Publishing industry sage Mike Shatzkin wrote a post recently that was dash of smelling salts by way of a sledgehammer.
The post’s title says it all: “Where Will Bookstores Be Five Years From Now?”
If you take Shatzkin’s premise that e-books will comprise 50% of the book market in five years (which is current conventional wisdom in the industry; Shatzkin actually thinks that’s conservative), he estimates that brick and mortar stores’ share of the marketplace will likely plummet from approximately 72% of the market today to 25% in five years. (The other 25% in the print market will be made up of print sales via online booksellers.)
72% to 25%. Five years. Yowza.
These last few years have been incredibly tumultuous for the industry. The recession and the Great Digital Transition combined forces to wallop the industry, and the effects are everywhere: shrinking lists, closing imprints, shuttering indie stores, a vanishing mid-list, and belt-tightening across the board.
Things changed a lot in a short period of time. And it’s still quite possible that these last few years were a relative walk in the park compared to what’s to come.
If 75% to 25% transpires it will have huge implications for the way books are planned, marketed, acquired, published, and discovered. Everything from the seasonal publishing calendar to print runs to marketing campaigns will be in for reevaluation.
And yet…
As I’ve said before, people are still buying and reading books. The ease of access afforded by e-books might even mean they’ll buy more when they can download a book at home rather than planning a trip to the bookstore. To be sure, there is lots still to be worked out on the author side, including paltry royalties and more reliance on authors for platforms and buzz-making.
But the challenges the industry is facing are on the distribution side of things — it’s literally a massive shift in how text gets from author to reader (and how reader discovers author). Anyone who is part of the paper side of things is going to feel the squeeze.
Still, even as seemingly everything changes, there’s a lot that will remain the same. Authors will still write books, publishers will still be the go-to place to put a book together and market it, there will be self-publishing for those who want to go it alone, and readers will have still more choice and ease of access. E-readers are steadily getting more affordable ($99 Sony Readers sold out in the blink of an eye) and contrary to the doomsayers, e-books are not an existential threat to the world of literature. Words are words are words are words no matter how you read them (you’re reading pixels now, ain’t ya?)
It’s certainly a wild ride, but it’s a roller coaster, not a death spiral.
Deb says
That's it! I will only give (printed) books as gifts for birthdays, Hannukah, mother's day, anniversaries, etc. … that and donations to charities. (sigh)
Locusts and Wild Honey says
I looked up the other day and realized I hadn't set foot in a physical bookstore in two, maybe three years.
And yet I'm reading more than ever.
In fact, I READ ON MY IPHONE. I feel like some hip Japanese teenager, but the device disappears in your hand and it's just one less thing to remember to bring on the train.
I agree it's going to be a rocky couple of years for the book industry and my heart goes out to everyone who must adjust to this shift.
Erika Robuck says
Thank you for your optimistic perspective. This is why I love your blog.
Felicity says
If any of this is based on my own book buying habits, sales of books in general will definitely go up. Impulse buys are WAY up for me. With iBooks and Kindle apps on my iPad, it is just too easy to click and add. I think we've picked up at least three new titles in the last week – that's a crazy lot more than we usually bought from traditional bookstores in the same time period.
Johnaskins says
Why paltry royalties?
Anonymous says
I guess I'm strange! I love the book store. I got at least once a month and do a shopping spree. I sometimes go once a week. And I HATE e-books. Don't get me wrong, I've read a free novella or two posted online, but I hate trying to read a whole book on a computer screen. Maybe, I'm nostalgic. I like the glow of my desk lamp, the warmth of my bed and the feel of the pages between my fingers.
Claire Robyns says
Interesting post. Everyone one I know who is still on the fence about e-readers have one major concern – they're afraid their impulse buying is going to get out of hand. So, yes, digital brings purchase point to your finger tips and that means more readers, not less
Anonymous says
*got* in the first line should be "go." My apologies.
Lia Victoria says
I was so skeptical of all things e-book related until I found your blog about a year ago. I've started talking about your posts to my mom, and I think she's slowly beginning to see the tide is changing.
1) Monkeys will rule the writersphere in a matter of years – nay – months.
2) Instead of a B&N gift card this year, I might get $50 toward purchasing an e-reader.
See? Progress. :]
jtb says
i still have a perhaps deluded hunch that books will be better produced as a result of the changes, more collectible, better printed and designed and will still be used to line our shelves, decoratively maybe, and as more interesting gifts – look @ Penguins clothbound classics for a start
interesting, as always
Kate Larkindale says
I must be old fashioned. I still love paper books. The way the spine cracks when you open a new book for the first time, the smell of paper and ink. You just don't get that with an e-reader. Plus, my favourite place to read is the bath, and I don't think an e-reader will survive a dunk as well as a paper book….
Anonymous says
Well said, although I must say that the roller coaster and reading tech revolution has me agonizing over the direction I want to take when I finish my manuscript.
I can self publish both in print and in ebook format easily enough. My only problem with that is marketing. To market myself, I must be social. I must be connected. I must be personable and a character that people want to engage online. In other words, I must fight to be heard above the din of every other blogger, forum poster, tweeter and facebooker out there. True?
What if I'm a great writer and storyteller, but an anti-social SOB (think Salinger)?
Do I need to suck it up and learn how to be social and an e-lebrity?
Would I need to behave similarly if I were being published through traditional means, or does being represented by an agent and a publisher mean that most of the marketing role lies with them?
Honestly, I do wonder how much the tech revolution is changing the marketing landscape for authors.
Tahereh says
just one of the many reasons why i love your blog. your perennial optimism is like a life raft.
thanks.
Marilyn Peake says
Technology has increased at an astounding rate in the last decade alone, and shows no sign of slowing down. Our world and how we read books will most likely be vastly different even a few decades from now. It’s great fun to write futuristic sci fi, as I did with my latest novel, because the writer can extrapolate from current events and guess what’s coming down the technological highway. Catching up on some Twitter tweets today, I discovered the following futuristic events already underway:
Body as Battery
and
Skydiver to jump from edge of space
and
First NASA Astronaut To Send Live Tweet From Space Hosts Tweetup In The Nation’s Capitol
Joseph L. Selby says
I love how X in "In X years, ebooks will have a majority market share" keeps getting smaller. It was twenty, then ten, and now five. Change is a coming! Wheeeeeeeeee!
StaceyW says
Your. Blog. Is. Awesome.
I came across it fairly recently, and I'm totally addicted. I'm in the spot I'm sure a lot of your followers are in: polishing my manuscript until it shines while learning as much as I can as fast as I can about the publishing industry.
Your blog has such a great balance of info on the industry, insight on how to break in as a writer, and advice on craft. (Your comments the other day on showing vs. telling were so timely for me.)
This comment doesn't have much to do with e-books and the emerging digital age, but it just inspired me to say THANKS!
Kristin Laughtin says
I was scared at the beginning of this post (as someone who will be looking to debut somewhere in the middle of all this craziness) but reassured by the end. Thank you.
@Anonymous: Even traditional publishers are expecting more from their authors in terms of self-marketing, so you will probably have to learn to engage with the online community. I don't think that means you have to be sunny and personable to get noticed; a great many people get noticed for being snarky or having something interesting or timely to say, even if it's critical or pointed, etc. If it reassures you, I'm a bit scared too about trying to stand out from the masses. Very few of us will get the type of marketing dollars that went into Twilight or The Da Vinci Code.
Kerrie says
Well said and I am ready to strap myself in for the ride–it should be a good one.
Jaimie says
I'm looking forward to it. I think it will be better for EVERYONE involved. Publishers, writers, agents, readers. The publishers might take a hit in profits, but again, I think that will be better for everyone involved.
Katrina L. Lantz says
Brilliant, as usual! Thanks for your words of wisdom on this!
Anonymous says
I bought my LAST books from Barnes and Noble a month ago. I have, historically, typically bought $40-70. worth of books every time I have gone in that bookstore, even if it is twice a week.
A month ago, in two purchases, i bought about ten books. Four of them were gifts. It turned out that the person I bought the gifts for already had three of the books, so I wanted to return them for a trade for other books. They were obviously unread in top condition.
Barnes and Noble COULD look up my transactions (via checks) but because I had misplaced my receipts and because I have not renewed a book discount membership (that costs $25.00 a year), they will not allow me even a store credit.
Tsk-tsk. Poor customer service.
(As a comparison: My husband and I recently bought a new coffee maker at Linens and Things. A part broke three months later and the store just replaced the whole coffee maker, no questions, no receipt.)
I went directly to the one remaining independent bookstore in our town and bought my next purchases there.
I may browse again at B & N, but they have lost my business.
Mira says
Love the title, the picture in this post (!) and the phrase: 'smelling salts by way of a sledgehammer.' Awesome. 🙂
Like many posters, I love your optimistic and balanced perspective. Change will come, but it doesn't have to be a living nightmare. There is opportunity and potential for positive growth here, too.
Like Locusts and Wild Honey, I'm reading on my I-phone. I just got the Kindle app., and I feel like a kid in a candy store. I love reading on my phone. It fits in my pocket, and I take it everywhere anyway. I love the feel of it in my hand.
I am concerned about e-book royalities. I have been wondering something, but I'm worried people will misinterpret this question as hostile to the industry. It's not. I'm looking out for myself – appropriately.
Here's the question: would it be better to self-publish to Kindle before approaching a publisher for print? The reason for this is to lock in the e-book royalty rate at the 35% offered by Amazon?
Would that lock it in?
Because I would be concerned going to a print publisher right now, and locking in my e-book royalty rate for all time at a piddling amount. That's really messing myself as an author over.
Am I on track with this? I wonder if this is something for authors and agents to think about. It affects agents too because they are directly impacted by author's royalty rates.
Anonymous says
And, as for Amazon, their service is topnotch with one exception: warning: do NOT buy from independent sellers.
We bought a used book in "new" condition. It arrived with mildew. When I complained, the seller threatened us if we gave them a bad review and was horrid. It was actually very intimidating.
We gave them a bad review and complained anyway and they were dropped by Amazon, but Amazon cannot guarantee the honesty or integrity of independent sellers. You buy from them at your own risk.
Mira says
Sorry – want to add one thing.
The downside to publishing to Kindle first is the lack of editor review. So, I would have think about having my book heavily edited prior to self-publishing.
Although – I wonder if agents will be willing to get involved earlier in the process? Help someone finalize their book, self-publish to Kindle, and if response is good, seek out a print publisher.
I'd still like to know if the self-published e-book rate would stand in the print publisher contract though.
Corey says
I would love to hear from Nathan or anyone about writers being involved in digital book design.
It seems like the role of the writer could tilt more toward being hands-on with multimedia content versus just turning in a manuscript. I know that journalists are now becoming saavy at this (e.g. incorporating video and photography into articles), but I haven't read anyplace about book authors helping to craft the future of the e-book format.
buildingalife says
Man that is disheartening. I think it came via bulldozer instead of sledgehammer.
I got an iPad as a wedding gift (no we didn't register at apple), and I wasn't too impressed. The glare alone that reflected the massive zit on my chin did it in for me.
Out of all the e-readers I've seen I still very much prefer paper books, and not just because of my own vanity. Maybe even more than that I enjoy spending my day in a bookstore or library. There's something about being in a single place that contains so many people, ideas, and dreams that has always been incredibly magical to me and I would hate to see brick and mortar stores go. There's also something about having physical books on the bookshelves in my house that I love. Imagine having a bookshelf with just an e-reader on it. Not very dramatic is it?
But as always, beautiful silver lining in the post. I hope you're right.
Michele from PA says
I still am vacillating between e-books and real books. I
love the feel of paper in my hands but I am intrigued by e-books.
The one thing I think about a lot though is children's books. I read every night to my three kids. Where does that all play in to the e-book market? I can't imagine reading Fancy Nancy or Spiderman on an e-reader. It feels really weird….
Michele from PA says
I should also add that taking my kids to the bookstore is a really special thing that I cherish and they consider a big deal. I would hate to see that go away…
Katrina L. Lantz says
Reply to Michele:
I'm with you, though I have recently read The Mouse and the Motorcycle to my 3yo on our Nook, and it was just fine. The pictures are black and white, which definitely needs an upgrade. I think they're working on getting a non-back-lit screen with color, though, right?
I find the e-reader is actually helpful when I'm reading to my baby because he can't crinkle the pages of our favorite children's stories.
My main lament about the loss of brick and mortar stores stems from my own vanity. I want to be published on paper, and will be infinitely disappointed if paper doesn't exist by the time that happens.
Doug Pardee says
I wonder if we shouldn't differentiate between books and novels.
I don't see books going away for quite a while yet. For technical reference works, professional reference works, textbooks, cookbooks, coffee table books, and children's books, ink on paper provides a number of advantages over the e-book. Especially over the black-and-white EPUB e-book.
For narrative works, and novels in particular, the physical book doesn't really offer much that an e-book doesn't, except to those for whom the book is a fetish.
(Yes, Kate, you can read an e-reader in the bath. There are a number of suppliers of waterproof covers for e-readers. Plus, many users find that a Ziploc works quite nicely and at almost no cost.)
MJR says
I just got laid off after 12 years with a book printer and my local bookstore closed. Feels like books are disappearing (along with my career).
swampfox says
I agree with Katrina. I want to be published on paper, but I'm a guy who also wanted to be recorded on vinyl. Wow, was it that long ago?
Katrina L. Lantz says
Doug, there was a college president who just got rid of their entire library and replaced it with ereaders for students. Books are books, apparently.
lora96 says
i love book stores but as long as there are stories, written words, i'm not too worried about format.
Jill says
Sounds like bookstores need to start bundling paper books and e-books. Buy the book, get the e-book free.
Ryan Z Nock says
But where will I go to sip coffee and be hip if the all the bookstores with Starbucks close down?
D.G. Hudson says
Some predictions seem to have an underlying purpose, they make us aware of subtle changes taking place now that could cause subsequent major upheavals down the road. If we're informed about these changes, we can make more knowledgeable choices regarding our own path to publishing.
I'll read as long as I can see, so whatever the format, I'll be there supporting authors and their books. I would like to see some of these heritage and indie bookstores venture out into other services perhaps directed at the new authors, and self-published authors. Of course that takes capital, etc., etc.
@INK or Nathan – are there services that could be provided to authors – POD, working with self-pubs, & writer panels open to the public — which could help them survive?
Amanda Sablan says
72% to 25% in five years. Sheesh, that's crazy.
I still don't really care for e-readers, but if the printed word really does become extinct one day, I'll get over it. Words are words, I guess, like you said.
As we know, a similar change is happening with movie rentals, as the brick-and-mortar Blockbuster is quickly going out of business while more of us turn to the Internet or PayPerView for our movie-viewing needs. But all that's doing is getting more of us to stay inside our houses all the time.
Mary McDonald says
I used Mike Shatzkin's blog post as jumping off point for my blog today too.
I find it sad, but unless some changes are made in how bookstores sell books, it's a likely scenario. I posted my idea of how a bookstore should change over on my blog.
Sheila Cull says
Oh my God how sad. But I want in on the band electronic wagon. Does anybody know of any e-lit agents that offer an advance?
treena & kootenay says
there are lots of independent booksellers who are ready to jump into the e-market. we just need publishers to make the leap with us. we run blogs, staff picks, and readings that can be shifted towards online content. and lots of our customers trust us with their email addresses. the e-future is not bad. maybe it will even help make up for the shift of bestsellers buyers to the big box stores.
David Lipari says
The whole e-book debate is interesting. I find myself in bookstores searching the shelves for books that have been recommended to me, or I've heard about through some other channel. I often don't find them, but when I do, I buy them. I bring them home and put them on a shelf to read sometime in the future.
I don't think I'd buy an e-book to not read it right away. If bookstores go away or diminish to the point of not carrying a robust selection of titles, this habit of mine goes away. I feel sad about that.
Dan says
If 50% of the market goes to e-books then bookstores are over. There may be a few that can keep their doors open in very large cities, but the vast majority will not be able to make rent on one-third the current sales volume. The indies and the chains will all be gone and publishing, which seems to be a business model designed around its ability to sell to bookstore accounts, will have to change radically.
But Shatzkin is way too bullish on e-books. Publishers are pushing e-book prices to $12.99 with agency pricing, and accounts are pushing hardcover prices down to $14.99, and, without a powerful price incentive driving adoption, reader interest in e-books is going to dissipate. E-readers are fine, and many readers will buy them for public domain books and inexpensive e-books. But a book is text on a page, and there's nothing an e-reader can do better than paper. Holding price even, I'd bet most readers will take a book over an e-book.
The price gap between kindle books and print books in hardcover has shrunk considerably, and the price gap for books in paperback is often zero. For the same money, most readers will prefer a book that they can lend or sell, and that isn't locked to a proprietary file format and reading device.
I bet e-books won't be more than ten percent of total book sales in five years, and many readers who purchase e-reader devices will probably go back to buying mostly physical books.
Pete says
And yet, as the owner of not only a new and booming bookstore, but a fast growing new press, we have more business than we can even deal with.
The problem with the industry is that it's grown too big to support itself on the overwhelming amount of dreck that it publishes. Instead of a house publishing twenty terrible books a year and hoping for a blockbuster, it should be publishing two or three that will stand the test of time and sell perpetually.
Over and over again, we've seen with our customers that people are thirsty for good literature, they simply don't know where, or how, to find it anymore. We solve that problem. We only sell books that we believe strongly in. Our entire inventory is less than 200 books and we can't keep them in stock.
When it comes to publishing, we put out books that we believe in, regardless of their perceived market value, and we ensure that the physical book itself is a beautiful creation not just in its writing but in its design and binding.
Because people trust our track record and know that we represent quality of a very specific and rare order, they buy our books without even knowing what they are about and, again, we can't print them fast enough.
Cherie says
Hello Nathan,
I enjoy reading your blog very much and have given you 'The Versatile Blogger' award.
Cherie Le Clare
Author of FRENCH KISS
http://www.cherieleclare.com/blog/
J. T. Shea says
Why not ask the octopus?
Alice says
My concern with e-books is the fact that one person could purchase and then send the book to friends who send it to friends and soon the book has lots of readers but no money exchanged.
No one seems to talk about the easy forwarding of information through email.
Just wondering about that.
Wordy Birdie says
How refreshing, and it makes good sense.
I know I buy a lot more music now it's at my fingertips, at will. Ahhh… instant gratification! *BURP!* Pardon me.
So, yes absolutely, let's look at the future with optimism, and let us make it so.
Jessica says
Actually, reading ebooks hurts my eyes and makes me feel like I'm reading a 1,000 page book rather than a 300 page one because I go slower. I would almost always rather read a print book than one on my pc.
Mira says
J.T. – Lol. That octopus is amazing.
Nathan – congratulations! Over 4,000 followers. Wow. Landmark.