While clicking around the Internet over the weekend I found myself on the Cognitive Bias page on Wikipedia, which is incredibly interesting. Um. Unless of course I’m just fooling myself.
Anyway, eventually I found my way to a page about the Dunning-Kruger effect. Have you heard of this?
The basic theory is that when people are incompetent at something they tend to lack the ability to realize it and they overrate their abilities relative to others. Meanwhile, people who actually are good at something tend to underrate their abilities and may as a result suffer from lack of confidence.
It got me thinking of all those insanely talented writers out there in fits of despair thinking they’re not any good. Could it be that they’re just suffering from a little Dunning-Kruger effect?
Take it away Wikipedia!
The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which “people reach erroneous conclusions and make unfortunate choices but their incompetence robs them of the metacognitive ability to realize it”. The unskilled therefore suffer from illusory superiority, rating their own ability as above average, much higher than in actuality; by contrast the highly skilled underrate their abilities, suffering from illusory inferiority. This leads to a perverse result where less competent people will rate their own ability higher than more competent people. It also explains why actual competence may weaken self-confidence because competent individuals falsely assume that others have an equivalent understanding. “Thus, the miscalibration of the incompetent stems from an error about the self, whereas the miscalibration of the highly competent stems from an error about others.”
Anonymous says
I doubt Cormac McCarthy thinks he sucks at writing. But I bet if you asked him, he'd say he still hasn't written his best work.
I suck at almost everything, but I've always liked to write. It's the only thing I do half-well. And it's true that the merest criticism of my writing (mostly coming from my internal voice) can put me in a tailspin for a week. I suck, I suck, I suck…
But I'm always drawn back in. Because even though I know I'm no Cormac McCarthy, I do get satisfaction from seeing my writing improve. Usually that's enough to give me the confidence to keep going.
reader says
This is brilliant. My crippling self-doubt actually means I'm probably a really good writer!
Oh, wait, then why can't I get published? 🙂
I do think this is true, though. It explains why stupid people are often happier — they're too stupid to know they shouldn't be.
Susan Quinn says
Leila – I know what you mean about those psych tools that put people into quadrants. I think they are fascinating as well (Mom's a psychologist, so I have some respect for the work behind it too). But I still think those things only help if they bring you positive insight into who you are. If you happen to land waaaay off in one wacky corner of the box, when everyone else is nestled, nice and normal, in the middle, well what does that mean? Either you're genius or completely mental. Or both. (er, not that this every happened to me. No! It was my friend. I swear! 🙂
I'm generally very on board with the idea of knowing yourself, your limits, and your abilities. Work to your strengths and shore up those weaknesses. All cliche, and yet very difficult to follow.
Kristen Torres-Toro says
Ooh–maybe this means I'm brilliant? :0)
Adam Pepper says
I KNOW I am awesome at picking winners in NCAA hoops. That inner confidence is clearly reflected on my sheet.
Leila says
Susan
Yep, great points and I think the thing with using any sort of tool is to recognise that it is only that – a tool.
It's one tool in our toolkit towards helping us find out more about ourselves. My personal belief is that unearthing all the bits – the good, the bad and the ugly – ultimately work for good in the end because we work out more about ourselves as a whole person, (in Johari Window you have to consider all quadrants, I'm just suggesting the 3rd and 4th have a bigger impact) which is good either for healing, for growing, for learning, for anything.
In terms of writing, I think this contributes to a writer having a stronger internal frame of reference. They can more easily draw from their own internal experience on sad things, happy things, challenging things, responses, reactions, decisions, you name it, it's possible.
I stress again though, that I'm only saying these are tools, not answers. What Nathan found is a theory that raises good questions for us to consider. It's then what we do with the questions they pose for us as individuals that matters.
I have no idea if this makes sense to anyone other than me. It's late here and I have run out of chocolate.
Ed Miracle says
Of course I lack confidence. I'm standing here in mid-air, trying not to look down, and some twit from Fox News wants to know if I think I'll make it to the other side!
K.L. Brady says
I could definitely use more confidence. I still nearly faint at the sign of a new review on my book, dreading what it might say. So, it's good to know I may not be as bad as I think I am. 🙂
(As an aside, you've probably already seen this but I thought you might find the ebook part of particular interest. Someone just posted this on another forum.)
https://www.scribd.com/doc/28748300/AAP-Reports-Publishing-Sales-for-Month-of-January
Brittany says
Hmmm, I don't think I'm good at writing. Usually, my writing sucks. But I don't think that I'm actually underrating my abilities. Which one am I?
Nicole L Rivera says
Interesting…I hope it's true 🙂
Rebecca says
Well this helps 🙂 sorta, I definitely lack confidence when it comes to my writing x( sometimes I'm to worried to read my own work, afraid that it'd be all in vain and have to throw it out (I did that once, my friends wouldn't stop calling me an idiot for about a month)
J.J. Bennett says
Please let it be so… 🙂
I do think if you push yourself to better your work you'll always come out ahead of the game. I sometimes spend a half hour on something and walk away from it happy. Other times I second guess myself until I just "know" it works. -May not be perfect… but getting there!
Ink says
Luckily this doesn't apply universally. 🙂 Kinda hoping I'm in the confident-with-good-reason group rather than the grossly delusioned one. Maybe I'll steal some Avatar 3D glasses and everything will burst into clarity.
Terry Stonecrop says
I think most writers think their writing isn't good enough.
Munk says
Oh the humanity! Nathan, Nathan… What have you done, did you really have to pop open that can of hash? Those once quiet voices in my head have begun shrieking at one another again.
Am I Northern Iowa or am I Kansas? Wait, don't answer that, you haven't seen my best stuff yet…
Livia says
Cool, I hadn't heard of that study but it kinda makes sense when you think about it. So the question is, what if I have a medium level of confidence in my writing?
Tracy Hahn-Burkett says
What does Dunning-Kruger have to say about those of us who bounce from "I think, if I really, really work hard enough, that I might just be able to write something worth reading," to "Oh my God, I can't believe how bad I suck" and back again in less time than it takes to write this comment? (And then we do it again an hour later. And again.)
JTShea says
I find your lack of faith disturbing, Young Bransford. You doubt I can rule the universe? Do you have addresses for Dunning and Kruger so my minions can liquidate them?
Nathan Bransford says
jtshea-
I can only imagine the openings to Dunning's and Kruger's research papers: "This really isn't a very good paper and we're so sorry to have bothered you with it but we kind of have this idea that people probably aren't interested at all but oh well here it is…"
Amanda says
Awesome! Then my writing must be stellar.
d minus says
i'm confident in my writing about 25% of the time. I used to be at 50%… but after I finished my novel, a quarter of my time became occupied with the question of:
"what the hell am I thinking!?"
The Red Angel says
Hm, well this definitely makes me feel a little better. =] I'm VERY self-conscious about showing my writing to other people, especially my family.
Perhaps there's more to my writing than nonsensical strings of letters. xD Thank you for the confidence boost!
Andrea Franco-Cook says
This is so true Nathan. There are times during the writing process which I think, "Wow! this is great." Then, when I read my work the following day, I realize it is crap.
In contrast, whenever I think my work stinks, betas report the opposite. Needless to say, I remain in a constant state of confusion.
d minus says
red-
i have the same problem. I don't let family read anything I've written.
MJR says
I think you have to be both humble and delusional to succeed as a writer. I've run into too many writers, however, who are delusional only.
Anonymous says
That said, lack of confidence can be seriously self-defeating. After I was fired from my first teaching job, one of my supervisors said I reported too many problems, and had I given off more of a veneer of confidence, I might have kept the position. I took the advice to heart, gave my supervisors only good news (handling problems on my own the best I could) and never got fired from a teaching job again. Was I more confident as a teacher? Maybe a little, as a result of gaining experience and seeing my students advance, but not to the level I needed to show for my supervisors to take me seriously.
That leads us to the next condition: Impostor Syndrome.
Breeze says
I wonder where that leaves those of us who simply don't care? I write because I love it. Sometimes other people love my writing as well, sometimes they don't. I have a nice career doing what I love. I am writing a new book in a genre I've never tried before and I'll have to find a new publisher…if it deserves to be published it will be and if it doesn't it won't but I will love the story so I'm doing it.
But I truly love crafting images and living with characters and pulling bits of inspiration out of the air as I sit and write. I love learning about the craft and I love reading the masters of the craft.
I don't give the value of my work a lot of thought, when I'm in the middle of it all as to whether it's good or not and I rarely think about it after…I just love the journey through the story..am I odd?
Probably,
Breeze
Marilyn Peake says
This is an interesting study, but the results are more complicated than might appear at first blush. Here’s a link to the actual study:
"Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One’s Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments" by Justin Kruger and David Dunning, Cornell University.
The results show that, although competent research subjects didn’t originally assume they had performed much better than their peers, they were quickly able to more accurately assess their high level of ability after seeing the level at which their peers actually performed. The researchers hypothesized that people who function at a high level of excellence in a particular area may assume that most people perform equally well in that area until they see evidence to the contrary, and that highly competent individuals have a high enough level of metacognitive abilities to accurately evaluate where they stand in comparison to others when given enough information. I don’t believe the reasearch showed that competent individuals had low confidence in their abilities. On the contrary, they seemed to know that they had performed well; but underestimated exactly how well they did because they assumed their peers would have performed well, too. On the other hand, people who are incompetent in certain areas may also not have enough metacognitive abilities to accurately understand how their performance compares to others. Very interestingly, however, those trained to become more competent were then able to more accurately evaluate their performance in comparison to the performance of their peers. Also important to consider is that all the research subjects were Cornell University undergraduate students from a variety of psychology courses who earned extra credit for their participation in the research study; and, as with most psychological studies performed on university campuses, there’s some built-in bias, since samples of university students aren’t truly a random sample of the larger population.
Johan says
So uh, does that mean I'm a bad writer in a good way or a good writer in a bad way??
T. Anne says
I guess my natural self deprecation bodes well for me then.
Lydia Kang says
So…has Pfizer invented the pill to cure the disease? So we can see exactly what kind of writers we are? I wish. But then, it would be a hard pill to swallow, no?
Susan Quinn says
Wait, what? They were all psych majors? Well that explains everything…
🙂
Jill Elizabeth says
awesome. now if I can just get past the crippling self-doubt…
Pamala Knight says
Sounds suspiciously like the Peter Principle. Thanks for sharing.
Angelica Weatherby says
I write to prove how horrible a writer I am (not even 1 years of experience) but it always backfires. Any comments I do receive about my writing is mainly unique, interesting, or love it. Short Novel(Long Novella): 'It's ready to be published' I hope this theory isn't true to me but seems to be true. 🙂 Great post!
D. G. Hudson says
Support systems are what generally give writers more confidence — these could be critique groups, friends, or other writers. If your work has been reviewed or posted online or published in other formats, then you're more likely to have a greater sense of confidence.
Confidence can be weakened by all the hoops (not basketball ones) that writers must jump through to get in the gate. Rejection tends to undermine the confidence as well. There are many factors that affect confidence, but only a few that we can control. I think you need a good dose of confidence in your own abilities.
Other Lisa says
I'm just going to laugh and nod.
Liesl says
Isn't this displayed so nicely through American Idol?
Phyllis says
I'm with Marilyn Peake. I believe, Nathan, that you slightly over-interpreted the results.
In general, the self-confidence of the competent participants was higher than the confidence of the incompetent ones, though they did still underestimate their performance relative to their peers. That means they said "I'm in the top 20" when indeed they were in the top 10. It does not mean competent participants lacked confidence.
Regarding writers, the Dunning-Kruger effect may explain why agents receive queries, written with an utter confidence, that contrasts sharply with the actual quality of the work. But competent writers would also display confidence — it has just a better foundation in reality.
Nathan Bransford says
marilyn and phyllis-
Thanks for the additional background info! I'm by no means an expert on these studies.
Michael says
Good grief, that's interesting!
I've spent my life in the creative efforts (music, writing, fine arts) and surrounded myself with people doing the same thing. It's amazing to me how many of these talented people blush at compliments and have so very little confidence in their talents. It may be because it comes so easy for them that they don't feel their creations are anything out of the ordinary.
I've also seen the opposite side of the coin. That's the sad part. And from the number of rejections I receive, perhaps I'm in the latter group. (Hey, that guy can't write, but he doesn't know it.)
Loved this informative post!
Mira says
This is a really, really interesting discussion. I liked so many points – Daisy, Marilyn, Ink.
So, I'll add this.
First, I think the theory is alittle flawed, but raises some fascinating questions.
In terms of flawed, well, for example: I suck at art. I really, really suck art. Trust me, I'm not deluding myself. Boy, do I suck. And I do not have a co-corresponding belief that I'm fantastic at art.
But in terms of writing, I've gotten good feedback, but I never believe it. But I secretly do. But every time I sit down to write something, I doubt myself so much, I often freeze. But in my mind, I imagine writing epics that sing to the angels. And on some level, I think I might be able to do that.
But I secretly know I can't. But I secretly think maybe I can?????
I think there are other factors not included in the theory. Personality types may deal with things differently. In addition, the importance of dreams may play a part. Fear of failure. Fear of success. Fear of losing a dream. Fear of not being good enough. Fear of acheiving your dream, and then what? And, of course, there's always those childhood voices and experiences that can either stop you in your tracks until you work it through, or help you to race forward because you believe in yourself or make you misjudge your own abilities.
Not only that, but it's important to separate confidence from assessment of one's own abilities. Those can be two different things.
So, I think it's very complicated, but very important to discuss for many reason, but especially this one:
Writing talent and confidence are not necessarily correlated.
I have more to say (can you believe it 🙂 But later.
Wow, awesome, thanks, Nathan. Great discussion!
Anonymous says
I wonder what this study means for certain haughty editors who believe they know best what the readers of the world want, yet only seem to profit off a small percentage of the novels which are published.
Or what about publishing houses that pretend to select only the “highest quality” manuscripts, but then get terrible reviews and low sales for the churning out the same ole crap year after year?
Do they ever look at their results (and lack of them) and attempt a different course of action or do they just blame writers for not producing enough quality work? Why should they self-evaluate and change when they can just blame writers for not developing their platforms? It’s easier to just decry the rise in self-published novels which have slipped through the cracks, but after gathering a following have suddenly become “quality enough” for representation by those in the ivory towers.
I know writers (at least those of us here on these blogs studying the industry and honing our craft) often look at themselves and attempt to improve. Are mirrors ever used in NYC?
Charmaine Clancy says
I'm also wondering now if people who feel less confident work harder at improving their skills constantly, which would also have the affect of producing more competent writing? Hmmmm.
GalaktioNova says
As a performing artist, I know literally hundreds of hugely talented people falling under this rule.
I'm off to send this to a friend of mine, an enormously talented writer who thinks he's total rubbish! I couldn't convince him, now I have science on my side! Thank you so much!!
(Oh, I know I'm rubbish too, but I've learned to mock self-confidence so they'll never know :-)))
wendy says
Um, so where does positive thinking fit into all this? *g*
Btw, interesting theory. It adds fuel to my speculation that perhaps we can't many of our own thoughts.
E. Elle says
Now when I have those rare moments when I think I'm talented, I'll be wondering if I'm just overrating myself! Ugh, vicious cycle.
LCS249 says
oh god, I hope not …
wendy says
Omitted a word in my post, above. Should be: '…can't trust many of our own thoughts.'
ryan field says
This is interesting. I feel better now about not being confident.