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December 3, 2009 by Nathan Bransford 102 Comments

I’m dealing with some computer problems here at work, which is complicating an already busy week. Fiendish computers! Must you toy with me so?

Meanwhile, just wanted to recap my (unscientific) poll from yesterday.

The percentage of people who said you’d have to pry paper books out of their cold dead hands:

2007: 49%
2008: 45%
2009: 37%

The percentage of people who welcome their coming e-book overlords:

2007: 7%
2008: 11%
2009: 19%

That, my friends, is what they call a trend.

And in case you’re wondering if computer problems are affecting my affinity for e-books: nope. An e-book of CHILD 44 is an engrossing distraction on my iPhone while I wait for things to load.

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Reader Interactions

Comments

  1. GhostFolk.com says

    December 3, 2009 at 10:53 pm

    As much as I'm not thrilled with this trend, I hope it bodes well for writers, as in more book sales.

    Terry:

    This bodes well to me: eBooks are not provided to retellers on consignment.

    NO RETURNS!
    NO SHIPPING COSTS!
    NO WAREHOUSING!
    NO BINDERS WITH QUESTIONABLE GLUE IN CHINA!

    Returns for midlist books was hitting 40 to 50% last year and this year… and going up. These books end up being remaindered (and selling for less than they would as eBooks — and without a royalty to the author).

    Better-selling books were going into second printings in hardcover to keep up with lay down and initial demand… meanwhile, six months later, almost half of the first hc printings were being returned to the publisher (often on credit against future and past other-title orders figured in the mix) and were either warehoused (at some expense), remaindered or pulped.

    Borders UK went kaput over the weekend. I imagine some publishers got stuck with unpaid for stock in the middle.

    Reply
  2. Anonymous says

    December 3, 2009 at 11:15 pm

    Just curious, how many ebooks have you sold this year?

    How many paper books have you sold this year?

    Reply
  3. Paula B. says

    December 3, 2009 at 11:15 pm

    Ah, Nathan, it's only a trend if you polled the same people each year.

    Reply
  4. Kate says

    December 3, 2009 at 11:17 pm

    Because of all the information about ebooks/readers on your blog, I'm definitely more open to the idea. There are definite perks. The ideal scenario would be to have an ereader AND shelves full of books…both/and.

    Reply
  5. Laura Martone says

    December 3, 2009 at 11:21 pm

    Marilyn, that's hilarious! Reminds me of my hubby's idea to sell "fake" computers – that people can bash the heck out of when their "real" computers are giving them fits. I could use one of those right now. πŸ˜‰

    Reply
  6. Laura Martone says

    December 3, 2009 at 11:28 pm

    And apparently, so could Nathan.

    Reply
  7. Nathan Bransford says

    December 3, 2009 at 11:35 pm

    Btw, I know (and mentioned) the poll isn't scientific. But I don't think it's a coincidence either.

    Reply
  8. holly says

    December 3, 2009 at 11:43 pm

    man, computer problems suck.

    Reply
  9. Chuck H. says

    December 3, 2009 at 11:47 pm

    Just remember that when everything is computerized and digitized nothing can go wr
    o
    o
    o
    n
    g
    .

    Reply
  10. Terry says

    December 4, 2009 at 12:05 am

    GhostFolk – Thanks for the info! I've been enjoying your comments, in general, by the way.

    Reply
  11. Emily White says

    December 4, 2009 at 12:06 am

    I'm sorry, but I could just never switch over completely. I may get an e-reader someday (if the price goes down) for traveling and other things, but I loves me my full bookcase. A bookcase with all those pretty little things is just about the most beautiful thing you can put in your house. I love it too much to ever give up on it.

    However, I do find your unscientific poll interesting. It seems that people weren't as sure as they thought they were a few years ago. Hmm…

    Reply
  12. GhostFolk.com says

    December 4, 2009 at 12:12 am

    Sorry: retellers.

    Freudian slip? Twice Told Sales?

    Trust me, Terry, I always notice your comments, as well. Images first among the dull like myself. πŸ™‚

    Reply
  13. Sharon Mayhew says

    December 4, 2009 at 12:32 am

    Are you sure the trend isn't showing something else? The economy???

    Reply
  14. Elaine 'still writing' Smith says

    December 4, 2009 at 12:37 am

    Computers/laptops/handheld readers glitch and error – they've even been known to do poorly with the addition of steam.
    Downloaded books play hide and seek when they've been recalled… without the downloadees permission. πŸ™

    It would take a skilful thief – with questionable taste in literature (wandering off with the pile of books I'm currently reading) – to make me that miserable.

    Reply
  15. Barbara's blog says

    December 4, 2009 at 12:38 am

    Is Sony e book better than Amazon's Kindle? I want to buy one but don't know which is the best.

    Reply
  16. Kat Sheridan says

    December 4, 2009 at 12:44 am

    I'm old. I'm retired. I've been reading e-books since they were first available (and still read them on my original Dell PDA and have no intention of buying a single-pupose device for anything–even my can opener does more than just open cans). I also have well over a thousand books on my shelves, so yeah, I love those, too. But my default these days is e-books. Being old, and being retired, means I can go lots of places whenever I want, and my PDA is always in my pocket, ready with games and music and books anytime I want.

    Then again, I'm a girl geek from way back. I actually used to progam computers via punched cards (some of you whippersnappers may need to look that up, and marvel).

    And my way-older-than-me other half carries his audio books around on his PDA.

    Reply
  17. Courtney Price says

    December 4, 2009 at 12:57 am

    THAT is interesting.

    Reply
  18. Matera the Mad says

    December 4, 2009 at 1:33 am

    What did you do to those poor little computers? πŸ™

    Reply
  19. Steve says

    December 4, 2009 at 1:42 am

    Bear in mind that blog readers are a self-selected computer-literate sample. This will bias your stats. Remember the great polling snafu during the Truman/Dewey election?

    -Steve

    Reply
  20. Nathan Bransford says

    December 4, 2009 at 1:45 am

    Steve-

    I'm not printing any newspapers with this result, but e-book sales are up over 100% since last year. I think we're safe assuming a trend is afoot.

    Reply
  21. Steve says

    December 4, 2009 at 1:52 am

    Kat,

    I'm going to address you because you're one of the few people here who is approximately of my own generation. I too used to program with punched cards, on the first CDC 3600 sold outside the Federal Givernment.

    But I would never curl up in bed with a stack of punch cards. Nor a Decwriter, Nor a dumb CRT terminal. Nor a PC. Nor a laptop.

    Not even my cell phone. (I have thankfully completely bypassed the PDA, Crackberry and e-book reader hardware trends).

    I'll be blunt. We are actually talking cuddle-factor here. Nothing cuddles at night like bound paper. Novel, reference manual, whatever.

    Of course, maybe that's why I'm still single. πŸ™‚

    -Steve

    Reply
  22. bowerbird says

    December 4, 2009 at 1:59 am

    hmm…

    looks like 8% of your blog-readers
    died this year, which is double the
    4% who had died the year before…

    i hope they had friends and family
    who were willing and able to pry
    the book from their cold dead hand.

    -bowerbird

    Reply
  23. Steve says

    December 4, 2009 at 2:00 am

    Nathan,

    You're right, of course. I was just messin' with you. πŸ™‚

    -Steve

    Reply
  24. Steve says

    December 4, 2009 at 2:06 am

    Nathan,

    You know, on second or third thought, it would be a lot of fun to get results from a similar poll distributed at the checkouts of Barnes & Noble. Not that it would be practically feasible. Call it a thought experiment. πŸ™‚

    -Steve

    Reply
  25. Steve says

    December 4, 2009 at 2:27 am

    You know, I was half kidding in my comment to Kat about "cuddle-factor" (but onlu half). But more seriously, the one thing I doubt any existing e-book reader gets right is page flipping. This operation, with bound paper, is a simple and physically intuitive way to quickly locate a passage whose position in the book is approximately known. The rate, direction, and "chunkiness" of the flipping action is completely controlled by pressure and small quick intuitive movements of the left and right thumbs.

    It might be possible to get this right, but I don't think it will come from within the community of those now designing them. You would have to reach out to the folks who design specialized game controllers and say "do me a controller for this". And THOSE folks could probably get it right, because that's what they do.

    Interesting thought, no?

    -Steve

    P.S. You could almost imagine what it would look like. It would have a "clamshell" design which would open and show screens for left and right pages. But the backing behind each the screen would be thick, and the "edge" would be controller surface designed to page turn or to flip, in the manner of a paperbound book.

    The necessarily increased bulk of the design could be put to good use. By allowing more space for the electronics, internal design constraints could be less stringent and costs could probably be brought down.

    Just a thought,
    -Steve

    Reply
  26. Shelby says

    December 4, 2009 at 2:33 am

    trend? not so fast. What were the number of comments from year to year.. dig deeper. What other stats are involved.

    Reply
  27. Nick says

    December 4, 2009 at 2:48 am

    I wonder, though, how this trend will change as e-readers become more readily available. One thing I've noticed amongst fellow students around two years ago is when veritably every student seemed to have an iPod, a lot of studies made the conscious decision to leave their iPod somewhere about their home and go back to using an old CD player or other mp3 device. (And I still give massive props to the fellow who brought an old portable gramophone to school the one day, because that is just epic beyond words and frankly I would totally take one everywhere with me if I had one.) And then of course there are chaps like me, who will still be riding our horses and reading newspapers while the rest of you are using your fancy transporters and have books being beamed directly into your skulls. To quote the First Doctor, "I tolerate this century, but I don't enjoy it."

    Reply
  28. Nick says

    December 4, 2009 at 2:49 am

    *students, not studies.

    Always make the most random typos on the computer. and only ever the computer. By hand, more or less fine, and same goes for typewriter. But computer? Gibberish.

    Reply
  29. Terry says

    December 4, 2009 at 3:01 am

    GhostFolk – You could never be dull. That's why I read you. What's wrong with visual?

    Steve – I don't remember the Truman/Dewy election, but I've read about it. And I like your cuddle-factor. It's as much an emotional issue as a practical one. I think the insiders are missing that point. Of course, another few decades and it may be moot. They project, don't they.

    Reply
  30. Mira says

    December 4, 2009 at 3:27 am

    Nathan, you have my complete and total sympathy for your computer problems.

    I have soooo been there. Heck, I am there now. My computer locks whenever I use it for more than 30 minutes. I have to re-start it, and it takes 10 minutes to start up. Drives me crazy!!!!

    Let me pause for a moment. It's hard to type when you can't see through the blast of steam coming out of your ears….

    Okay, calm again. So, I share your aggravation. And I imagine this is the worst week for you, since you're just back from a vacation, which is always unbelievably hectic – a time when you really NEED your stupid computer.

    Anyway, I hope your computer either begins to behave properly and/or you can work from home with your lovely Mac.

    Um, so back to the thread……oh yes. E-books! Yea, E-books! They are so coming, and thank goodness.

    It continues to puzzle me that writers don't understand how much the e-book system will favor them…..e-books are our new best friends!

    Reply
  31. Anonymous says

    December 4, 2009 at 3:49 am

    I feel like every other post on this blog is about how everyone should love and will eventually love ebooks lol. Why can't we just accept that people have their own opinons and move on?

    Personally I like ebooks but it's boring having to say that over and over.

    Reply
  32. Diana says

    December 4, 2009 at 4:09 am

    The results of your poll are interesting. I think it shows that people are becoming more used to the idea of ebooks and ereaders.

    However, the data is skewed because your sample population is technologically savvy enough to find and follow your blog. πŸ™‚

    Reply
  33. Dara says

    December 4, 2009 at 4:11 am

    Going on off on a tangent here, but am I the only one who still uses a cell phone as a phone? You know, the kind where you make calls and maybe send and receive an occasional text message? πŸ˜›

    I seriously must be the only 25-year-old who doesn't use my phone to go online, read books, email, play games, generally waste time, etc. πŸ˜› Ok maybe not the ONLY 25 year old–hubby still has an old-fashioned phone too.

    I think I would heartily embrace all the nifty things an iPhone or Blackberry does if it didn't cost so much…

    Reply
  34. CommonSenseWriter says

    December 4, 2009 at 4:12 am

    I think one of the interesting things about the e-book debate is that people seem to think it's all or nothing. I have a Kindle and use Kindle on iPhone. I also bought three paper books in November. I look at e-books and e-readers as another way to read. Plus anything that might help do away with the returns issue is welcome.

    Reply
  35. Nathan Bransford says

    December 4, 2009 at 5:15 am

    I agree with those who don't think e-books are going to completely replace paper books. I don't even think all bookstores are going away. I'm asking for a few paper books for Christmas.

    But for the anons who think I'm blogging about e-books too much: people! There were scrolls and then there was Gutenberg and the printing press and then 500 years went by and books didn't change that much. Now they're changing. If you don't see that this is a really big deal and that it deserves lots of blog attention I don't know what to tell you.

    Reply
  36. Doralynn Kennedy says

    December 4, 2009 at 5:20 am

    I hate change. Hate trends too. Well, I'll just set up a printing press in my office. That way I know I'll always have print books… until I get caught and sent to prison for violating copyright.

    Reply
  37. Marilyn Peake says

    December 4, 2009 at 5:47 am

    Laura Martone,

    I would soooo love to have one of those "fake" computers to smash. I bet you and your husband could make a lot of money selling those things. πŸ™‚

    Reply
  38. Marilyn Peake says

    December 4, 2009 at 6:06 am

    Speaking of our modern electronically connected world, I saw an interesting story on the news about an hour ago. Has anyone else here heard about the DARPA Network Challenge to locate 10 red weather balloons, with the winner receiving $40,000? Quote posted on BoingBoing: "To mark the 40th anniversary of the Internet, DARPA has announced the DARPA Network Challenge, a competition that will explore the role the Internet and social networking plays in the timely communication, wide area team-building and urgent mobilization required to solve broad scope, time-critical problems. The challenge is to be the first to submit the locations of ten moored, 8 foot, red weather balloons located at ten fixed locations in the continental United States. Balloons will be in readily accessible locations and visible from nearby roadways." Here’s a direct link to the DARPA Network Challenge website: here.

    Reply
  39. Doralynn Kennedy says

    December 4, 2009 at 6:14 am

    Looks like it's too late to register for that. I'll go buy a lotto ticket instead.

    Reply
  40. Jenny says

    December 4, 2009 at 6:23 am

    Child 44 is an awesome book!

    Reply
  41. Nuria Coe says

    December 4, 2009 at 7:30 am

    Hi Nathan,
    It's 11:13 pm and I cannot stop reading your blog. I have learned more in the last week from you (and all your fellow commentators) than in my four years in college, honest.

    I am writing a fantasy YA novel and have a question regarding formatting and font color: I know that for the most part black text is the only way to go, but let's say that font color is part of the story (as was the case in Michael Ende's "The Neverending Story") Should that be reflected in the MS? Should the font be in different colors in the MS itself or should I just make a note about it in black? How about chapters where the text should be white on black pages? Or printed sideways?

    Thanks in advance!

    Reply
  42. Nathan says

    December 4, 2009 at 7:56 am

    Sure, give me an e-reader, but give me the digital copy to the books I purchase along with the paper copy I buy at the local bookstore. Barnes and Noble and Borders have got to be getting in on this and this could help keep the ball in their court.

    Besides, I'm not willing to trust my library to a formless nether, and I don't like the idea that places like Amazon maintain the power to snatch them away from my device from one day to the next(even if there were copyright concerns regarding a title's initial purveyance. That happened, unless I was misinformed.)

    Reply
  43. GhostFolk.com says

    December 4, 2009 at 9:56 am

    Terry: Just meant to say that your "signature image" captures my eye. πŸ™‚

    Reply
  44. Anonymous says

    December 4, 2009 at 10:33 am

    I just read through the comments (insomnia?) and realized how marvelouslty correct everyone is, including Nick on his horse, leaning in to hear the gramaphone through the open window. Remember when windows used to open?

    Truly a transitional period (of some duration) in publishing and preferences are bound (pun intended) to stay in place for quite some time.

    Being a day late, I guess few will notice this post. What I find most intriguing, including Gordon's inclination to get back into publishing, is the MAJOR change in the publishing business model that eBooks represent.

    Publishers provide books (or for now eBooks) to the trade. That's what their business is. Not always so.

    Most books in the Empire (the Napoleon one) period, when things really got going in mass-market lit, were generally published by the author (in rather small bits) and available for sale at the shops that printed them.

    Some lucky authors had their own printing press (Benjamin Franklin).

    John Murray, a printer, doing up Byron (who, by the way, required some editing — he didn't use periods and let the sentences fall where they may) started making money.

    The printer encouraged authors to publish simply for the fee received for printing. The author made money after the cost of printing was covered. Byron changed that in a big way, but stil most classic novels were printed to cost and it is suprising how many first-editions from the period were issued in four, five, and six affordable portions (volumes).

    Soon books were sold by subscription to cover the cost of printing.

    Okay, this is long and boring. Sorry. But, publishers now once again may sell directly to the readers.

    This is big news. The major publishers aren't jumping in. Their business model is still to provide books to the trade (to the chains, the bookstores, and to Kindle or Nook).

    In a way, they would be cutting off an arm… to compete directly with their established base of customers (again, their customers are bookstores, not readers). Maybe a leg.

    But, lordy, they have to be considering it. Don't they?

    I mean why discount 49% to a retailer (on commission, no less) when you can sell the product you control for half the cost of retail directly to the reader as an eBook and, again, suffering no returns if product, no warehousing and shipping costs, much smaller production costs, etc., and get the SAME AMOUNT of money?

    I think Harlequin's eBook line (NOT the self-pub line) just flew by under the radar. I think this development is Big News.

    Will Random House, Penguin, HarperCollins, etc., sell eBooks directly to readers in five or ten or fifteen years? Why not?

    All it takes is a webpage.

    Reply
  45. Claude Forthomme says

    December 4, 2009 at 11:48 am

    I'm a day late too and I imagine VERY few people will read my post…but I agree with Nathan about the ebook trend and the fact that we shouldn't bury our head under the pillow.
    And I agree with Anomynous that publishers will surely wake up to the ebook market out there and start selling directly to customers rather than go through "the trade". It won't happen right away but it is sure to happen.
    –What surprises me however is something no one seems to have remarked on: the really cool thing is not ebooks but EREADERS! I just got one yesterday: what a fabulous gadget! As far as I'm concerned, the real difference it makes is not in allowing me to access ebooks but NEWSPAPERS. This morning at breakfast I read the Herald Tribune and I wasn't dressed, I hadn't gone out to buy my copy. No, I was in bed reading today's paper: what luxury!
    I've always considered newspapers a nuisance: just a lot of dirty paper with bad-smelling ink that needs to be regularly disposed of if you want to maintain a minimum of decorum in your home…Quite the reverse from paper books that are (for the most part) lovely objects to decorate your walls…
    I'm convinced paper books are here to stay as pretty objects, even if ebooks eventually outsell them. But newspapers? Ah, the day when none will be around, except on my Kindle (or Nook or whatever)…

    Reply
  46. Anonymous says

    December 4, 2009 at 5:01 pm

    Nathan, What were the statistics from your survey over the three year spam for the
    -maybe folks?
    -the I don't know folks?

    Reply
  47. Anonymous says

    December 4, 2009 at 5:02 pm

    span not spam!

    Reply
  48. Rick Daley says

    December 4, 2009 at 5:59 pm

    Are there certain genres that are showing stronger trends in increased ebook sales?

    Any data to show differences between fiction and non-fiction?

    Reply
  49. Doralynn Kennedy says

    December 4, 2009 at 7:56 pm

    I don't know about trends, but the last I heard was that erotica is the leading seller in the e-book category.

    Reply
  50. Christine H says

    December 4, 2009 at 10:14 pm

    Dara ~ No, you are not!

    Reply
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