• Skip to main content
  • Skip to primary sidebar

Nathan Bransford | Writing, Book Editing, Publishing

Helping authors achieve their dreams

  • Blog
  • Writing Advice
  • Publishing Advice
  • About
  • Take a Class
  • Get Editing

No, E-book Sales Are Not Declining

April 25, 2013 by Nathan Bransford

An idea has taken root in the bookosphere that e-book sales have peaked as the people who want e-books buy e-books and the people who want print continue to buy print. This may be spurred along by a January article by Nicholas Carr arguing that the e-book bubble has burst.

This is not remotely the case. E-book sales aren’t declining. E-book sales percentage growth is declining. These are two very, very different things.

The 6.2% rise in book sales in 2012 were propelled to an increase by e-book sales, and in fact, e-book sales for children’s books more than doubled. E-book sales were up 41% in 2012. This is less in percentage terms than the exponential 100%+ growth that was seen in previous years, but it still represents a significant rise in sales.

What is misleading about fixating on percentage growth is that it’s looking at a market that started at zero five years ago.

Take these stats from the AAP:

E-book sales increase 41% in 2012
E-book sales increase 117% in 2011
E-book sales increase 164% in 2010

Seems like things are really slowing down right?

Let’s look at those numbers again in real terms:

E-book sales in 2012: $1.3 billion (+$330.1 million)
E-book sales in 2011: $969.9 million (+$528.6 million)
E-book sales in 2010: $441.3 million (+$274.4 million)
E-book sales in 2009: $166.9 million

Yes, 2011 was a huge increase. But growth in 2012 (41%) was still greater than in 2010, when it represented a 164% increase.

Here’s what that looks like in chart form:

That doesn’t look like a decline to me.

UPDATE: As David Gaughran notes in the comments, the AAP’s stats don’t count self-published e-books, which could account for as many as 25% of all e-book sales.

Filed Under: Business of Publishing Tagged With: E-books, publishing industry

Reader Interactions

Comments

  1. RaShelle Workman says

    April 25, 2013 at 4:24 pm

    Great data. Thanks for breaking it down.

  2. Nicholas Lovell says

    April 25, 2013 at 4:31 pm

    That post is by Nicholas Carr. Not Paul Carr.

    Which is quite a big difference.

    And he discussed it further in his blog, where he backed away a little from the WSJ piece.

  3. Nathan Bransford says

    April 25, 2013 at 4:32 pm

    Whoops! Thanks, Nicholas.

    And yeah, I think there was debunkage that has happened, but in conversation and seeing things online, I still feel like an idea has taken route that e-book adoption slowing down. I haven't seen anything to really indicate that's the case.

  4. Rucy Ban says

    April 25, 2013 at 5:34 pm

    It irritates me when traditional publishers or their spokespeople keep badgering ebooks or their sales. Better to recognize it and then design your strategy around it than be in perpetual denial! Thanks for this!!

  5. Esther Cotton says

    April 25, 2013 at 6:36 pm

    Definitely not declining, and I'm glad you cleared that up! Personally, I've heard too many false statements coming from the traditional publishing sphere that just brush off what I hear nowadays.

    You'd think that instead of being so stubbornly in denial, that they would put their energies into furthering their own ebook market & embrace the here & now, as well as the future.

  6. elizabethmarianaranjo.com says

    April 25, 2013 at 6:47 pm

    Oh, wow! I wonder if he was being manipulative with that information or whether he made poor assumptions himself? Either way, thanks for clearing it up.

  7. Bryan Russell says

    April 25, 2013 at 7:16 pm

    Unless you read right to left. But that's a slippery slope.

  8. Doug says

    April 25, 2013 at 8:49 pm

    I suspect that the situation is that the demand for books (e- or otherwise) is relatively constant. In that case, we should be considering the percentage of the book market that e-books are holding, and fit them to a logistic curve.

    A logistic curve is very close to exponential at the low end, but exponential growth cannot be sustained when there's a limiting value. We shouldn't be surprised that we initially saw exponential growth, but no longer do.

  9. Jennifer R. Hubbard says

    April 25, 2013 at 9:05 pm

    You see the same thing when retailers report holiday season sales. They want sales to increase by a greater percentage than they increased the year before. So they could still make a profit and still have an increase in sales, yet if the % increase doesn't exceed the previous year's % increase, that gets reported as a "disappointing" season.

    In any discussion of data and statistics, always look at the raw numbers whenever possible.

  10. Anonymous says

    April 26, 2013 at 12:42 am

    From Al Philipson:

    We have numbers here, but no source. Who reports these numbers? Is there an estimate of unreported sales in there? (Not all retail outlets report sales to anyone except the tax man).

    I'd also love to see numbers by vendor. Some have claimed that Amazon is "off" in sales, while Smashwords is gaining ground. Since the "reporter" was the owner of Smashwords, I'd love to see an independent report here from some reliable source (if any exists).

  11. Melinda Szymanik says

    April 26, 2013 at 12:53 am

    ah statistics, you can make them say anything if you really want to. The key is to understand the agenda of the person/organisation using the numbers 🙂

  12. Nathan Bransford says

    April 26, 2013 at 1:00 am

    Al-

    It's all sourced, the links have all the data. It comes from the AAP. I don't think they're able to drill down by retailer.

  13. Mira says

    April 26, 2013 at 1:32 am

    Real data can bring alot of clarity – terrific post, Nathan.

    @ Al – one thing that's not included is self-publishing (through Amazon) and Amazon imprints. Amazon does not release their data, so you know some numbers are missing.

  14. John Stanton says

    April 26, 2013 at 12:30 pm

    The growth in e-book sales only grew by double digit percentages in 2012 versus triple digit increases in previous years. Anyone that interprets that as the decline of e-books has something else on their mind.
    When you read other essays by Nicholas Carr about digital media, we find similar sentiments. Unfortunately, all the virtues of paper and ink books that he writes about are also true of clay tablets.

  15. Matthew MacNish says

    April 26, 2013 at 3:18 pm

    I don't see why it would matter even if it were slowing. The market (demand) is finite, the supply is not. Eventually the growth will balance out, but that's not a bad thing for anyone.

  16. AJM Mousseau says

    April 29, 2013 at 5:27 pm

    I don't know what I'd do without you! I'd dwell in the crazy world of Numonia :).

    ~Yes, I'm a fan with my kiddos.

  17. David Gaughran says

    April 29, 2013 at 6:55 pm

    Hi Nathan, it's also important to note that the AAP figures don't take any account whatsoever of self-publishers – so they aren't even coming close to measuring the whole market. And, as self-publishers have grabbed a bigger and bigger share of that market in the last few years, that could explain quite a lot of the supposed drop off in growth numbers. By my estimates, self-publishers have grabbed around 25% of the US ebook market.

  18. David Gaughran says

    April 29, 2013 at 7:03 pm

    That 25% claim above might raise a few eyebrows, but the methodology is laid out here

  19. Nathan Bransford says

    April 29, 2013 at 7:28 pm

    Thanks David, and yeah, that's a very good point. I'll update the post tonight with the self-pub info.

  20. Charley says

    August 16, 2013 at 2:30 am

    Good post. As Mark Twain said, "there are lies, damn lies, and statistics." Misrepresenting things is so easy.

Primary Sidebar

About Nathan

Hi, I’m Nathan. I’m the author of How to Write a Novel and the Jacob Wonderbar series, which was published by Penguin. I used to be a literary agent at Curtis Brown Ltd. and I’m dedicated to helping authors achieve their dreams. Let me help you with your book!

My blog has everything you need to know to write, edit, and publish a book. Can’t find what you need or want personalized help? Reach out.

Learn more about me

Need Editing?

I'm available for consultations, edits, query critiques, brainstorming, and more.
Learn more!

My Books

How to Write A Novel
Cover of How to Publish a Book by Nathan Bransford
Jacob Wonderbar and the Cosmic Space Kapo
Jacob Wonderbar for President of the Universe
Jacob Wonderbar and the Interstellar Time Warp

Forums

Need help with your query? Want to talk books? Check out the Nathan Bransford Forums
Footer Logo
Nathan Bransford

Helping authors achieve their dreams

  • Editing Services
  • My Books
  • About Me
  • Subscribe!
  • Blog Directory
  • Contact
  • Privacy Policy
Threads Logo Facebook Logo Instagram Logo
As an Amazon and Bookshop Associate I earn from qualifying purchases. Amazon and Bookshop links are usually affiliate links.
Take your writing to the next level!

Get a free course on writing and selling the book of your dreams.

Loading
Sign up for a free publishing course!

Subscribe to the newsletter for free classes on writing craft, industry tips, and more.

Loading
Get secrets from an insider!

Sign up for the newsletter for tips on advanced writing craft, querying, marketing, and more.

Loading