As we look forward to our (mostly) paperless future, I have been noticing a few predictions out there that I do not agree with and wish to quash like bug. I’ve previously tackled the Top 10 Myths about E-books themselves, but I thought I’d do a broader one about the reading and publishing world as a whole. Behold!
Man, I love that word. Behold! I am wielding an exclamation point! Behold! Behold!
Ahem. Sorry.
Behold!
1. Due to an avalanche of self-published and poorly edited e-books, readers will be submerged in a big pile of suck.
The avalanche is already here. Go to Amazon and you’ll find a million books for sale with more uploaded every day, and yet we’re all still able to find the books we want to read. You won’t have to go wading through a giant slush pile in order to find something to read. Good books will find you, just like they already do.
2. Publishers are going to disappear.
There’s more to making a book than uploading it to Amazon. Even in the e-book era publishers offer a range of services that are not easy to duplicate. While they will no longer be the iron-clad necessity that they used to be in the print era, publishers will still be around.
3. Paper books will disappear.
Some people just love the paper, and not to worry. Even in a world where we read primarily e-books, print will still be an option. Where there is a customer, there is a seller.
4. E-books are going to destroy libraries.
As of last October there were over 5,000 libraries who offer e-books. While I haven’t yet heard of an e-reader lending program, I have heard of libraries that lend iPods loaded with digital audiobooks, so e-reader programs can’t be far behind. (UPDATE: actually they’re already here. See comments section for more)
5. All authors will have an equal shot.
The future will definitely be more equal as authors no longer have to scale the print publishing gates in order to find readers and can upload their manuscript to e-bookstores. Everyone will have a chance, but some chances will be more equal than others. The advantage will still go to authors with platforms and those launched by major publishers. Sorry, all you egalitarians out there.
6. The book world will be divided between a few megabestsellers and everyone else selling only two copies. It will be impossible for authors without platforms to get anyone to pay attention to them.
While, as I mentioned in point number 5, the early advantage will go to those with existing platforms, hits will come out of nowhere, including from people without huge platforms and a built-in audience. Just like the Double Rainbow guy. All it takes for a book to go viral is one person recommending a book to two friends and the process repeating several million times.
7. We’re all going to drop our e-readers into our bathtubs amid a massive, world-wide power outage and multi-government e-book deletion conspiracy that causes us to permanently lose every book the world has ever published.
Possible. But unlikely.
8. The reading world will be divided between those who can afford an e-reader and those who can’t.
While I think this is a legitimate concern, over the long term: 1) I think the price of e-readers and multifunctional tablets are going to decline to the point of affordability for just about everyone, 2) print will still exist, 3) libraries will still exist, 4) e-books themselves will be cheaper than their print counterparts.
9. Bookstores will disappear.
Let’s be honest, a lot of them probably will. But the good and enterprising ones who follow the Powell’s model and embrace, rather than fear, the online world will have a reason to survive. Bookstores won’t survive because we’re nostalgic about them, they’ll survive if they continue to give us reasons to buy from them.
10. E-books will evolve into all-knowing robots that will implant carnivorous baby e-books inside our brains and devour our heads from within.
Actually that one’s true.
Great, balanced perspective. Appreciate the insight!
In response to number f: https://librarianchat.com/forum/index.php?topic=1162.0
Showed up on my twitter two days ago…
That would be number four, and not number f.
I knew it! Thanks for the link, fakesteph.
We're all going to drop our e-readers into our bathtubs amid a massive, world-wide power outage and multi-government e-book deletion conspiracy that causes us to permanently lose every book the world has ever published.
I'M WRITING THAT BOOK AND YOU BETTER NOT STEAL IT
😉
The town library in Hanover, NH has a number of Kindles available to borrow.
I don't understand the e-book fear and e-book frustration. I hate to pull out that old argument about how there are bigger things to worry about, but there are bigger things to worry about.
LIKE THIS OIL THING IN THE GULF.
And I just watched Born into Brothels and now feel the need to adopt little Indian children.
But back to the E-book, people be complaining. Americans especially seem to have a knack for it (go to any local paper website and read the comments). We are like a bunch of cranky old men shouting at the local kids to get off our lawn.
But me, I'm going to welcome the future with open arms. Reading books on a sleek electronic device is kind of cool. And in my other life–the one where I'm a jet setter and head off to Paris for international intrigue (or maybe just a fancy speaking engagement)–I'll be reading Flaubert (OK, Connelly) on the plane and then twittering about it from the same device. The future!
Word count. I can't wait for a manuscript over 110k not to be too large. You know how many words you have to have in your ms for an ebook file to be too big?
That's right. Come to papa, ebooks.
It's tweeting, not twittering, isn't it? I'm not so cool in my other, jet-setting, life. Or in this one.
So the monster under my bed must be an e-book monster… That would explain the eerie glow!
9. Bookstores will disappear.
Let's be honest, a lot of them probably will.
This is already happening, at least for Brick & Mortar stores. Very seldom do I go to the bookstore these days, yet I'm constantly purchasing books (PRINT books). It has nothing to do with the e-book trend, but rather the ease of not having to leave the house, cause I'm just that lazy some times. I have no problem waiting a day, week, or two weeks for that matter for a book to be delivered to my doorstep. And with some places offering free delivery, it doesn't cost one penny more to order online. And if I find a coupon in my mailbox or special deal, I can get my books even cheaper than going to the brick and mortar store.
abc… I'm so glad I'm not the only one excited that we live in the future.
Where can I get one of the ebooks described in number 10? I can think of a few people I could give those to as gifts. ;-D
Behold! I propose #11: The publishing industry and e-book manufacturers will stop squabbling and remember who's really important: The Reader.
I only wish that one were true.
#11
It won't matter anyway because many of today's children can't read anyway.
(oh, I so hope that one doesn't come true!)
Behold!
Larry Jacobson
Author of: The Boy Behind the Gate
https://theboybehindthegate.com
Behold! As a writer I like #5, naturally. It broadens chances of getting published without negating on the quality.
I think this future involves the writer more with their audience – blogs, Twitter, etc. Some people will no doubt baulk at a more interactive relationship, but I love the idea.
I was a worried for a moment you would leave out that last pervasive myth. I'm sure I speak for many aspiring writers when I say that's the one keeping me up at night. Glad you addressed it. The future will be easier to accept if we're clear about the brain-eating cyborg e-book babies.
(Seriously, thank you for the list!)
Re: No. 8 … Amazon is already letting you download a Kindle reader to your computer. So yeah, the world probably will be divided by the haves and have nots … only it will be less "e-reader" and more "computer of some sort or another"
Kinda like it is, ya know, right now.
The conspiracy theorist in my questions your response to #7 🙂 Thanks for your thoughts on the issue.
PS–My aunt is a librarian in WI, and they are running a pilot program for lending e-readers. I haven't heard if they kept with it, though.
Powells and Green Apple do a great job of stocking mostly used books. The used model is superior, and quality buyers make it a treat to spend hours in their stores. Limiting the new selection is smart.
Their success will continue no matter what the Internet offers people who like books.
I can borrow library books on my Sony e-reader, but I much prefer getting out of my house, visitng the library, and bringing home a book–a real book, that is. Plus, I enjoy browsing in the new books section at my library and being open to bringing home whatever I might find there. I know resistance is futile against the E-BORG, but I have to keep fighting…
A carnivorous baby e-book just chewed its way out through my ear. What does this mean?
I've gotta admit, it made my head spin to watch my agent negotiate all the little clauses on electronic rights in my recent contract. The whole e-book thing is still a bit of a mystery to me, but I recognize that it's certainly the wave of the future. I'm just glad there's someone smarter than me tending to all those details 🙂
Tawna
E-books are the devil, the end of civilization, and propagated by dirty commies! I will worship at the altar of my overflowing bookshelves and pray to the Book Gods that the blight will forever perish from this land and leave us to caress our dear, musty dead trees as is Right and Holy.
QUESTION: Do you think that e-books will help make serial stories popular again?
Seeing a rise in small formatt tools and short format social media. Heck, even my liste serves are making more "call for submissions" for short stories.
best,
The Editor Devil
Plus, via Shelf Awareness…
Big Indie Bookstore Sales Inch Up This Year.
I wonder if the instant accessibility of eBooks and their relatively cheaper cost will expand the market for all kinds of books?
Not worth it. The future will happen, regardless of my little posts.
What's important – Great post, Nathan. You address very clearly all the concerns that were voiced on Tuesday. That post and comments left me vaguely reeling and uncomfortable. I appreciate that you pulled out all the various anxieties and addressed them here.
I like e-books. I like the opportunity it gives everyone – no one can be overlooked or left out. Not all shots will be equal, but shots will be available equally. That's a very good thing in this world. 🙂
I think what everyone has to embrace is that we have to keep up with new technologies and social change. There’s more room for good writing than ever before. No matter what genre we write we have to be savvy marketers and what sells us is an online presence. Maggie Stiefvater’s Linger has debuted at number one on the NY Times list, but two years ago if you paid attention to what she was doing you’d have seen this coming. She’s a slick writer because she works hard at craft: find the post that has her initial rejection stats in it and you’ll see she has perseverance. What she does, and has learned to do well is socialise her passion, personality, and premise. There you go social media gurus, the 3 P’s. Crikey, ring Tony Robbins!
The world’s filled with mentors and examples of potential and what’s possible. We’ve been telling stories for as long as we’ve been sitting around a fire. With ebooks we don’t have to wait our turn to speak, but if our stories are ordinary no one is going to listen. The stats on getting published are dismal, but that’s the story tellers fault. If an agent had 100 good manuscripts one after the other I’m sure they’d take the work or give it to colleagues, or self combust. If there were that many good projects there’d be more agents and publishers. I’m not published, but why waste time talking about it. There’s enough free information all I have to do is not give up, and hold onto my job at McDonalds. Good content will always outshine bad content.
I wandered off topic. Ooops!
What does that mean – a big pile of suck? I've read that sentence ten times now and I still don't understand it.
A big pile of suck?
Huh?
Also, does any of this really matter? Words will always be words, won't they? Why does it matter HOW we read them?
Why does it matter HOW we read them?
Because the "how" has a huge impact on the existing business infrastructure that brings the words to readers–the model that pays writers, I mean.
On the question of bookstores, if e-books become 50% of book sales, then most bookstores will close. Even those with substantial online businesses will have to really re-evaluate preserving their retail space.
Some will make it; I am sure Powell's will survive. I'm sure the Strand in NYC will make it. Most major metropolitan areas will be able to support a couple of stores. Universities will probably still have bookstores.
But the national and regional chains are going to retrench and many independents are going to go out of business. There won't be huge BN stores in suburban shopping centers anymore. The percentage of Americans who don't live within fifty miles of a bookstore will increase substantially.
And, as bookstores shrink, the publisher's role of selling to bookstore accounts will become less important. Editorial and publicity assistance will continue to be valuable, and so will getting paid in advance.
But the economics are going to change; when a bestselling author can pay for editorial and publicity on his own and get an 80% royalty on self-published e-book sales, he'll be able to demand and get more to stick with the publisher. When sales and distribution become less important, the negotiating power of top authors increases substantially. I don't see how the current business model for publishing is sustainable in an environment where 80% of current bookstores close.
I think it might transform in a way that shifts the business risk of publishing a book from the publisher to the author. Maybe publishing will become a kind of professional service, in which authors pay for editorial, marketing, and publicity. Maybe publishing will simply shrink, and start acquiring fewer books to rebalance the risk around a smaller up-side.
A little literal anon! I just nouned the word "suck." It's an Internet thing, like how people say someone is "made of awesome."
I just tried saying "a little literal" five times fast, wasn't able to.
10. E-books will evolve into all-knowing robots that will implant carnivorous baby e-books inside our brains and devour our heads from within.
Actually that one's true.
I KNEW IT!
I knew it I knew it I KNEW it!
~bru
My brother works for B&N, (mamagement) and he has assured me the company has a plan. The number of us who may USE an e-reader is different from the number of us who WANT the physical book. Surveys from the B&N folks have shown that there will continue to be a great need for bookstores for at least several more decades….or so my brother says. I just hope he is correct, for my sake, as well as his.
I love you Nathan, you're so cool. (sheesh, am I allowed to say that?)
Thanks for your take on things.
The thing is that technology keeps advancing faster than I can keep up with it. First there were 8 tracks, then cassette tapes, then Video Tape with VTRs or VCRs…you had VHS, then Beta, then Suber Beta, then Super VHS, then upgraded VHS that seemed to settle the market.
But it didn't. Suddenly, Laser Discs were the future, but just as they hit the market, CDS and DVDs made them obsolete, and before you were able to get used to that, now you just download to iPods (or is it upload??) and ditto with the whole DVR thing that puts you in the dinosaurs days if you don't have that. Now the whole mess is bleeding into the book market. Where will it end? WHEN will it end?
I liked the #10 myth, it sounds like a 1950s sci-fi story.
How do myths get started? In the same way as gossip. Someone formulates an opinion, and convinces enough people that it's true.
We need these posts to translate the dire predictions and gloomy articles that focus on the problems of publishing & authors. It all seems to hinge on who you want to listen to.
Thanks for clarifying some of these misconceptions. Yours seems to be a clear voice in the crowd.
I had to smile at #1. I published a book earlier this year (with a commercial poblisher) in ebook editions only. No print edition exists or is planned. What I found was that all the major reviewers (newspapers, magazines, and even websites and blogs) will not even consider reviewing an ebook. They will only review paper books. That means a commercially-published ebook is effectively invisible unless there is also a print edition that can be reviewed.
Oh, and I forgot to insert Blue Ray in there after DVDs. See…I told you this is advancing faster than I can keep up with it.
This blog is just one big pile of awesome.
This was a good post. I think it helps people understand more about where things are going in a time when so many people are worried that print books are just going to disappear completely.
AHAHAHAHAHAHAH @ "One big pile of suck." Nathan, a naming contest for this pile of suck, please?
🙂
As a librarian and aspiring writer, I hold out hope that print books will stick around.
There are many legal issues to work out regarding whether or not libraries should even be allowed to loan out copies of downloaded books on e-readers. And remember, checking out a print book from your library is FREE. Last I checked, purchasing a book for your Kindle cost around $10.
And just as an aside, most libraries are busier now than they were five years ago. People love the moldy, dusty (sometimes smoky) smell of a real book in their hot little hands.
I can't take it. Someone get me a rotary phone and the kind of TV where you have to get up and twist the dial to change the channel.
NOTE TO THE YOUNGER READERS: Yes, they really used to make TVs like that.
This is one of the more sensible posts I've seen on the subject.
The only thing I am mourning is the demise of used book stores. That's the only part of ebooks I resent.
Thanks, Nathan. Put some of my worries to rest!
Kelsey
https://kelseysutton.blogspot.com/
Yep, plenty of libraries have an e-book lending program (mine uses Digital Media Mall) and I love it! Quick access to books, and my scatterbrain avoids late charges because when the 3 week lending period is up, the file explodes! (er, well, not exactly) I can't wait for the popularity of e-books to grow, because my biggest complaint is the rather slim pickins on my library's digital shelves.
If distribution was one of the primary keys to success with paper books, what's the equal marketing force for e-books? Sure you can upload manuscripts all day long, but what is going to help angle for a slot in the top 100 where buyers might actually realize your work exists? I suppose the answer is word of mouth, creating a buzz and platform, platform, platform.
I guess you could argue that distribution couldn't be better because suddenly you're in everybody's living room. But really your work is buried under mountains of other books. I think authors are going to have to spend as much time studying a variety of marketing techniques as they do writing their novels. *Let the games begin.*
Re: evolution of bookstores
My local B&N is revamping a huge center section to house teacher supplies and workbooks, trying to eat the teacher-store's lunch by cutting into their market.
It just might work, plus keep the bookstores afloat a little longer.