personal publicist and still gives you a good percentage of sales and you have the best.
I'm there and loving it.
Annie
Annie Seaton
http://annieseatonromance.com
"What do you think the challenges will be? What's scariest about the new era?"
1. Biggest Challenge – new authors, Amazon Kindle authors in particular, are going to have to learn how to build their own online platforms, acquire social media and online marketing skill sets and more. So, it goes far beyond just writing, editing, and publishing and those not up to the task will not make it.
2. Scariest thing – ignorance and people quitting before their dreams comes true.