I’m in Las Vegas this week at the International Consumer Electronics Show, aka CES, and if there’s one hot device out there this year it’s the tablet. Tablet tablet tablet.
People have been joking that it’s raining tablets in the desert. Seemingly every company even tangentially related to creating consumer electronics is debuting their own tablet, and that’s on top of the iPad, which some people think could sell as many as 65 million units worldwide this year. (Disclosure: links are to CNET, I work at CNET, and the views expressed herein are solely my own).
What does this tablet explosion mean for books? Well, more and more and more people out there in the coming year are going to own devices that they can read e-books on. All of that competition will inevitably drive down prices. And even if someone buys a tablet for gaming or to watch movies, they still will own an e-reader and will easily be able to download and read books should one strike their fancy.
It’s funny to look back on my original Kindle post way back in November 2007, when the e-book future was still very murky. Here’s an excerpt:
In my opinion there will never be a widely used iPod of books, a device that people buy specifically for books — e-books will take off when they can be easily downloaded and easily read on a device like a larger iPhone-of-the-future, something people already have, which evens out the economics since you don’t have to plop down a significant chunk of money before you even buy a book. This would give e-books the decisive edge in economics, which might just tip the world of books toward e-books. Until then? Printed page for most of us.
Those larger-iPhones-of-the-future are here, and the economics are a-changing. The future is still unknown, but looking around at all these tablets at CES, I have to say, the future is coming very very quickly. And with e-ink readers starting to hover around $100, it’s not as significant an investment for a device that does one thing very well.
Do you think the tipping point has arrived? Are you planning on getting a tablet this year?
If you’re interested in the latest from CES be sure and follow CNET on Twitter and Facebook! I’ll be back here on Monday with Last Week in Books.
I want one. I really want one. And an iPad, of course, cause I'm a snob like that. I'm too broke for the future!
Me too on want. I have a kindle, an ipod touch, and a houseful of books. Adding an ipad to the mix is something I would do, or possibly one of these new tablets. I LOVE new technology, and CNET (esp. the vids produced for new products)
I think the scales are tipping, more and more people open to the idea of reading ebooks and if something offers it all…well…
Oh, and will add I am drooling with envy that you get to be there! I often watch videos others make of this event too. Between books and technology I am one happy camper.
No thanks. Too much technology. My brain can only handle so much.
My wife, a voracious reader, got a Kindle for Christmas. She likes it so far but still thinks she'll want to buy certain books. Ones that she's on the fence about seem to be more likely candidates to be purchased electronically. So I guess getting the Kindle may actually increase the number of books we buy. Hooray. Also, I can't imagine reading an entire book on an iPad or anything else that's backlit. Perhaps I'm just 31 going on 80.
No. I won't be buying this year. But I do have Wii Fit as well as tennis racquets, golf clubs and a submission to Jazzercise.
😉
I want one, but I want one that can do more than just display books. Ereaders are neat but if I'm going to carry around another device I want to be able to do more with it.
There was an Asus tablet displayed at CES that has a pull-out keyboard! It's an interesting idea. I think sometime in the next 2 years some model will hook me. Not yet, though.
I'll never buy one. Paper to the grave. However, I am e-book publishing. I know. Hypocrite.
We just got an iPad. We were holding out for gen 2 but with the only major addition being the camera it didn't matter to us. Big love for the iPad.
I think the tablet explosion will absolutely provoke another jump in eBook sales. I have a Kindle and I do love it, but I order ebooks from vendors other than Amazon. If I were tech savvy and willing to bend or break a few laws I'm sure I could figure out how to strip DRM and convert files so I could read anything on my Kindle but frankly, I don't want to work that hard. So I read my Nook books on the Nook app on my MacBook.
With the iPad, I could download any proprietary reader and all my books are on one device. That is infinitely appealing. For students, how great would it be to have a tablet with all your textbooks instead of a backpack that weighs 10 pounds?
And speaking of students, they will be using ebooks a great deal. All us old codgers who won't give up print have a completely different reading history than the generation coming. They won't care if the book is digital, it will be what they are used to. They will probably prefer it.
The only down side to a tablet eReader is the backlit screen. For people whose eyes get tired of that, the "old school" eReaders will still have the advantage. But I bet they'll be a lot cheaper.
i want to get one and have the 10 commandments as my wallpaper!
Nice call. Yeah. I think there will be a huge shift soon. I work for a small toy company with a hit ipad app out (littleskywriters.com)and I'm already working on writing a strictly e-book for them using characters from the app. I'm also an English teacher, and there is a lot of talk about how we're going to need to move to tablets in the future. I'm scared to predict how it will shake up publishing, but I do believe it may end up being a good thing for education.
I have a tablet and have read one book on it. I'm still very much addicted to the paper book, but am moving house in two weeks' time and am realising that I'd have a lot less work to do if I only read ebooks!
The tablet is very much a consumption tool in our home (it's an iPad): we read the paper, the kids play games and read books on it. However, I don't like using the keyboard and couldn't imagine doing much more than writing the odd email on it. So far, I don't think tablets are great for output, though I'm sure that's due to change!
I played around with my brother's kindle that he got this past year for Christmas and e-readers are not for me.
I will not be buying one until I'm absolutely forced to for whatever reason. It just didn't feel like I was reading a book. I couldn't get lost in it. It just isn't for me.
I won an iPad and it is a very cool "toy" and I have read books on it and that can be fun. However it doesn't do everything I would like and some of the apps work weird in comparision to what i am used to on my pc, so internet access is not as comfortable for me and the virtual keyboard has it's limitations as well. I like it but still like paper books too. For portability and ease of use with the wireless, it can be a nice tool. FOr writing – not a good option, I don't think it is worth the money and I would never have spent that kind of $$ if it had come out of my own pocket.
I just got a Nook for Christmas this year. That's enough for me. My netbook covers whatever Internet browsing/emailing/writing I want to do. But the tablets are pretty nifty.
I love my iPad and have downloaded several reader apps—Kindle, Nook, iBooks, etc. While I read lots more paper books than e-books, I love the portability of e-books on a tablet—and that I can stop reading to check my e-mail or surf the net on the same device.
With interactive e-books now available for kids, I can see more kids reading—and a surge in sales of both tablets and e-books.
I don't, but my hubby is getting an iPad2 when it comes out (in April I think). The kids play all the time on his iPod and I have no idea how to use it…my 3-yo had to show me how to get to the games my hubby put on it for her. By the end of the year, I might be the only one in our house still reading paper books!
I think we can all learn a valuable lesson from the evolution of video.
First, it was the VHS, and then Beta came out. Then the VHS improved to match the Beta, and then Beta went to Super Beta. Then VHS matched that with, you got it, Super VHS. Then you had Video Disks break into the scene, first played with a conventional stylus, and then they made the jump to Laser. RIght, as in Laser disks. Then it evolved to DVDs, but then came Blue Ray. Now it's all about DVRs. (And I wouldn't doubt if I forgot some steps in there somewhere.)
Can you imagine if someone was quick to sign up for each item as it climbed the evolutionary ladder of video? And worse, if they built up a video library for each type? Talk about starting over. It's a never ending journey.
It's what I see happening now for this eBook reader thing. I'm holding off for a while longer.
I was never all that keen on the e-reader idea… until I got the (free) Kindle for iPhone app. Suddenly I can read books in a pleasant format on a device I already own.
I've barely picked up a paper book since. My books travel with me now, without the sweat, I can mark locations easily, highlight text without it being irreversible or damaging the text (and search through my highlights…)
I'm absolutely sold!
Nope. I have no plans whatsoever to own a tablet. They seem to me to be…awkward. They're an awkward size to hold and use. I much, much, much prefer real, live books. I love feeling the pages between my fingers as I turn them, the smell of the book when you open it, the sound of the spine cracking the first time you open a book…I love it.
And honestly, I'm hardly ever on the computer when I'm home unless I'm checking email or writing. Email takes a few seconds, and writing is hard to do on a tablet.
I'lls tick to my laptop when I need it and real, live books. 🙂 Not that I have anything against those who like the e-readers! Whatever gets you to read is good for me!
Oh, and not to sound too strange, but I have some sort of perverse pleasure in seeing my library expand. I get very excited at the sight of all those books on the shelves. I'm addicted.
I must admit, the iPads are pretty shiny and nice. I can't see myself getting one anytime soon. More of a luxury toy, as I would still want a laptop or PC for writing, and so couldn't really justify the expense of an iPad on practical terms. Though my brother-in-law is trying to convince me that a wireless keyboard and a propped up iPad would do the trick…
I'm a paper girl BUT the world of technology will never die so I plan on buying a kindle soon. I think in the e-world right now we will see a huge surge in new products for the next couple of years. Hopefully then it will settle down and we can have a nice balance between paper and electonic. On another note my childrens' elementary school just bought a pile of iPads for the kids to use in class.
This, frankly, is one reason why I don't have an e-reader or ipad yet. It's like the minute one thing comes out, it becomes obsolete the next day with a replacement toy. And, in fact, these are toys.
I think the tech industry needs to step back and pace themselves a little, otherwise this is going to be the next big bust…like real estate and dot coms back in the late nineties.
And, don't get me wrong. I'm all for e-books and the changes. I just think the public needs a break from all this over-exposure with new toys.
With my BlackBerry and laptop and Sony pocket eReader(only for reading, no internet or music),I'm set!
I do enjoy technology and LOVE my gadgets…they have names–what, y'all don't name your trusty gadgets that are never far from your fingertips?!?
Great post!
~~
Swampfox- Such a good point. I like using technology, but it is definitely difficult to spend a lifetime re-training and re-buying; seems to sap up all of the time, money, and energy saved by the new innovations. Laurel- I guarantee that this is going to shake up education. My high school students are still into their books, but my 3 y/o niece is learning to read on her iPad already, and my savvy educator friends are salivating at the educational opportunities the tablets will provide (while simultaneously praying that budget cuts won’t cut out teachers in favor of electronic education). Personally, I’ll never part with my lovely library- even if I have to haul it in moves . Like April, I love the feel, smell, etc., and I’m a beach bum/bubble bath reader (much of my library has water stains and smells like Hawaiian Tropic), but there will be a generation very very soon who will read all of the classics in school electronically. I’m really intrigued to see how the publishing industry responds; from what I’ve read, they are too.
Lucky! So much shiny, so little time. Do they give away smart phones as swag at those things? 🙂
We are beyond the tipping point, imo. Half of my friends got a reader for Christmas, and most of them aren't people I'd consider to be hardcore book readers. Bottom line: When a hard back book can cost you $15, if you plan on purchasing 6-8 in the next year you've just paid for a darn good reader (Nook and others @ $99 if you shop smart).
If the price of eBooks (overall) would drop–say 25%–tomorrow, print books would be virtually dead by the end of the year. I think it's that close.
A hundred bucks?
That's a toy for rich people. I can't afford it. I don't expect to be able to afford it this year, or any year in the future.
I doubt I will buy a tablet. Of course, that could change sometime in the future due to unknown circumstances. I said last year that I would never get a smartphone–my crapper-keeper-phone seemed to do just what I needed–but an auto accident did in that old phone and I am now using a Droid X and I love it. I even have the Kindle app on it for those occasions I find myself in without a book. I purchased a laptop not long ago instead of an e-reader because I liked that I could write, research, and read e-books on the laptop. Something I couldn't do with an e-reader and would have felt clunky with a touchscreen tablet.
The sky is falling! Good or bad for publishers? Could go either way. But it's all happening so fast! This reminds me of when digital cameras came out people switched to digital much faster than Kodak anticipated. It's really a good time for EVERYONE in the industry to be watching carefully…
I guess my tipping point came last year. I remember reading some tech site's live blogging of Apple's iPad announcement, and like so many others at that time, I remember thinking, Neat, but I don't need that. By the next day, I'd completely changed my mind. So someone who just has an old iPod and never even coveted anyone's smart phone was preordering the biggest iPad I could afford. And I have been very, very happy with my purchase.
iBooks is my favorite reading app, but I still tend to read just samples (I LOVE that feature) and classics as ebooks. I love being able to use the in-app dictionaries, which I need more often in a classic. For now, I still prefer regular books, but it's just me. My husband prefers ebooks.
For what it's worth – my husband and I are both 40 and we don't have any issues with the backlighting when reading! 🙂 In general, I suspect that if you use a computer regularly and don't have troubles with eyestrain, you're probably going to be fine. If you do have troubles, take a pass on the iPad and Nook Color. For me, I only have problems when my computer is the primary light source in the room.
I have a Nook. It was a gift. I still prefer to read manually.
However, I was taken immediately by the lure of the device, and found myself reading on it. And then I found myself browsing the web on it, and not reading. Part of the joy of reading is the immersion, and an electronic device doesn't allow that; there will always be distractions at hand.
Like 3D and CG in the movies, I believe this is the wave of the future, whether we like it or not. People still buy CD's, with the iTunes store there, because not everyone has or wants an iPod. Books will continue to have an audience, but I fear the smaller titles will be harder to find in physical form. I imagine publishers taking fewer risks.
Books may go the way of vinyl, and come back with a nostalgic resurgence, when we miss the feel of them, the art on the covers, and the ease of sharing them. I like reading books and donating them to the library or readers who can't afford them, so I'll always buy books.
I imagine, like music, the Smartphone Set will read by squinting at their little electronic zombifier, but I think physical media will be with us for at least another ten years. Music first, then movies, then books.
My husband gave me an eReader this Christmas and next year I'm asking for some kind of pad.
I think the future is here, Nathan, and the walls of the traditional publishing world are crashing down as we speak. I think you were wise to get out of the agent business, which I think is due of some correspondingly huge changes over the next few years. Authors, even big-timers, will soon be going it alone via e-publishing. I mean, why accept anythign less than the 70% royalty that you get via e-publishing?
The tipping point is indeed here! Or has been sneaking up on the world for a while, gaining momentum and preparing for a massive assault!
I bought an iPad last year, and it has been the best investment I ever made. I'd be hard pushed to buy a paper book again.
Oh and great forecasting Nathan!
Obviously nothing beats the iPad, but I'm curious to know if you think any of the others are decent as well. Like that Samsung one, or the Android based units.
I realize the CNET articles probably have some opinions on that, and I will go take a look, but I would like to know what you think Nathan.
matt-
Unfortunately I haven't had a chance to check them out yet. The CNET editors are the real experts, there are some incredible articles and videos from CES.
Vegas! Oh, I'm so jealous. I love Vegas – it's Disneyland for grown-ups. I hope you're having a chance to do the Vegas thing, Nathan, and not just work.
I don't need a tablet because I have the I-phone app. If I didn't have that app, would I buy a tablet?
Like Swampfox, I usually don't buy the shiny new toys until I'm sure the technology is standing still for awhile. But e-books are so unbelievably convienent, I might have bought a tablet.
I'm a student, and four of my 300+ textbooks are on my I-phone and weigh less than a pound. I can read them anywhere, anytime and they were delivered to me within seconds. And the tablet itself has a definite appeal for a student.
In terms of what's happening, the fact that Apple made a glorious product (per usual) that everyone wants and other companies will compete with is helping the process move along quickly.
But overall, technology is consolidating. Soon, we'll have something we wear all day that carries all forms of entertainment and work products combined so we have instant access 24-7 to everything!
Except a vacation in Vegas. Sigh. Clearly, someday soon, I'll need visit the Bellagiop! Have fun, Nathan. Have a good weekend, everyone!
I don't know, I just can't get excited about the tablets. I mean, how many devices does a person need? I have the iphone and the MacBook already. I looked at the ipad at the store, had the cash to buy it, but thought, meh, what do I want it for? My other stuff does everything I need.
And just a quick question: Are you no longer doing the Page Critique Fridays?
anon-
Page critiques are on temporary hiatus as I've had such a crazy month, but hope to resume them soon!
I love e-reading. I read Franzen's Freedom in hardcover, and it felt so big and awkward to hold after using my kindle and phone to read on.
Oh, Nathan, my family went to the beach in Mexico over the holidays, and my husband put his Kindle in the ziplock bag I'd brought our sunblock in. I thought, hm, I seem to remember another smart man having this same idea.
Hi Nathan: super quick 2 questions, unrelated to this post's content (sorry about that, didn't know where else to ask).
These are about agenting, and sorry if perhaps you've answered them elsewhere:
1. I know it's really hard to get an agent, but what would you say is the percentage of agented fiction writers that get book deals? Like, 25%? 10%?
2. Once you get an agent, on average, how much time does it take to get a deal? I know it's case by case, but what's a pretty standard window?
Thanks a mil if you get the time to answer this….hope you enjoy the rest of CES…
Mark
Due to economics for some people, saturation may take longer – after all, isn't it just a replacement for several of the single devices we already have?
When my laptop dies, I might consider one. I'd probably wait for the inevitable 'bugs' to be worked out.
Do they take trade-ins for tablets? That might stimulate more sales. I do like the idea of driving down prices for the masses (that includes me).
I'll wait and watch for a while to see what the track record will be. I'm sure some will perform better than others.
I'm not there yet but I'm close. But my Droid has a kindle app so I've been experimenting.
I'm still on the fence with a tablet, but Notion Ink's Adam is really, really tempting, especially with the Pixel Qi display. Of course, I've been itching to get one of those displays in my netbook.
It will also be interesting to see what comes of Android's Honeycomb, which is being designed around tablet UIs.
I can understand why so many people want Kindles and iPads and e-readers, especially if they travel often for business. I recognize that the industry will probably tip further and further towards e-readers — I used to teach high school, and I think the up-and-coming digital native generation will significantly increase the demand for tablets. That said, even though moving my physical library from apartment to apartment can be a pain in the butt, I'm a tactile person, and there are few things I love more than reading an actual "flesh and blood" book.
@Bryan/Ink:
I got the new Mac Air, the 11". I couldn't justify the iPad either; I really needed something ultra-portable that I could write on.
This thing is perfect. Absolutely awesome. It's light enough that I can actually lie in bed and surf if I'm so inclined–it's not idea for that but it gives you some idea of how portable it is. It's a beautiful machine too. Flash memory like the iPad.
There's a bug in the firmware they are fixing where the screen goes unresponsive when you put it to sleep at odd times, but that's mostly fixed and I wouldn't hesitate to recommend it.
And yeah, if and when I get a tablet, I'll probably stick with Mac. Their stuff is just so…pretty. It's the computer equivalent of a fancy fountain pen.
I don't think I'll be getting one. There is nothing, in my opinion, better than a real live book. But, some people love e-books and I have nothing against them. (And is it bad that I had never actually heard of a tablet before today's blog post?)
Annnd…here's something that might keep me away from an eReader!
I have an iPad and I love it, too much in fact. Trouble is our family shares it. I'm sick of sharing LOL. I want my own. A tablet therefore, especially if it's a lot cheaper than the iPad, just may be in my future.
I'll wait to see how the competition shakes out with the slew of tablets coming out.
It sure is an exciting time. Can't wait to see how this market evolves.
I don't think I need a tablet or maybe I'm not sure what they are or can do. I agree with Dara above–a netbook is fine for me. I can write, check email, etc, and I read most of my books (usually almost brand new and FREE) from the library, or buy them at bookstores, or occasionally buy them for my ereader.
Only bad thing about the netbook is that it's sloooowww. But I bought the cheapest one.