As we look forward to our (mostly) paperless future, I have been noticing a few predictions out there that I do not agree with and wish to quash like bug. I’ve previously tackled the Top 10 Myths about E-books themselves, but I thought I’d do a broader one about the reading and publishing world as a whole. Behold!
Man, I love that word. Behold! I am wielding an exclamation point! Behold! Behold!
Ahem. Sorry.
Behold!
1. Due to an avalanche of self-published and poorly edited e-books, readers will be submerged in a big pile of suck.
The avalanche is already here. Go to Amazon and you’ll find a million books for sale with more uploaded every day, and yet we’re all still able to find the books we want to read. You won’t have to go wading through a giant slush pile in order to find something to read. Good books will find you, just like they already do.
2. Publishers are going to disappear.
There’s more to making a book than uploading it to Amazon. Even in the e-book era publishers offer a range of services that are not easy to duplicate. While they will no longer be the iron-clad necessity that they used to be in the print era, publishers will still be around.
3. Paper books will disappear.
Some people just love the paper, and not to worry. Even in a world where we read primarily e-books, print will still be an option. Where there is a customer, there is a seller.
4. E-books are going to destroy libraries.
As of last October there were over 5,000 libraries who offer e-books. While I haven’t yet heard of an e-reader lending program, I have heard of libraries that lend iPods loaded with digital audiobooks, so e-reader programs can’t be far behind. (UPDATE: actually they’re already here. See comments section for more)
5. All authors will have an equal shot.
The future will definitely be more equal as authors no longer have to scale the print publishing gates in order to find readers and can upload their manuscript to e-bookstores. Everyone will have a chance, but some chances will be more equal than others. The advantage will still go to authors with platforms and those launched by major publishers. Sorry, all you egalitarians out there.
6. The book world will be divided between a few megabestsellers and everyone else selling only two copies. It will be impossible for authors without platforms to get anyone to pay attention to them.
While, as I mentioned in point number 5, the early advantage will go to those with existing platforms, hits will come out of nowhere, including from people without huge platforms and a built-in audience. Just like the Double Rainbow guy. All it takes for a book to go viral is one person recommending a book to two friends and the process repeating several million times.
7. We’re all going to drop our e-readers into our bathtubs amid a massive, world-wide power outage and multi-government e-book deletion conspiracy that causes us to permanently lose every book the world has ever published.
Possible. But unlikely.
8. The reading world will be divided between those who can afford an e-reader and those who can’t.
While I think this is a legitimate concern, over the long term: 1) I think the price of e-readers and multifunctional tablets are going to decline to the point of affordability for just about everyone, 2) print will still exist, 3) libraries will still exist, 4) e-books themselves will be cheaper than their print counterparts.
9. Bookstores will disappear.
Let’s be honest, a lot of them probably will. But the good and enterprising ones who follow the Powell’s model and embrace, rather than fear, the online world will have a reason to survive. Bookstores won’t survive because we’re nostalgic about them, they’ll survive if they continue to give us reasons to buy from them.
10. E-books will evolve into all-knowing robots that will implant carnivorous baby e-books inside our brains and devour our heads from within.
Actually that one’s true.
Thanks for this. There is certainly no downturn in the need for stories, so I am not too wary of the future. Not yet anyway.
I, agree that #7 is very VERY unlikely, but I also think I might get a short story out of it. So thanks for that, too.
I respectively suggest you keep this essay and reread it in about ten years. I don't know what will happen to publishers, agents, or writers, but I'm certain you'll be shocked at how timid you were.
In my files, I have several articles, written by industry insiders during the early days of microelectronics and personal computers, that demonstrate how conservative even experts are in anticipating the rate of change and that prove we cannot imagine the choices that the future will bring.
Oh, and by the way, if one person told two others, it would have to be repeated only a few dozen times … not millions.
#7 would make a great comedy.
😀
(I can say that as someone exceptionally likely to drop something in water as soon as I discover water will kill it… did you know that bleach water will destroy a cell phone? Now I do.)
Ha ha! I love #10.
Behold! Nice. And in response to the massive conspiracy, I definitely think that is the updated version of Fahrenheit 451.
This post is covered in awesomesauce!
On another blog I frequent (yes, I cheat on you), a solid, successful midlister dropped a new book last week. In anticipation of the new book, his pub put his last book (the first in the series) on Kindle for free for a week.
What writer, agent, and editor didn't anticipate was when the week was up,the free book shot to the top of the paid ebook list and has stayed in the top ten for a month.
His new book debuted in the top 20 of the paid list and shows no sign of dropping off this list.
On Facebook and the blog, lurkers are popping up and saying they bought the Kindle editions and loving it.
You can buy the Kindle editions for $3.99 each and the MMPs are $7.99, so it is a two-fer deal.
I love ebooks and have informed my husband that his Christmas gift to me is an e-reader. I love short stories and anthologies. As magazines declined, so did the paying markets for short stories. I see ebooks reversing that trend.
I plan on Kindle-izing a series of my short stories that have been pubbed elsewhere. Mostly flash fiction. Like the commenter who likes that e-readers take off the upper limits, I am equally pleased that they also take off the lower limits.
So, I'll get a ziplock baggie in anticipation of the bathwater attack and well, #10 is going to happen no matter what, I might as well enjoy it!
Terri
http://www.whyifearclowns.com
Here's a myth–or not–I'd like to see you address: electronic publishing will allow more people to get published, true, but the flipside of that virtually nobody will be able to make a living at it anymore. With more stories competing for readers, and supply driving price down (and Amazon driving price down) the only way to make more than, say, a thousand bucks on a novel will be if someone happens to make a movie of it.
As for libraries lending out downloaded eBooks, I believe they're required to subscribe to a digital aggregate service to do so, which provides a modest royalty to the publisher.
We publish digitally, but I still love paper books.
Great post. I totally disagree with the guy above me. Most authors don't make much of a living off of writing as it is, and with is books being available at the click of a button I suspect reading will become more popular. I think it will even out, and since the author makes more money on the average e-book (because there is no printing cost to factor in), making a living out of writing will be the same as it has always been, or better. In fact, the chances of the book going viral are much higher when you it's so darned easy to get it and pass the info along.
"The advantage will still go to authors with platforms and those launched by major publishers."
Owing to the viral nature of the internet I'm seeing more one or two-hit wonders (and hits from newbie authors) on Kindle. Platform (backlist), although helpful, is less important. Individual gems are being discovered, and they are making their way onto Kindle bestseller lists.
Because of the viral nature of the medium (word of mouth carries a long way in the twitterdom), the major publisher marketing advantage (unless your publisher is Amazon – they do select the best and market them through Amazon Encore) is neutralized.
Agree with all that you've said about the future of e-books (except for the crazy stuff about little mini e-books eating our brains, that will never happen – it's Multivac that we have to worry about…).
Thought you might like to have a perspective on the 3-Format Future of Books. There is something for everyone in this prediction, so we can all be happy and get what we individually want. Which is pretty cool.
https://www.highspotinc.com/blog/2010/06/the-3-format-future-of-books/
At a book signing, how does the author sign an e-book?
Excellent, excellent, excellent post, Mr. Agent Man.
I'm still in complete agreement with Mira. That hypnosis thing…um, it does wear off eventually, right, Mira?
Other Lisa: that's all true, I'm afraid, as is the fact that it's been known to prevent pregnancy only 99% of the time.
Ebooks are here. They are the future. They may not (I personally hope they won't) replace paper books, but they aren't going away, either.
And Amazon is offering 70% royalties to ebook authors. And building author platforms. And publishing (AmazonEncore). And invented the most popular ebook software (Kindle). And they'll be available on IPads and iPhones.
Amazon in a few swift moves became not only a major distributor of books, but THE major publisher in all formats…
I believe it is the traditional major publishers, who had pretty much thought they had the game fixed, who are most vocal about what's wrong with ebooks or a "lowering of standards" or whatever the complaint really is.
Or, I suppose, Behold! Baby ebooks may in fact be eating our brains. But a power outage will only kill the ebooks that aren't solar powered…
To Anon with the brother at B&N: and yet, B&N's plan includes setting up its own ebook publishing digital platform: PubIt! (the exclamation isn't mine).
I don't know about #1, now or in the future. I'm sure many good books I would want to read are not finding me
Just stumbled upon this site and have been reading past posts for hours. Thanks for the insight and the delightfully accessible way you present everything.
Powell's Books is an amazing place and it's no surprise they're at the forefront of brick & mortar adaptation. I've never set foot in a building with a more remarkable assemblage of the printed word (and I've been in the Library of Congress).
When Powell's says they have 68,000 square feet packed with books, they mean PACKED…all organized into 3500 distinct sections over 3 floors across an entire city block. 3500 genres of literature…I've been in there several times and I still can't fathom it, but they're definitely there.
If you enjoy reading, make sure you put a (week-long) visit to Powell's on your bucket list. It truly is a remarkable place.
Appending my post above, here's a .pdf map of the layout, but like the store itself, it's rather massive. If you don't have broadband (or you're on a smartphone or something), you might not want to fiddle with looking at it:
https://www.powells.com/
pdf/burnside_folding_map_2009.pdf
These cracked me up! Love #10. 🙂
Beheld. #10. Thank God the truth is out. Now I can relax and write while I await the imminent end of literature.
#11… ebooks plug into our brains and we no longer read the words but experience the vision in the way the writer can at the moment of creation. Ooh, scary, but wouldn't that be kinda cool?
BEHOLD! The true Constant of the Universe…
The best time to fish will still be dawn and dusk!
Haste yee back 😉
@Simon Hay Healer
What was with the love song to Maggie Stiefvater? I thought we were talking about e-books here.
And just for the record, not everything thinks her work is great, sorry.
Great post. And thank goodness for #4. I go to the library more often than the bookstore. And in a silly, personal way, #4 makes me laugh a little since my first "real" job was actually at OverDrive, just before they became the largest supplier of eBooks to libraries.
Richard Nash said in an interview that he thinks the mega chain bookstores may well disappear and a few indies will take their place. Those stores will become integrals part of the community. I love the sound of that.
I'm with you; I don't think the sky is falling. I posted about that today.
https://www.keetha.com/2010/07/weighing-in.html
The question I continue to have about ereaders is, "What do we do those first %@* 30 minutes on a plane when the device has to be turned off?" Sit there quietly? I think not.
Still, I have an iPad.
The ebook technology creates a great opportunity for both writers and readers. Publishing no longer has to restrict itself by the physical limitations of physical books, physical bookstore and the need for physical storage and transportation. These limitations are the basis for the publishing industries gateway over what can be published.
In my opinion the publishing industry doesn’t have a great track record as a gatekeeper. I believe about 60% of published books do not make back their advance. That also means that many of the remaining 30% may not make back much more than their advance. So from an economic perspective they aren’t great pickers. However I don’t know if that is a personal critique or it is just not possible to be a good picker. Perhaps no matter whom you are, you can’t consistently pick winners in an “art” market.
From a “good book” perspective I think the publishing industry isn’t so great in the gate keeping arena either. People/readers are always saying how did that crummy book get published? And it doesn’t matter what book. Some people say it about book “x” and others about book “y”. What it comes down to is taste and everyone has their own taste and why should your taste be restricted by someone else’s taste?
Apparently a lot of people like to read what I consider to be crummy books. Well god bless em, who am I to tell them no?
With the advent of ebooks readers could now have access to books they would not be able to before and I think that is a good thing. And writers to a chance at an audience they might previously be denied. And it’s not just because a writer can easily self-publish and ebook, it’s because that ebook can sell for a lot less and so a lot more readers may be willing to give it a try.
I think the mainstream publishing industry is out to lunch. IMHO if they were smart they would open ebook divisions and publish in a more expeditious manner more books directly as ebooks, charge less for them, give no advances and a higher royalty. Don’t try to pick winners or books you like but publish anything with up to a certain moderate standard of credibility and let the readers decide. There could be different tracks for books that need more and less editing. And the publishing industry should bring back editing – editors who’s job it is to work on books with authors. Maybe they should start hiring people who only do that.
Ebooks also make it possible for authors to make more money: 60% of a $2 book will get you more than 12% of a hardcover when you only sell 2k of your hardcover at $17.99 and you sell 30k of your ebook at $2.
Mainstream publishing now does: hard-cover to soft-cover to ebooks. The have it backwards. It should be, and I think in the future will be, ebooks to soft-cover maybe and lastly hard-cover maybe. Publishing houses will not cease to exist but they will change and some of the now existing ones will close. Probably others will open. This will not happen over night.
I have worked in tech r&d (research and development). And this is how you get great results in r&d: you hire a lot of people, throw a lot of money at it and let people work on their ideas. You get a lot of crap, but you also get the gems. This is how America became great in technology, mostly by the government supporting r&d in Universities and big corporations. I believe it is the same with “art” you let people work on their ideas and let them bring them to market and let the market decide. Ebooks technology can allow this to happen.
The ebook technology creates a great opportunity for both writers and readers. Publishing no longer has to restrict itself by the physical limitations of physical books, physical bookstore and the need for physical storage and transportation. These limitations are the basis for the publishing industries gateway over what can be published.
In my opinion the publishing industry doesn’t have a great track record as a gatekeeper. I believe about 60% of published books do not make back their advance. That also means that many of the remaining 30% may not make back much more than their advance. So from an economic perspective they aren’t great pickers. However I don’t know if that is a personal critique or it is just not possible to be a good picker. Perhaps no matter whom you are, you can’t consistently pick winners in an “art” market.
From a “good book” perspective I think the publishing industry isn’t so great in the gate keeping arena either. People/readers are always saying how did that crummy book get published? And it doesn’t matter what book. Some people say it about book “x” and others about book “y”. What it comes down to is taste and everyone has their own taste and why should your taste be restricted by someone else’s taste?
Apparently a lot of people like to read what I consider to be crummy books. Well god bless em, who am I to tell them no?
With the advent of ebooks readers could now have access to books they would not be able to before and I think that is a good thing. And writers to a chance at an audience they might previously be denied. And it’s not just because a writer can easily self-publish and ebook, it’s because that ebook can sell for a lot less and so a lot more readers may be willing to give it a try.
I think the mainstream publishing industry is out to lunch. IMHO if they were smart they would open ebook divisions and publish in a more expeditious manner more books directly as ebooks, charge less for them, give no advances and a higher royalty. Don’t try to pick winners or books you like but publish anything with up to a certain moderate standard of credibility and let the readers decide. There could be different tracks for books that need more and less editing. And the publishing industry should bring back editing – editors who’s job it is to work on books with authors. Maybe they should start hiring people who only do that.
Ebooks also make it possible for authors to make more money: 60% of a $2 book will get you more than 12% of a hardcover when you only sell 2k of your hardcover at $17.99 and you sell 30k of your ebook at $2.
Mainstream publishing now does: hard-cover to soft-cover to ebooks. The have it backwards. It should be, and I think in the future will be, ebooks to soft-cover maybe and lastly hard-cover maybe. Publishing houses will not cease to exist but they will change and some of the now existing ones will close. Probably others will open. This will not happen over night.
I have worked in tech r&d (research and development). And this is how you get great results in r&d: you hire a lot of people, throw a lot of money at it and let people work on their ideas. You get a lot of crap, but you also get the gems. This is how America became great in technology, mostly by the government supporting r&d in Universities and big corporations. I believe it is the same with “art” you let people work on their ideas and let them bring them to market and let the market decide. Ebooks technology can allow this to happen.
oops sorry about the double post – computer glitch
Terin Tashi – Will the hypnosis wear off? I hope not. I paid 3.99 for that phamplet entitled: "How to hypnotize people by telling them they're sleepy." I want my money's worth!
I have noticed that we tend to agree on many things, though, so I'm not sure it matters. 🙂
By the way, you ought to go play with the Barnes & Noble Nook – most of the books available are on the Lend Me program where you can lend your digital copies to friends and family. As long as they get the free eReader software (which works with just about anything), they can read the book.
The only way I'll buy an e-reader of any kind is if they make them waterproof – not because I'm worried about the same bath water scenario you've come up with, but because I hate reading in the bath and having to hold my paperback at a strange angle to avoid getting the bottom of the pages wet. And heck, if they do that, maybe I'll just read in pools, in the ocean, in the rain… I'd consider these possibilities a true advantage.
Psst . . . Melanie . . . Zip-Lock Bags . . . 1 Gallon Size.
😉
He feared the words. Yes, it had been the words that upset him for a long time now. Listening to the howling of the new dogs outside the fence, he pressed against the brick and mortar. There was no consolation this time. It used to be his safe haven, his sanctuary, but now the doors were tightly shut and it only seemed to push him away, ever closer to the fence and the world outside it. Frantically he leafed through his treasures, again. They gave off the slightest hint of printer's ink, but no answers, again.
Was he indeed doomed? Would the brick and mortar crush him into submission to the new dogs and their words?
this is reason #94574386525424523765453 why you are awesome.
Behold!
Good rebuffs to myths. (I think myths persist in part because people find fun in making doomsday predictions.)
Good article but I didn't like the rainbow video.
As I just published a book of personal Taos stories on Amazon Kindle, the issue of reviews for ebooks suddenly becomes more relevant.
Seems like someone is missing a terrific opportunity here. Googling "ebook reviews" brings up a few sites, but nothing truly trustworthy or authoritative. (BTW, if anyone out there wants a review PDF, just holler.) I would be happy to correspond with anyone who has ideas in this area and share the meager information I possess.
In the meantime, Nathan, thank you for this post. I've bookmarked your blog and will return!
Exactly what I was NOT talking about!
https://ljsellers.com/wordpress/the-new-gatekeepers
(HT to @mikecane)
Thanks for the sanity, even amidst the humor.
Hi Nathan,
Excellent list. Thanks so much.
King County Library (suburban Seattle) offers e-readers, I believe. I was told that they are for the folks who need the big-print books…because of course that can be easily done on an e-reader, right?
Program coordinator Deborah Schneider was the one who suggested the move, if memory serves.
Behold!
Yet I myself am impartial to Lo!
Not to be confused with Lol.
Well done, Nathan. Not sure about how you can shoot down "future myths" with any certainty but at least you are acknowledging what a lot of people in your position don't want to hear.
But I also predict the platforms created by co-op and major publisher push will become less important in the next decade, as the audience starts anointing bestsellers instead of advance money pre-determining them. You hit on it with the rainbow guy but that will become the way more authors make it than the other way. In other words, hype will trump quality every single time, just as it does today.
Scott Nicholson
https://www.hauntedcomputer.com
Re: cost of ebook readers making literature an elite privilege. Undoubtedly at a certain point there will be more opportunities to buy used ebook readers. Presently, a laptop that sells for $1000 new goes for under $200 on ebay a couple years later.
Also I thought your opening was funnier if you stopped at the end of the first paragraph 😉
I can't say a little literal once fast. Good post. Very interesting.
E-book readers continue to drop in price. New Kindle is $139. That's almost affordable.
I think that ebooks will change how we teacher. I will no longer have to go to the teacher supply stores and get my curriculum guides. I think that it is wonderful.