One of the more interesting aspects of reading thousands of queries over the course of the year is seeing the trends. You’d be surprised at how many queries I receive that use the same plots, the same titles, and use the same pitches (the alleged Harry Potter “void” being the most prominent sales pitch). Taking a look at queries in broad strokes gives me a bizarre, fleeting (and possibly misleading) sense of the writerly and cultural mood of the moment.
The trends fall into three categories. The most obvious and prevalent one is the copycat trend — a book is popular and I see a bazillion queries imitating what was popular. You name a popular book, trust me, I’ve seen 50 queries that were more or less exactly like that book only slightly different. Currently in vogue for imitation: Eckhart Tolle and THE SECRET.
The second category is the ripped from the headlines trend — whatever big events have recently occurred, sure enough, I’ll see projects that are trying to capture that lightning in a book, whether it’s a straightforward treatise on the subject or an allegorical tale that plays out our current dramas (often in outer space). First it was terrorism, then came the religion/theocracy projects, then the totalitarian government work, now I’m seeing a lot of Obama-esque stories. Just to be clear, I’m not necessarily knocking pulling stuff from headlines as they are a rich vein of material that we’re all experiencing. It’s all about the execution.
The third category is a bit more inexplicable and tantalizing. And this is the “simultaneous thought” type of query that doesn’t necessarily have a root in a popular book, but nevertheless keeps showing up again and again.
My favorite example of this third category is the glut of vampire queries I began seeing around 2005-2006. Around that time, all of a sudden I got a ton of vampire queries, and there wasn’t quite an explanation for it. Yes, there was “Buffy the Vampire Slayer” and Laurell K. Hamilton and Christopher Moore and Anne Rice and all the other successful vampire projects that were already out there, but there wasn’t a particular project that had quite risen to the level of success where it could have prompted so many query imitators. I kept telling my friends that vampires were going to be the next big thing.
Then THE HISTORIAN came along, and I thought, “ah ha!” You see! People love vampires! And, well, then it kept right on going, possibly cresting (or maybe just continuing its crescendo) with the TWILIGHT series. So in this case, I really think the glut of vampire queries was actually a harbinger of a cultural moment.
So what am I seeing double and triple and quadruple of these days? Would you believe Mayans and overweight women?
First, I’ve received at least a dozen queries that somehow involve the fact that the Maya calendar ends in 2012. The particular horrors unleashed by this event vary, but this is the starting point for many an adventure novel. The calendar is ending and boy are those Mayans pissed!
Second, all of a sudden I’ve been receiving a whole lot of women’s fiction with overweight protagonists. “Ugly Betty” maybe? Has there been a successful book that went under my radar? I don’t know!
Just to be clear, I don’t think anyone who has written a book in these molds should necessarily chuck their laptop out the window — you actually might be onto something. I’m also not automatically rejecting a query just because I’ve seen the idea before — like I said, it’s all about the execution.
But I’m honestly not quite sure what to make of these two. While the Mayan calendar is part ripped from headlines, part DA VINCI CODE meshing of current adventure with past history/conspiracy, ultimately it’s somewhat explainable as a trope. Apocalypse, danger, Mayans… what’s not to like??
It’s the overweight chick lit/women’s fiction that really intrigues me, particularly since it runs so counter to the normal chick lit mold where women tend to desire mainstream/elite brands, lifestyles, and self-image. Sometimes these queries do fall into that aspirational category as a makeover story in which the overweight woman creates a new, improved self, but other times they stay proud of who and how they are.
So are these coming cultural moments? I’m not sure, but you can bet I’m going to be looking closely to see what happens.
Margaret Yang says
There is a popular kind of romance novel with a plus-size heroine (The rubenesque romance) that is a steady seller. Could that be crossing over to chick lit? Or maybe it’s because so many Americans are overweight, and people want to read about people like themselves?
If we see a big bestseller with a plus-size heroine, we can say we heard it here first.
As for the Mayan calendar thing. Zzzzzz. I’m kinda sick of hearing about that already and it is only 2008.
Lynne says
Mayan calendar prompted 2 of my friends to wonder what they should do with their retirement savings. Not.
I echo Margaret’s analysis. Snore.
Plus-size heroine? That would echo the trend on tv shopping channels to drag in beautiful, gorgeous, fantastic…women who are overweight.
I guess if we’re planning to go out with clogged arteries, we’ll do it in
‘trendy’ clothes. THE BOOK THIEF arrived from locally-owned Book World. Cost $3.99. Looking forward to getting to know the narrator.
In trendy, plus-size clothes.
Anonymous says
Just today, I read on another agent blog that she had also received a high number of overweight/plus-size heroine queries. Must be something in the water. I would like to think that these books aren’t particularly focused on the weight of the character but a “real” story. I would like to relate to characters on some level, but I really don’t know if I care about their physical attributes all that much. Is the story compelling? Are the characters standing out? How’s the plot? That’s what I want to know.
Mark Terry says
I don’t quite “get” the vampire thing, although my just finished YA adventure novel has a bad guy who thinks he’s a vampire.
I suspect, especially as the current Stephinie Meyers (is that how her name is spelled?), that Stephen King had it right in Dance Macabre when he said the appeal of vampires is that it’s all about sex from the neck up.
Lauren says
The novel said to be the original chick-lit book had a plus-sized heroine. Yup, Bridget Jones. Maybe now that seemingly every other possible type of chick lit heroine has been written, published, sold, pulped, imitated, etc., people have come back around to where the genre started in the first place? It’s an interesting cycle for a genre that people say is in its dying throes.
Nathan Bransford says
Ha! Great point, Lauren. So many chick lit novels came after BRIDGET JONES that I forgot that that was the trope for the book that started it tall.
Scott says
I remember a year or so ago (guessing, I don’t remember exactly), Jenny Rappaport blogged about wishing she could see books with an overweight heroine. I don’t remember whether she actually said “overweight,” really. It was more like heroines who were built like real women, with curves and real-woman dimensions, if I remember right. And I think she wanted these real-world women to be just as sexy as the playmate types.
It stuck with me, for some reason. Was she foreseeing a trend? Did she inspire some of her blog readers to write about that kind of a heroine, and you’re seeing the results?
Or is it just some of that weirdness that the universe throws at us once in a while.
At least I think it was Jenny. Since I can’t find it, I’m not feeling as confident as I was when I started this comment.
Susan Helene Gottfried says
Think, too, about Meg Cabot’s Size Twelve is Not Fat — she’s now got an entire series based on her Heather Wells character.
Merry says
I don’t think the overweight heroines is such an odd thing… maybe it’s just the pendulum swinging back. Unhealthy thin is finally starting to be seen as a bad thing by a lot of women, maybe it just has to do with a lot of writers seeing negative impact from the impossible body image in media…
The Mayan thing, I have no idea why so many, but you’d think it might be a little late to try selling that type of plot. Figure if the book was even picked up today, it would be slated for release in, what? 2010. If it took a year to sell it, it’s hitting shelves 2011 – what happens when the world doesn’t end? Won’t readers lose interest?
Anonymous says
Note to self: Don’t query Nathan with your Overweight Mayan Vampire Novel, “Human Snacrifice.”
Anonymous says
I know I know a fat vampire chic!!
She eats the Mayan calendar and and
this Mayan dude, he can’t stand it, so he wants to marry her so she’ll go on a calendar reduction diet, it’s the latest fad, and it really works, its a billion dollar a year business already!!! (go to our website and order nOW, two for one!) and then there is this concha line (something like that) of slimmed hot Mayans re-emerging into civilization (no heads rolling) and Simon Cowell (okay, some heads rolling) is giving them screen tests while Madonna is thinking about a lip-sync video where she adopts one or two of them in front of the nightly news and then and then the earth blows a gasket and these little green pods come out of the ground after fifteen million years. It’s a trend I tell you! A trend!
Anonymous says
I think it has to do with the fact that with the explosion of agent blogs, the writers and agents are communicating more closely on what is supposedly marketable, which results in a herd mentality to copy the latest “in” thing.
Query’s are posted for everyone to “critique” (ie check out the story idea), along with lists of agents who are “currently seeking books on xyz,” and the latest PW and Amazon rankings on given titles and genres.
So because these blogs are all frequented by the same herd of writers, most of whom are willing to write pretty much whatever they think they can sell, you start to see a lot of the same stuff–it’s a distillation of the collective writers’ hive mind.
To draw a parallel with a different creative field, if you’ve ever visited one of the linline stock photagraphy where they pay you a fee to include your photo in a stock database, and the more downloads it gets sby customers, the more you get paid…well, invariably what happens is the top sellers are imitated–if that week’s top selling photo is of a roll of toilet paper, there will be a run on photos featuring common bathroom items. In other words, these photographers are just out to make a buck any way they can by taaking pictures, they are not shsooting for themselves, but for the market; i.e., it’s a J-O-B.
It’s pretty much the same thing with the genre fiction writers/wannabes who frequent the agent blogs. And I’m not saying that’s bad or good, I’m only making an observation. It’s much different than writing the things you truly want to write, and then hoping that you can sell them.
Sam Hranac says
Ideas are air-born. “Simultaneous thought” bit me a while back. After requesting my full, one agent told me she thought the subject of tooth fairies must be in the air because she was seeing manuscripts staring them quite a bit (2 years ago). Each had a different slant (as did mine) but she didn’t want to try and pitch another one.
Heidi says
I just read an article a few months ago about Jennifer Weiner’s new release, Certain Girls, which features a “festively plump” woman, apparently a sequel to her “festively plump” Good In Bed heroine. Much was made to do in the review about choosing the main character to be “a fat, middle-aged woman.”
Maybe people are just trying to be different like Jennifer. You know, because copying something that is unique and defies the trends is different until everyone is doing it. Then it’s just trendy.
(There was sarcasm there… I’m not sure that comes across with you seeing my eyes rolling)
Anonymous says
I personally have been noticing a trend of the most un-spiritual people on the planet suddenly posing that they are going spiritual.
I mean mean people. Really, really mean people are out there celebrating the solstice and sending e-amails about horoscopes.
What is happening?
Brian says
Define “successful book.” Sue Ann Jaffarian’s Odelia Grey mystery series has a solid fan base but it’s not a New York Times bestseller. It’s the one overweight female protagonist series I can think of with a degree of popularity.
Nathan Bransford says
Brian-
Tricky question. Usually when I’m getting similar queries with a very regular frequency, the books people are imitating are on the level of HARRY POTTER or THE DA VINCI CODE or Eckhart Tolle or something on that level of popularity. That’s not to say that there aren’t other people out there imitating other successful books and authors, but for something to be common enough for me to notice it as a query trend it usually is a massively successful book rather than something that is merely successful.
So getting back to the overweight women trend, there are definitely some possible influences, but nothing that you could point to and say THIS is what is driving it. It’s probably a combination of the factors that people are mentioning in this comments thread, but it’s still a bit of a mystery to me.
Heather B. Moore says
Funny about the Mayan stuff. I have a book coming out in a couple of months that has Maya people in it (but it’s during 100 BC), so there’s no mention of any calendar. I guess I missed the boat. LOL.
The TWILIGHT series was probably the first vampire books I read. It didn’t really convert me to read more vampire books, just to keep up with what everyone else is reading.
pjd says
I see an opportunity for a series here. The heroine starts off as a size 1, and each book she gains a size. Not sure what the plot is yet, but by the time she’s a size 12, it’s a sure-fire best seller bonanza.
On a more serious note, the “simultaneous thought” phenomenon is not limited to literature. It is not a reactive, “herd mentality” thing–that’s for the unimaginative people who fall into the first two of Nathan’s categories. Anyone who was involved in technology in the 80s and 90s witnessed the simultaneous thought phenomenon over and over again. One really creative idea (or treatment of an existing idea) would surface in three or four wildly different locations at the same time.
And this phenomenon goes back a long time.
Julie Weathers says
“Would you believe Mayans and overweight women?”
So, a book with an overweight Mayan heroine is probably the next big thing. Wonder if I can do a few revisions here and there with mine.
cc says
Scott Smith’s horror book, THE RUINS, had Mayan people in it, as four American tourists in Mexico venture off to find some ancient ruins and all hell ensues. Great book. Haven’t heard of any other Mayan stuff, though.
Trend of overweight heroines? Maybe its the natural reaction to the cultural overload of the skinny heads-on-a-stick Paris Hilton, Nicole Richie vomit inducing entertainment coverage?
Anonymous says
Steve Alten’s DOMAIN series deals with the Mayan 2012 prophecy.
JohnO says
Imagine my smug comfort in knowing that my manuscript is nowhere near any of those … now imagine my smug comfort in knowing it may be so original as to be (neologism alert!) unagentable.
Lynne says
Some truly great analysis going on here. Vampire fat chick on a calendar reduction diet, Mayan conga line, and
series potential, as per pdj. Starts tiny, gains a size every book. All worthy of applause. Thank you. I shall change my outlook on life and re-write my sad, thin little book.
Crikey. Where do we get: ‘I can’t believe this is extra-calorie butter!’
Anonymous says
SCHEDULED TO LIVE
Paranormal thriller, 75K words (comment if interested in rights)
On the Mayan Doomsday in 2012, one vampire learns that he will have a chance to become mortal again. While the world faces prophesied disaster, the Undead get ready to live….again.
But when an American archaeologist leading an excavation to the Mayan ruins discovers a shadowy link to her own haunted childhood, she must overcome her growing eating disorder to keep the Mayan prophecy where it belongs: in the past.
Erik says
The trends are fascinating, I have to admit, but what percentage of queries are starkly original and fit into none of these categories?
And what percentage of them really got your attention?
Just curious. I know no one has a plot like mine (which is why I’m doing it!)
Tom Geller says
Side comment: Could we please use a word other than “overweight”? “Fat” is fine — it’s true, descriptive, and non-comparative. “Overweight” is like saying Eminem is “underblack”.
Back to your original point. I think there *is* a social change that’s resulting in more fat protagonists. Changing definitions of “overweight” mean that a *majority* of people are in that category — or, at least, believe themselves to be.
If a 12% (black) or 5% (gay) segment of the population can be a market force, then certainly a majority slice will make a difference. Don’t you think?
Add to this the effect of “the fatosphere” — fat bloggers tracking lies and absurdities within the diet industry, and the futility of changing one’s body type — and you get more people willing to identify with and accept fat protagonists. IMHO, natch.
Jackie says
any Cultural Anthropology intiugues me. Although ancient civilizations seem quite crude, I can understand their desires to understand and express the super natural. ie Mayan, Aztec, Egyption, European…
Anonymous says
Re: Tom Geller —
Eminem is “underblack?”
Oh, hell, I’ve just choked on my ice tea.
What a hoot! 🙂
Mark D. says
Hey, correct me if I’m wrong, but haven’t the Mayans already had their doomsday?
I mean their callendar was off by about 500 some years, no?
Anonymous says
Instead of "overweight":
corpulus, big-boned, obese, chunky, chubby, plus-size, full-figured, large, big & tall, big, hefty, meaty, porker, pig, "stastistical outlier with respect to weight distribution"
Jackie says
@ ANON glad I am not fat, I get the feeling you would not approve??? lmao
Anonymous says
How about: Living Large? Literally.
Jackie says
I would prefer to have the perks of “living large” but not the weight…lyposuction, lots
Jackie says
take that fat belly (I use to be fat), squish it together and what do you have? It looks to be a babys butt
Anonymous says
Now I know why I haven’t gone out of the house in over forever, ordering delivery and huffing and puffing to that darned do-it-or-it’s-your-head-
next-in-the-basket!
Mayan weightloss nazi on that video
(I got two for one for $19.98, two easy payments).
Dear oh Dear, but someone Loves Bridgett Jones!! There is hope after all! Nice properly dressed English solicitor.
I will not eat any more calendars!
I will not!
Authors write!!!!!
Nathan hold your nose. We need this stuff!
Oh dear, I am bleeding. That darned vampire snuck in the house again.
Chris says
To be fair to those authors who are querying about “copycat” novels, it should be noted that copycat novels sell. They get on bestseller list’s. they get made into equally bad movies.
Both the publishing industry and the film industry seem to have the same quasi-divination cum water witch dowsing ability. Which is to say virtually none. And so we all get a lot of similar books, a lot of sequels, a lot of otherwise unimaginative crap.
After the Da Vinci Code came out there were several “copycat” novels that then hit the best seller list, to say nothing of the cottage industry of books about the stupid Da Vinci code.
Writer’s are trying to do the same thing the industry does, hedge their bets by coming up with similar books that can ride on the success of others.
Don’t blame the player, Nathan, blame the game.
That said, I actually didn’t write one of these Xerox books, but I’d bet I’d have better luck getting mine read if I had.
And yes, I do know the lag time between writing and publishing but you still seem the same cycles of popularity. The key is to be a copyist, but one about five minutes behind the curve. Then, perhaps you’ll have the right clone for the right time.
I’m willing to bet vaguely spiritual pseudo-philosophy fiction such as The Celestine Prophecy will soon become popular again.
Write yours today!
Jackie says
@ Chris a couple decades before The Da Vinci Code there is The Knostic Gospels…The Da Vinci Code is a spin off
Nathan Bransford says
Chris-
Don’t blame the game, blame the people who buy books and go to the movies. If copycat books are bestsellers it means people are buying them over all the books that are published, including the ones that are wholly original. Which means publishers are just giving readers what they want.
Jackie says
personally, I don’t think blame should be placed anywhere. Each person is on their own, entitled, path of life. Each journey, wether it be a copycat book or anything, they have the right to the journey with or without anothers approval. Nothing can be learned in life without living it
Joel Sparks says
It’s 2012, and the Mayan overlords have returned to restart the world — by destroying civilization. Then archaeology student Chandra “Chunk-Style” Stevens learns that the Mayan lords will only obey a “Great Queen” who weighs more than their sacred calendar stone — and it’s made of solid gold!
Simon Haynes says
“If it took a year to sell it, it’s hitting shelves 2011 – what happens when the world doesn’t end? Won’t readers lose interest?”
And if it DOES end, there won’t be any chain stores to sell it from.
(Personally I’m in the ZZZZ category with the whole 2012 thing. I enjoyed the Graham Hancock books but I don’t think I’d be lining up to watch the movie. And hey, maybe the Mayans just thought 2012 was a good place to stop. Or maybe with leap seconds it’s actually ending tomorrow and it’s too late for everything now.)
Sprizouse says
I just wrote a manuscript about an overweight female vampire. She was too heavy to get a date with other vampires (most male vamps look like Tom Cruise, Antonio Banderas and Brad Pitt, so she was definitely SOL). She ends up going on vacation to Mexico and burying herself in human necks to overcome her sadness.
Unfortunately she’s vacationing in an area of the Yucatan where the last remaining group of Mayan heritage Mesoamericans still live.
She ends up wiping out the whole village… very sad 🙁
But what’s more sad is that I’ll have to toss the whole ‘script in the garbage… stoopid copycatters!
Jackie says
Nostrodamus; fate can be changed
Erik says
Chris and Nathan:
Yes, people apparently do want copycat books, and there’s no reason the industry shouldn’t give the buyers what they want.
However – there has to be an investment in the Next Big Thang as well. What’s the best balance? I sure don’t know.
What it comes down to for the writer is what they want to do with their writing. If you’re in it to be a writer, then you probably stay safe. If you have something to say, as I do, you go for the next trend rather than the last.
As a publisher? Not my job, but if they aren’t investing in new stories and new voices I’d say the industry is dying. Given the way sales and profits are going, they appear to be less likely to make that investment all the time. That smells like a death spiral to me.
I know where I’m at in the big picture. I only hope there’s room for me. We’ll see.
Anonymous says
I read a commentary by some presumably tuned-in Native American shaman type, who said that the Mayans divided time into these big long and accurate astronomical chunks, but that the end of that specific calendar had about as much meaning in the big-picture as the end of a standard 365 day Julian calendar. That is, when one calendar comes to its end, the next kicks-in. Big Deal.
Erik says
Anon, you are completely correct about the Maya Calendar. I didn’t go into it before because it’s so ridiculous to even talk about it. We are indeed doomed, but it has a lot more to do with Citi’s derivative position than the Maya.
sex scenes at starbucks says
Joel, you forgot, they’re Mayan vampire overlords…
abc says
Funny that you bring up the overweight women thing. I was just watching Denise Richards proclaim herself “fat”. Wha? I felt depressed after that. For all of humanity.
Man, did I just admit to watching It’s Complicated?
incaseanyonesinterested says
Wally Lamb’s “She’s Come Undone,” featuring a fat protagonist (though she does lose weight in the course of the novel) was published in 1992, preceding Bridget Jones by four years.