I’ve been getting this question quite a bit lately. I guess it’s a bit boggling to the mind to think about the queries agents receive and to contemplate the authors behind them, and the sheer number of people out there working on books.
Are there really 15,000+ people a year querying agents? Are there really that many novels and memoirs and self-help books and alien encounters of the dubious kind? There are really that many people writing books? Really?
There’s only one way to answer this question: yes, there are. There really are.
But there’s a Part II to the answer, which is, as Kristin Nelson recently wrote: don’t worry about those other books out there.
It’s so tempting to feel as if your books is in competition with all of those other books on submission, not to mention the ones coming out by already-popular authors, and to be bogged down by the sheer impossible odds of it all. It’s temping to want someone else’s success story to be yours and to measure whatever success you’ve achieved against someone who has “made it.”
Don’t do it. The only person you’re in competition with is yourself. You can’t control how many people are out there, how many queries agents are getting, how many celebrities are writing books, etc. etc.
All you can control is your own work. Focus on that. The odds are just numbers. Don’t let them get you down.
Great advice! Yeah I don't let stats get to me. There are a lot of different factors influencing those. The bottom line is that someone will eventually see something in your book when it is ready.
I should also add that a perfect query letter is essential!
I think it's actually a double-edged sword for a writer. I mean, sometimes when I stand around in a Barnes & Noble and look at all the books surrounding me, I feel like my chances of making it are daunting, that I'm just not worthy. Of course, there are other times when I've had a super writing session that I find myself in the same surroundings thinking, I can do this! If all of these people can do, so can I!
Thanks for the encouragement, Nathan.
ian-
Well, I don't agree with the strategy that one should write what's selling at that moment. Chances are you're going to be too late. It's better to write what you love and write a great story even if it's not in a genre considered hot. Sure, you may still miss the market, but trying to time the market is impossible.
Thanks for that encouragement, Nathan!
<>< Katie
On the one hand, if you're trying to sell oranges to an apple distributer – doesn't matter how good the orange is.
On the other hand, if the apple sellers are like, "Sheesh, oranges, who wants those?" then perhaps it's time to look to someone who sells oranges, or sell them on your own.
Writers are in competition with themselves? Really? Who loses? I thought we were all in this together, trying to find our readers. Every person who reads Snooki's book is more likely to read yours than someone who doesn't read, eh?
I'd never thought about that question before I started writing myself. But now, when I tell people I'm working on a novel, it's amazing how many people say either (A), that their cousin's friend's uncle's neighbor just got published or (B), that they want to write a book, too.
And the online community of writers is pretty staggering in and of itself. Yes, there are a whooooole lot of us out here.
Thanks for this! I needed to hear it today! 🙂
Honestly, I thought I was in competition with way more than 15,000, since one out of every two Americans feel they should write a book–and only 15,000 in one year did? I actually feel ENCOURAGED by that number.
In re: market timing
I haven't seen any indications over the past few years that the publishing markets are prone to wild flights of fancy. Urban fantasy isn't going to go away tomorrow to be replaced by ninja sheep fantasy (although how cool would that be?). Slap a YA together and it will have a better shot than the same tale with a 40-ish character. Science fiction is dying off by leaps and bounds. You can write to the market, and most people do. If you write faster, perhaps you can take advantage of rising trends like steampunk, but I bet steampunk is still trending in a year, maybe longer.
A writer who can crank out a book in less than 12 months will be able to write what's selling and still have a better shot than one who just writes great ninja sheep tales and waits for them to become hot.
I guess my point is that yes, the market changes, but like anything else, it does so slowly and somewhat predictably
You're absolutely right. Only you have your own voice. Own it.
The Question: Are there that many people out there writing books?
The Answer: There are that many people out there typing…
This post made my whole day! I just submitted a manuscript yesterday (ah, the agony of waiting!) and all too often, I tell myself I'm going to fail just from the sheer number of other authors out there vying for the same thing.
😀 You can get rejected 1000 times but it only takes 1 acceptance to hit the top.
Besides, we're writers, right? We don't deal with numbers. So keep on truckin'.
But how many people are regular readers? What's the writer to obsessive reader ratio?
Wonderful post. It's nice to remember that we're writing because we enjoy it.
I was going to use that question as my crutch and limp away without making a comment becasue, you know, 63 comments. How can my comment be noticed among so many. Of course that would have meant that I learned nothing from your post. Well said. Very positive.
My heart goes out to anyone who has worked really hard on a well crafted original tale with solid writing skill that can't get it published.
At that point you have to take stock of your own soul and sense of purpose and pat yourself on the back for having the courage to dream the dream and see it through. You truly become a writer when you have pieces of work you have declared as "finished."
The rest to phrase it harshly is cult of personality bullshit compared to dreaming the dream all the way to completion. I enjoy N,s board because its a good cross section of people-artists and he also has taken the plunge into dreaming a dream and working it to the finish line.
Eventually we all get old and die. Maybe our stories live in our (hopefully) eternal souls like gardens of dreams we had the courage to build and one day own forever.
I was also surprised that it's only 15,000.
If you chunk it down — consider the market segmentation (fiction v. non-fiction, all the genres) you will realize that there are very few you compete directly against. How many are actually writing what you write (paranormal romance, cozy mystery, police procedural thriller)?
If you look at specific audiences and genres you really are talking about 10-50 other writers dominating your specific market (in most cases). Study their work and write to their standard (or higher, in some genres that's not hard to do).
15,000? No, not even close. Seriously. It's all in how you look at those numbers. For each one of us — depending on what we write — it's far less. In my genre it is only about 20-3 active good writers, so the door is wide open. Readers are searching and snapping up everything they can find. That's why my books are selling so well.
Take a look at your real competition, and I think you'll find it isn't nearly as daunting.
With 300 million people just here in the U.S. your chances of someone buying your book looks pretty good, even if less than half are the type who buy a book now and then.
Coach Bransford, I need you to help me tell myself (whom I'm in competition with) to get my ass moving. It's getting late. I've wasted so many years not doing what I should be doing and instead trying to do that other thing and being stressed out about not doing what I want to be doing. Tell myself to just do it already. Thanks, coach.
Such a true post. I find myself freaking out because I see all of these people pumping out books and querying multiple projects over the course of the year and I'm just trying to get a first draft completed!
I had to really take a step back and realize that my book will be better if I follow my OWN pace and not the pace of others. I have to remind myself of that every so often, though…
That's how I looked at it!
So, how many are querying publishers? I bet that number is even higher.
I agree with writing the story you're passionate about *when* you're passionate about it. If you don't, if you write based on a trend (even *if* you could predict the market, publishing takes time)your work will be sub-par because your heart wasn't in it. If you're writing just to make a name for yourself or the money (yes, I heart $ just as much as the next median income girl does) then you're in the wrong business, in my opinion anyway. When I write, I live and breathe my story, the characters, and their lives…because that's what *I* love in reading a book. I want to read a book that catches me up in a current so strong that I forget I'm not really there, that it's fiction. You can't do that if you're writing something you feel "Eh…" about. And yes, the numbers can be daunting and getting rep-ed/published sometimes feels this side of no way in hell, but, really, ask yourself, "Why am I writing and who am I writing for?" If I love the story, that's what ultimately matters, if I get published, well, that's a freaking hell of a bonus!
Nathan:
That photo on this post … Churchill and Atlee on VE Day, perhaps from balcony at B. Palace?
JK Rowling submitted to 12 agents before the 13th took her. I think Stephanie Meyer submitted to 15 before one took her. Twelve people told JK Rowling, "We can't take a chance on this, it's not commercially viable."
The fact is, no one knows for sure what's commercially viable. A funny, charming, intelligent book about boy wizards that one might think would do fabulously as a follow-up to Harry Potter might do only so-so for no reason anyone can easily discern. On the flip side, fourteen years ago someone said "Whoever heard of wizard school? That's not what's selling right now. But… I love this story, maybe it's worth a shot."
I think that if you have a good book, and you have a rather liberal measure of patience, it will find a home no matter what the market currently is.
A lot of people talk about writing a book, but few of those complete the task.
Some of these new writers swelling the query lines are from other professions and are experts in their fields. Time will determine if they can succeed in writing fiction.
I don't let the numbers get me down. I just keep writing.
Thank you.
So glad to hear this Nathan. Yesterday's blog had me down, but this one pumped me up, so thanks for that!
I definitely freak out about the number of writers out there sometimes. Maybe it's because I'm so involved in the young adult writing blogosphere with my own blog, but I feel like EVERYONE is writing YA right now!
Still, you're right. You can't worry about what you can't control. The best thing is to relax, try your best, and just write!
I'm glad that so many people are spending time writing and building hopeful aspirations. The happiest times of my life were when creating, and I think this is true for others as well. It's great that so many are tapping into their creative and spiritual sides as this is surely where all true inspiration comes from. I think the writing process is good for us: encourages us to think and not merely follow trends and current philosophies without thinking for ourselves, but to add to the culture ourselves. It encourages us to believe in ourselves and our talents and also helps us to understand other people. The whole creative process is a win-win, I think – as long as we don't allow ourselves to be defeated by despair if success doesn't come. It's the journey where the true rewards lie on many levels.
15,000 queries a year sounds overwhelming, and no doubt FEELS overwhelming when you’re on the receiving end, like Nathan. But compared to the US population (300 million) it’s just one in 20,000 people, or about six people in the city of Cork, where I live (and which is in Ireland, but will serve as a statistical example).
The photo? Nathan most famous client, of course. Who was written off by his teachers as an idiot but became one of history’s greatest leaders. Who had a very obvious stammer but became possibly the greatest orator ever. Not to mention one of the twentieth century’s most prolific and successful authors.
Ian, Ninja Sheep Fantasy? Definitely The Next Big Thing! BAAAAHHHH!!!!!
It seems like a lot more than that.
Thank you for posting this. These are the right words at the right time for me.
I appreciate the pep talk. Thank you.
15,000? Per year? Really? It cannot possibly be that low, can it? For some reason I thought one agency was fielding that many queries every year.
Are you people inflating how hard you're working Nathan?
Just kidding. As usual you make a great point. And your sage advice is very factual and makes much sense. But you also manage to tap into a writer's heart and soul as only you can do my man.
Thank you so much for motivating us to do our best over and over again. And I know it's not just smoke. You really do believe what you write here.
I've been following long enough to know that for sure.
There is only one person who cam write my novels, after all, and sometimes it takes a little reminder that the numbers and the chum don't mean spit when it all comes down to the marrow.
Bravo, sir, and thanks.
The 15,000 number is very unscientific. That's just my very rough estimate for the number of queries I receive each year. It doesn't count all the other people out there who are moving to self-publishing, who don't query me, etc. etc. There are way more writers out there than that. Should have been more specific.
A kindly message. thank you,Sir, I needed that!
Nathan,
I wasn’t disagreeing with your post. I was in a hurry this afternoon, and was just responding to something that Allison and Ian said because I think their point was also relevant. When a writer’s struggling to keep on going, it isn’t enough to keep in mind that you only have control over your own writing. A writer really needs to keep in mind that, even if they exert tremendous control over their own writing and raise their skill level to an excellent level, it might not matter. The book might still only be eligible for a drawer or self-publishing because it’s not a popular enough topic or style.
As for myself, I’m actually practicing what your Blog recommended today. I’ve been writing and editing like crazy, have pulled myself almost entirely off the Internet for a while, and am determined to concentrate as much as possible on the novel I’m writing. I’m not thinking about the competition or anything else like that. It’s been fun!
"Don't do it. The only person you're in competition with is yourself. You can't control how many people are out there, how many queries agents are getting, how many celebrities are writing books, etc. etc.
All you can control is your own work. Focus on that. The odds are just numbers. Don't let them get you down."
Thank you!!!!
I may have to write a book right up your alley so I can query you one day. Even if I don't, I will send you a nice thank you note when my ship comes in. You certainly make the voyage worth all the fiery hoops that we must jump through.
Thank you, again and again.
Two thoughts:
If you don't play, you can't win.
And if you don't enjoy the game, you might want to quit playing.
Of course I want to be published, to have my work read. But whether or not that happens, or happens soon, or happens in the way I expect or hope? I won't regret a single revision. Not a word, even. The thought of not writing is what really gives me the creeps.
Remember Larry, the Billy Crystal character in THROW MOMMA FROM THE TRAIN? He was a teacher of creative writing. Every day, he told his class, "Writers write." 'nuff sed?
When I read how many tens of thousands of books are published every year, and I see some of the absolute crap hitting the shelves, it seems to put the odds into perspective.
Old Salt
"There are way more writers out there than that"
Man, what's up? Stop freaking people out. Go take your vacation, my man. Relax.
I found this strangely depressing and comforting at the same time. There really are 15,000 people querying out there? Crap. But phew, I don't have to worry about them – I can just focus on writing the best book I can.
I guess I should get back to writing the best book(s) I can, then.
Only 15,000 per year? Is that an accurate figure for number of queries that an agent receives for an entire year? That sounds so low. From the way agents discuss queries, I always assumed it was much higher than that. In independent film companies, producers receive a higher number of complete scripts per year.
Wise words Nathan. Easy to get caught up in the "competition" thing in the beginning. Now, I don't pay attention. My novel and what I do to make it stand out and well written it what matters to me. It has to pass my own "reader" test and I'm one tough customer.
Lets get the headdesk out of the way first.
*Headdesk*
15000 to ONE AGENCY! say there are 150 agencies in the US (god knows how many there really are) of differing sizes and workloads. Guestimate that 1 in 10 of that 15000 haven't been shopped to another agent…..do the maths….it equals 225000 novels a year plus the initial 15000. 240K, or about 1 american in 1250.
Secondly: how does one know books better than what is being published are getting turned away daily? (Aside from the odd one that slips through the net, which, statistically, there always will be in a rejection pile of 214900, and is successful through self publishing). How do you KNOW there are soooo many good novels remaining unpublished?
And lastly: Can we PLEASE stop using Potter/Meyer's rejection folder as evidence that publishers know nothing. As rebuttal, I give you….(drum Roll)…Kurt Warner!!!
Considered the Greatest undrafted player of all time, was stacking shelves prior to winning the Superbowl, valued MVP and breaking the Superbowl passing record in the process, 12 year career and now has more money than god.
So using this fantastically warped logic:
– The NFL draft system is broken and should be scrapped
– The dozens of scouts working for each of the NFL teams obviously know nothing and should all be sacked
– The NFL should be going back to every player who went for a trial between the ages of 10 and 16 and re-evaluating them based on their technical skill, not their effectievness in game situations.
Is that what you're saying? No? Didn't think so.
Supply, Demand, Choice. There are as many hopefuls applicants to the few NFL places as there are authors to the shelves of the bookstore. Sometimes someone slips through the net because a HUMAN BEING has to choose between 1000 people to fill 1 spot.
Nathan's point is that the fluid nature of publishing means that that 1 slot today could be 6 tomorrow, improving your chances. So just be glad you aren't looking for a certain number on a jersey.
I Leave you with Stephen King, oracle of all things great – "[To get published] you have to be at the right place, at the right time. As we can't know when the right time is, our job [as writers] is to get to the right place and stay there."
Thanks, Nathan!
I agree. Mind and experience is as individual as the fingerprint. No matter how many people are writing, no one else can say what I have to say the way I will say it. Say, say, say what you want (per Paul McCartney).
Put that together with talent and skill and I ain't a-sairt.
compare pimp my novel's contra:
it's who you know.
Of course, 15,000 is a super low number. There have to be way, way more writers out there than that. One of my friends who's an author and writing teacher has more than 25,000 subscribers to his newsletter. Just looking at the follower count on popular writing blogs and Twitterers – and knowing there are thousands of writers out there that aren't even visible on the internet – leads me to believe that there must be a half a million writers at any given time pursuing publishing.
But maybe I'm just biased because of the overwhelming nature of my personal inbox each day.
98% of those writing books are doing so in the erroneous belief that publication is the royal road to riches.
If the public knew the truth about how poorly compensated most authors are, including the ones whose books appear in stores, there would be a lot less people writing them.
But agents and editors hide the truth about the size of most deals and the public hears only about that handful of authors receiving the multimillions.