Hi everyone, this was originally posted yesterday in the Huffington Post, where I will be blogging from time to time. I thought I’d re-post it here.
During my meetings with editors, agents, sales assistants, marketers, and other assorted publishing types in New York this past week, there was a common theme that kept cropping up again and again:
Moving the needle.
(That’s “making an impact” for those of us not fluent in Corporatese.)
Editors want to take authors to the next level or make a splash with a debut. Publishers want to gain traction with new electronic formats. Sales and marketing teams want to make a splash. Everyone is desperate for a hit.
At the same time, along with this overwhelming drive to move the needle came an almost equally universal feeling of uneasiness: it’s harder to move the needle than ever before.
One of the big recent surprises in the industry, according to a few different people I met with, is a newfound difficulty making a splash even with adult nonfiction. Now, to get an idea of what a huge problem/challenge/earthquake this is, bear in mind that for many years adult nonfiction was the bread and butter workhorse of the industry. Fiction, except for very very established authors, has always been regarded as something of a crapshoot. Nonfiction, on the other hand, was a source of relative stability, and publishers had gotten reasonably good at guessing at the size of the market for a project, giving authors a reasonably appropriate advance, and bringing in healthy margins.
Not so much anymore. Everything is difficult to break out.
What’s happening?
Yes, book sales are down, but it’s not as if they’ve fallen off a cliff. And there are still books that are wildly, hugely successful. But why is it that certain books are taking off seemingly out of the blue where other seemingly sure bets aren’t doing so well?
One guess: the industry has gone from pushing the needle to being pushed by the needle.
Before the Internet, the publishing industry was one of a few powerful forces that helped shape the cultural zeitgeist – their choices of what to publish and what to market had a reasonably solid effect on what we consumed as a culture. Up until the Internet era, zeitgeist-shaping was much more of a top-down phenomenon. There simply wasn’t much of an alternative to the books/movies/music/TV shows that major publishers/studios/labels/networks decided you would like. Your choice in zeitgeist was prescribed and proscribed in advance. Want to read something other than what the publishing industry decided to put in the bookstore? Good luck, pardner!
Not to get all Y2K on you, but the Internet has changed all that. Now we are positively besieged by an infinite number of stories and videos and Tweets and blogs and Gosselins and quizzes competing for our atten… OMG did you see that kitten video?
And holy cow almost all of it is free. People are deciding what media they want to consume out of a bewildering array of choices, and the ground is constantly shifting.
The competition for eyeballs is fierce, and the traditional tools at publishers’ disposal aren’t as effective as they used to be: Review space has all but completely disappeared, bookstores are closing and taking with them the precious hit-making front-store real estate (which publishers pay dearly for), advertising is costly and sporadically effective, and some (but not all) publishers have been slow to adapt to the potential of the Internet and especially social networking. In other words: their ability to move the needle has flown out the digital door.
To be sure, there are publishers who are still able to consistently generate hits, whether it’s Penguin’s remarkable run of trade paperback bestsellers or Hachette’s stable of suspense writers, among others. And there are still hits happening, even if they seem to be increasingly starting modestly and then taking off through rabid word of mouth.
But if publishers feel unable to “make” a book and increasingly depend on word of mouth and the new bottom-up zeitgeist it will surely complicate a publishing business model that makes massive bets on progressively fewer books in the hopes that those books reach the “phenomenon” status that pads margins and launches careers. Will publishers continue to pay a premium for the privilege of taking an increasingly uncertain risk? Will authors be depended upon to bring their own celebrity/platform/253,078 Twitter followers to bear in order to make a hit for the publisher?
Unless the industry finds a better way to minimize their massive risk-taking or find new tools to move the needle, publishing will continue to bow before the increasingly fickle whims of the zeitgeist and the Internet hive. And the only thing worse than failing to push the needle is accidentally sitting on it.
I didn't mind pushing the envelope, but the needle? What kind of needle is this? Quilting, hypodermic, tattooing, space? Are we pushing it through muslin, skin, veins, or Seattle?
Either way it sounds slightly unpleasant.
I like that the reader has more choices now and for free. I still love going into a book store, browsing and buying my share of soft covers (not so big on hardcover books anymore — I live in a small NYC apartment). But content is more important than even access or price. I hate that every nonfiction book lately has to have the author reveal a "bombshell secret"… Andre Agassi, MacKenzie Philips… books are going the way of cable TV… too much sensation and not enough substance.
If publishers put out well-written and meaningful books — fiction or nonfiction — I will be the first to buy up.
Gotta agree with anonymous at 9:18 a.m. in re Huff Po. Are we gonna have to listen to Nathan dissing the President now, and demanding Biden's resignation?
Or dishing out celebrity gossip that won't go away?
@Dan P:
The winning formula seems to be:
YA + serial novel + good enough movie
Small press is really lulu.com these days, but there is no good approach to filter through all the books available on lulu, so we really need a digg + lulu combination. We need a way to source the good from the bad on the Internet.
Othewise, how do I know what to buy?
Here's my approach:
A movie comes out that I enjoy based on a book, a friend suggests a book to me, a book is a part of series like the Doctor Who books, a book is by an author that I have enjoyed in the past, a author like Stephen King recommends it, or the book has good placement and marketing at the front of a bookstore to convince me take chance. I have been burnt by the later.
What authors do I get burnt by the most? The mid-level ones that I haven't read in the past. Why would I risk my cash on an unproven author during a recession?
As for reviews, I really just read the ones on amazon, not the ones in newspapers like the New York Times.
I've never thought that the publishing marketplace was any different than any other business. Just like the mining business, there's pipe dreamers hoping to uncover the mother lode; meanwhile, there's a lot of pay dirt to work for a few flecks of gold dust, the bread and butter money of existence. Peculiarly though, the dozen or so biggest publishers are the ones who are counting on the mother lode to pay off. There's 90,000 other publishers out there with no such illusions.
The digital age has brought whole new marketing possibilities that large publishers can't or won't incorporate. They're selling themselves short as a consequence.
On another hand, if it's all about the benjamins to begin with, there's only benjamins at stake. The houses that are in it for the benjamins will live of die by the benjamins.
Art is and always has been about art appreciation. If an art audience is one or one billion strong, parol (word of mouth advertising) is the sole determining success factor, as it is, was, and always will be. No amount of advertising dollars will ever change that.
Nathan, Thanks for bringing us this information and your observations from the New York world of Publishing.
The Internet is affecting just about everything: the stock markets and so many industries, particularly the media. The newspapers, of course, Hollywood, but also the fashion industry.
It used to be the Big Designers told everyone what was hot. No more. The Sartorialist and others are showcasing Street Fashion. People are making their own unique choices and the Internet blogs are driving the trends. Now you see the fashion magazines and the designers following the proliferating street fashion blogs.
Change brings anxiety but also opportunity. The hard part is figuring it out, and as you and others say, assessing the risks. It could get bumpy.
The captain has turned on the fasten your seat belt light…
I would have thought the answer is
1. not to pretend you can predict or second guess a bottom-up phenomenon (your main problem in traditional publishing as far as this is concerned is lead time).
2. to widen the portfolio through a mixed package of contracts – digital only (yay Carina for finally figuring out what many outside the industry have been bashing away at for a while); zero advance; even freemium.
I consider myself the average buyer of books. I'll tell you why some books take off and others don't. The content is family friendly and people want to escape from the reality of the world today. Books do that for people. In trying times books are affordable entertainment for everyone. The hours you get out of a book far out weighs a movie.(and the acting isn't bad either) If you want a sure thing make your book appealing to Dads, Moms, kids, and grandparents. (It's just my opinion…)
The needle will fly off the charts!
I suppose tomorrow's post is about what a writer can do to avoid sitting on the needle? 🙂
I like your comment about making lots of small bets. I think that's very applicable to writers, too. Not to beat a dead horse, but there are tons of short story and non-fic markets out there to help build up resumes, thereby hopefully lessening the risk of editors taking us on for book length work.
Exactly what Chris Anderson said in "The Long Tail"… now the exciting part of the future comes: trying to find how to ride the new waves of consumer desire. Its still possible to sell to the masses, but you have to be open to seeing what they are buying and what they really want, instead of putting them into whatever slot you thought they should be in. I find it exciting…
The problem I see with the publishing business– aside from being technologically behind {and in an attempt to "catch up" they will make mistakes–(such as thinking that 285,000 Twitter followers is a sales platform)}–is that they have become like the housing industry built on "spec".
How about they stop chasing the blockbuster? Big advances are risks—so stop taking the risks. Publish the good stuff, get solid contracts that are not driven by the advance and spend less on advertising. If self publishing is going to be the competition—and it is–then think like and act like a self publisher.
Next, publishers need to believe in the power of an imprint. There is art in the imprint. An imprint can create a name and it is the name coupled with the imprint that will win the day for publishers. There is not "art" in the classic sense everywhere online. There is a plethora of content, but is without validation.
The future will depend on quality, not quantity. Perhaps publishers should be thinking about to really capitalize on their imprint, no matter what the venue. If blogs are the competition, maybe they should be thinking about to imprint certain blogs.
Art will always win the day. The future is about design and brand. Publishers should take stock in their brand and find ways to make it work for them.
…"285,000 Twitter followers is a sales platform…"
It CAN be. Depends what you do with it. Are they 285,000 targeted readers of your genre, or 285,000 random internet accounts auto-generated from a list? Does the writer have a real rapport with these "followers"? If s/he says, "chesk this out," do they listen? if the answer is "Yes," then I'd call that a sales platform.
anon-
If you didn't really read the post I don't think we really need to read your comment.
Also, on the 280,000 Twitter followers, check out the recent success of CRUSH IT! by Gary Vaynerchuk, someone who has been able to leverage his impressive social network to some impressive books sales.
Well, I guess I have to let my reactionary show a bit: day to day life is all tangled up now in complex and stressful morasses of procedure. When I am done my day's work I am drained and strung out and when I come home I want my mind my heart rate my shoulder muscles and my soul to relax. I used to read and read and read and read. Now I read when I am on vacation and the rest of the time engage in passive tv or internet pass times. I used to be a pretty steady book consumer. Now I am inconsistent. The publishers can't count on me any more. I don't have the time or energy to browse nor the money to spend for hard cover new releases. I have found reading on the internet is actually easier than getting a book. I would like to own a Kindle, maybe after my children are out of college.
Point of my diatribe? I think life has developed away from being an acute experience of joys and pains toward being a functional experience with productivity being the goal. Books are real and deep and personal, acute experiences. I, at least, need a certain serenity to explore those experiences and maybe many people are like me. We don't have the serenity to read. Except on vacation.
So to the publishing world I suggest producing enough alternative products to pay the price and then produce some good books that may reach some few people sometime. In one of your earlier blogs, Nathan, you said something about books becoming the property of few or something to that affect. I will not be one of those few, but there will be a few times when I will want books.
https://img130.yfrog.com/i/2wc.jpg/
I saw that and couldn't help but think that's what the publisher's mean when they say "next big thing". Also, did anyone else notice the dire lack of books dealing with real vampires? I mean c'mon! A whole table full of vampire books and the quintessential vampire story isn't even there. It's a sad, sad world when Bram Stoker doesn't make the vampire table.
One thing I didn't see mentioned, and of course you wouldn't mention it, is that a good many who are trying to "push the needle" don't fully comprehend the internet. It slithered up behind them and caught them off guard. And they just don't know what to do.
Someone in the comment thread already mentioned how Pres. Obama and his staff saw internet potential and went after it. And it worked.
One of the most interesting things I've seen is that traditional publishers are now buying the rights to e-books, from small e-publishers, and making deals that would never have been made five years ago. And they are doing it very quietly, too.
Aside from The Great Depression v2.0, it's an interesting time to be alive.
🙂
G.
Nathan,
Are you seeing any of the major publishers adapting their strategies? You've mentioned some of the smaller houses are adjusting but what about the big players?
WV: botox – (how appropriate) A toxin used to hide a publisher's stress lines.
The Huggington Post.
Very impressive.
Sorry. I have long nails.
I meant "Huffington"
Very interesting article and yes…..I did go watch the kitten.
Awwww…….metaphor for the publisher "breaking out of the box"
🙂
malia-
Haha.. I wouldn't mind writing for the Huggington Post. Sounds friendly!
Ah shoot. Even when I'm saying I'm not getting into battles on the internet, I get all 'fighty.'
Let's try again.
First, Nathan, I admire you. I just do. This was a really good article – very insightful and well-written. Spot on. I also love how you're successfully pursueing your dreams. Very inspiring to watch.
To make up for my recent 'fighty' words, I'll share an idea, which may or may not be a good one.
If I were a publishing company, I would immediately, as in yesterday, create a company blog. I would put my most charismatic employee(s) in charge of moderating that blog.
I would then target that blog toward READERS. I would make it an extremely fun and interactive blog, with contests that gave away free books, book reviews, interactive games with my best-sellers, and then more interactive games with mid-list.
Once I built the blog up, I'd start using the blog to conduct informal market reseach – what types of books would you like next? What are your favorites, etc. Then I would also use the blog to promote my upcoming releases.
Well, maybe a website, rather than a blog.
Okay, that's my idea.
And congrats, Nathan, on the Huffington. Also, that kitten video was the cutest thing I've ever seen in my entire life. I now need a kitten – stat!!
I believe authors needed to not only write a great book, but also be marketing genius. It's a tweet eat tweet world out there. I am trying to build my "platform" every day. It's difficult and sometimes I wonder if it's worth it. I may never be a famous blogger (like Nathan) but I try. I've heard that you need to begin marketing your book at least 2 years prior to it's release!
Authors better step up and learn to market themselves and their book. Facebook it, get linkedln, tweet your pals, and blog your book.
(sigh) I'm tired just thinking about it.
Good grief Charlie Brown … the flights of fancy to cyber space, are not as one of your comments indicate: "Change or die. Welcome to the new world. Perhaps the publishing industry just needs Steve Jobs to come in and take the reins… oh, wait, he wouldn't touch it w/ a thousand-foot long, fiber-optic laden needle."
Progress dear ones is not meant to eradicate the past, but to enlighten and enhance it. Get real. Do you expect John&Kate to replace Masterpiece Theatre also? Is the preoccupation with YA fantasy, horror/vampire or chick lit cartoons dancing in animation on author's web pages really going to deter my grandchildren from reading classic literature or somehow prevent you from discovering the next J.K.Rawling, finding the joy in Olive Kitteridge, who by the way has brought on a new trend in novels. I remember when so many lamented that short stories are dead. I don't think so. They are alive and doing very well and have come into a new dimension as part of "a novel of stories"
Progresss is not replacing literature, it might make it more accessible, through the Kindle, it may change part of publishing as you … oh my … you who are the professionals out there know it today … but it will not replace your brains.
I'm sure watching the kitten video will not rot your brains either. YouTube and have a good time, it's no more or less like Donkey Kong in the eighties. My son held the record in our local "record" shop. Oh, do you remember those black round thinks with a hole in the middle? It hasn't prevented him from reading three or four books a week.
I love reading agent and publishing blogs. It gives me some insight as to what is happening in a world where I am yet a player.
I do not, as a result of having a little fun with these amazing electronic wonders, neglect to write. I'll continue reading these blogs, though I have until tonight refained from a comment.
I had to stop reading after number 20 of the comments.
So those of you who are on the agenting, publishing end of this "business" have faith. The cream always rises to the top, and people like water, always seek their own level.
Keep moving the needle and you will eventually make beautiful music.
mira-
I agree that too many publisher blogs are too focused on publicizing events and releases and talking at readers instead of interacting with them. I think they could learn a lot from what you're saying.
I agree with your thoughts Nathan, so here's my question- how do emerging writers find our way in the midst of all this craziness? This isn't our grandmother's publishing world anymore and we've all been brought up on that paradigm.
dawn-
I think all that authors can do is to write the best book they can, find a great advocate for their work, and do whatever publicity they're able to do when the book comes out. Everything else is up to fate.
Nathan – thanks!
Well, you've inspired me to say more. 🙂
Something I've learned from frequenting blogs: if done well, they create a highly loyal community.
Direct reader participation would help readers feel invested in the publisher's books, and if they met authors on the blog, a fan base for authors as well. This would be a step up in terms of marketing, outreach, brand loyalty – but most important – feedback. What do readers really think and want? What type of books will they buy?
And all of this could be done for a very low cost.
The trick is the person(s) who run the blog. That's the key. You need someone charismatic, decisive and fair. Shame you're probably not available, Nathan. 🙂
Oh, now I'm talking too much. I'll just say this, and then stop.
Amazon creates brand loyalty. It does this through wish lists, recommendations (I could mess with mine for hours), listmania, author's bios and blogs, discussions, reviews.
Just an example of a company doing it really well.
Dude, I had to watch that kitten video five times!
Now I watched the kitten video and I want a kitten again because two teenagers, one cat, one female dog and a puppy who dug a hole in the carpet last week isn't enough.
Why are the publishers paying such big $$$ for new authors.
Is it that the author is greedy or are the publishers hoping to knock out the competition.
Look at Stephenie Meyer. Now I don't know if she was a well known author before Twilight (from what I can see Twilight was her debut). And she was offered $750,000.00 for a three book deal (based on her submission of only one book). She still had to deliver the other two.
Then she was paid yet another $450,000.00 for the forth (which by then was a fair gamble).
I think that some publisher should come up with an option that helps authors like me. I don't need an advance. I just want my book published. But, agents make their money from advances, so they won't touch this idea. I think the idea of advances should be reexamined, at least to some degree. How about a publisher that pays no advance, but pays a portion of whatever the author makes from the book to the agent?
Yes, the intent and expectations of a few has been the norm for too long.
The times, they are a changing. I do not relish the roles agents and editors play as advocates of what the public masses deserve.
Keep up the good work! STORY is always the first answer… good writing can be fixed.
"How about a publisher that pays no advance, but pays a portion of whatever the author makes from the book to the agent?"
Knight,
There are small publishers who do this.
sounds like too much management with too much time on it's hands trying to read too many crystal ball and frightened to fly into the future with it's eyes wide open and zipper undone
You're doing newspaper columns now? 0.0
Re the kitteh vid, I've noticed that YouTube videos featuring kittens or cats have more hits than any other kind.
I've decided to self-publish.
Excellent post, and you've definitely nailed it. I happen to enjoy social networking–Facebook, MySpace, blogging. I don't use Twitter–too time consuming–but I firmly believe that the time I invest in my readers online pays me back tenfold. I've seen sales on my ongoing series continue to do well since the first book released in 2006. Now, four years and sixteen trade paperbacks later, I'm eagerly awaiting the release of #17 next month–and already blogging and Fb'ing about it. I use those sites to build up a buzz because as susiej says, word of mouth sells books. The more mouths spreading the word, the better.
I read Jen Jackson's blog as well and occasionally I hop over to the Maas website to see what's up.
They have a section called 'What we're looking for this month'. Great idea for prospective submitters. (OMG that's a word???)
Anyway, makes me wonder why every major PUBLISHER doesn't have a 'What YOU'RE looking for this month' blog/forum/whatever.
I oversimplify, but it too often seems like the industry does market research by counting harry potter and twilight sales and deciding that means we need 500 clones of each to satisfy the masses.
Mira, you're spot on. I just read the most intriguing blog from a website hosting company, though of course I've now lost the link. It was on CNN.
Yawn, right? Or it could be, but it's just FUN. Pix of employees at their halloween party. Contests. Ideas. Lots of interaction.
I'll keep saying it over and over: Conversation is the new genre.
Blogs, online books, and all the media available now is going to change what many books look like. Blogs are a great start for that.
Thanks SS@S.
"Conversation is the new genre." Nicely said. 🙂
Nathan, if your bosses wouldn't mind, you might consider offering consultation services to publishers. Help them start up (and more importantly, learn to RUN) a blog, linked to their website.
Thank you for the succinct guidance in your reply to Dawn Maria's comment. I found it inspiring.
Reading this morning's posts, I'll check in as another Mira admirer (easier written than said). I think you've got the seed of the right idea.
It might be much more productive for a publisher to drop a staid blockbuster bet and invest those funds in a well run blog that gins interest in many more niche authors and subjects. Variety! The blog could also search for interest and trends from those following the blog– much the way Nathan does for his followers here.
I agree–Amazon very user-friendly and lots there for book-oriented people. Sites like Library Thing are also good–you can sign up to become a reviewer and if you're lucky, you'll receive an ARC of a soon-to-be released book. It's a very popular feature. I also participated in a 100-bloggers green book event for Eco-Libris, where we all released our reviews of newly published green books on the same day at the same time. There are ways to get "smaller" books noticed.
And the only thing worse than failing to push the needle is accidentally sitting on it.
AHAHAHAH! That and the kitten video.
🙂
Here's an amazing story: a 28-year-old guy who got a book deal AND a TV deal based solely on his Twitter tweets: here.
what's a "green book"? Is it a book with environmental themes or any book that was produced in an environmentally sensitive manner?