It was the best of weeks, it was the worst of weeks……. and no one knew which.
This was, quite simply, a massively huge week in the publishing industry. All of the various pressures on the industry seemingly came to a head: the steady rise of e-books, downward pressure on book prices (due to bad economy/presence of e-books/competition with free content/used books/inevitability), the rising clout of e-tailers, an increasingly difficult landscape for independent bookstores, and the industry’s creeping dependence on a small handful of mega-bestselling authors.
First, several new e-readers are giving the Kindle a run for its money in both its functionality… and its bizarre name. Meet the Alex (yes, THE ALEX), the Que (yes, THE QUE) and the Nook (yes, THE okay that one doesn’t bother me so much). Also: I call dibs on ¿Qué? jokes for the next five years.
The Nook is perhaps the most notable of all as it is backed by Barnes & Noble, features wireless that you can use in a physical B&N to read/preview basically anything, and also allows you to “share” a book with a friend for 14 days, during which you can’t actually read it. Kind of like a real book.
It remains to be seen how popular all of these devices will be, but certainly e-book adoption is moving ever closer to the mainstream.
Meanwhile, WalMart dropped a megaton bomb more faster than you blink and sparked a ruthless price war with Amazon by announcing that they would sell 10 hotly anticipated titles for $9.99 through WalMart.com. Amazon quickly matched and announced same-day delivery in 7 cities, then WalMart countered by lowering the price to $8.99, which Amazon also matched. Then Target jumped in the fray, and so did Sears, who announced that if you by a $9 book from Amazon, Target or WalMart they will reimburse the entire amount if you buy something on Sears.com and spend $45. So, basically, you can get a free book when you buy your dog a pirate costume (come on, you know you want to click through to see that one).
Where does this end?
Where indeed.
Right now, even as WalMart, Amazon, Target and Sears fight it out for e-tailing primacy, publishers are still receiving the standard amount for every copy sold, or roughly 50% of the hardcover list price, meaning WalAmaTargEars are the ones taking a loss. So, assuming the deep discounts spur sales, in the short term this has turned into a huge cash cow for the few publishers/mega-bestsellers WalAmaTargEars have chosen.
But who loses? Well… potentially just about everyone else. In the words of literary agent David Gernert:
If readers come to believe that the value of a new book is $10, publishing as we know it is over. If you can buy Stephen King’s new novel or John Grisham’s ‘Ford County’ for $10, why would you buy a brilliant first novel for $25? I think we underestimate the effect to which extremely discounted best sellers take the consumer’s attention away from emerging writers.
And as Eric at Pimp My Novel notes, this could have huge impacts on independent bookstores, who simply can’t compete with the discounting. He also notes that if a few e-tailers cement their dominance over the bookselling market, they could have increasing clout to dictate terms and discounts.
There are some who are cautiously optimistic about the price war. An anonymous publishing executive told the Times: “If this is a short-term statement to let hundreds of millions of people know that they will be able to buy books from Walmart.com, it’s a good thing.”
But surely this isn’t temporary. These trends have been in the makings for years, from deep discounts (now something everyone takes for granted) to competition with other cheap media to the rise of e-books to the industry’s shedding of mid-list authors, their simultaneous aversion to small risks and dependence on big risks, and their increasing reliance on bestsellers, who they often overpay.
This doesn’t have to mean the end of publishing as we know it. As former editor Marion Maneker writes, this could spur publishers to reevaluate their deals with their top sellers, and he also notes that people are already accustomed to paying more for different products. Just because James Patterson’s latest is selling for $10 doesn’t mean someone won’t pay more for a book by someone who sells less.
But it looks as if book prices are coming down, one way or another. And that shift is going to send major shockwaves through the industry. Already Stephen King, an early e-book champion, announced that S&S will be delaying the release of the e-book edition of his new book, citing a desire to help bookstores, while simultaneously expressing concern that the deep print discounting “threatens the industry’s pricing structure.”
So is it the best of times or the worst of times? It’s too soon to know. Lower prices don’t have to be a bad thing provided people buy more books. Smaller authors don’t have to lose out provided consumers don’t flock en masse to the deeply discounted bestsellers.
But things are changing very, very quickly. The longtime trends that have been shaping the industry are only accelerating, and everyone in the business is holding on for the ride.
Thanks for this viewpoint. All the recent activity has been mind-numbing to say the least.
Look on the bright side. With incredible TV shows, wondrous video games and 60 inch LCD LEDs, what more comfortable point in history has there been to give up on your dreams?
Hard to tell what's happening. My hope is that more affordable books means people will buy two instead of one, which in turn will mean they'll burn through the big names and start looking for more arcane fair. If you push your book hard enough with a website and an intelligent use of media, you just might be the "indie band" of the season.
Would I pay more for an exciting, new talent? Something tells me I would, as long as the costs for the other stuff were down.
Well…hopefully by the time I'm ready to query my book, things will settle down a bit…
Times are certainly changing!
I don't know if it is the worst of times, best of times, or just plain old changing. JA Konrath displayed his e-book royalty statements (rights held through a publishing house vs. rights he owned) on his blog and it was a wee bit mind blowing.
The world is changing. It's exciting and frightening all at the same time.
Jean
Please fasten your safety belts, don your crash helmets, and keep your hands and feet inside the vehicle.
Enjoy the ride!
The Nook looks very promising. This week has definitely been a game-changer in many ways, and I think that your worries about nobody wanting to spend $25 on first-time authors is well-founded. I think what you will see (hopefully) is fewer first-time authors have hardcover releases. Instead you will have a straight-to-paperback release which could spur on more sales as long as the books sold well. I still think there should be a "New Authors" section at the major bookstores where they only hold a few copies of books and they can use it as a litmus to see how they do.
Similarly, a question was asked today by @Weegee which asked "Publishers: Please solve this problem. Wand [sic] to read new hardcover. Can't afford. Library waiting list 300 long. Answer?"
I think the answer will change the future of publishing as well. The idea of "rented" books is something that can be done with much more ease now than it ever could before. Microtransactions are getting bigger in the U.S. and being able to "rent" a book for a number of days might encourage people to read newer authors.
Just an idea.
-Ken
The whole “lost leader” concept by the big boxes is designed specifically to put every competitor out of business. As a new writer who’s agent just went on submission to editors this week, I find that more than a little frightening.
It’s going to be a huge hit to publishing in general and the reading public as a whole if the big boxes succeed. As a reader, your only options for buying books will be Amazon, et al, and your choices will be severely limited.
As a new writer…well, let’s just say the future’s not looking so bright if your name’s not Stephen King or Stephenie Meyer. (Am I allowed to use them in the same sentence?) Publishers will shy away from new talent because, if the boxes won’t buy it, they can’t sell it. There won’t be anyone else to sell it to.
So, enjoy your cheap books while you can because, as soon as they’ve put all the little to medium sized guys out of business, they’ll jack their prices right back up. As a consumer, please don’t shoot yourself in the foot!
Okay, okay, okay. I remember in the late 80's/early 90's when POD was going to CHANGE PUBLISHING AS WE KNOW IT. End of bookstores, end of publishers, end of the midlist, etc. People were freaking out!! Some were throwing up their hands and quitting the whole business. Some were seeing how POD could benefit them. Most were just watching and worrying.
I know that the technology is different, but still…. I'm not freaking out. Heck, my agent still thinks he can get me a hardcover deal for my first novel. Bless his heart.
As an author hoping to publish his 6th book, the one I think will finally take me to notoriety, Walmart and company slashing for already best selling authors is problematic to my book ever being read. This is a career I intend to pursue full on, and this kind of ignorance by chains for lack of a better term is disheartening. Yes, the Ma and Pa bookstore is in trouble too, and the authors you don't know yet like me. Certainly many authors are known by word of mouth more than advertising (save perhaps Rowling and Brown) but how do the little guys/gals like me get a break? My current project (in editorial hands right now) is in my reviewers opinion THE NEXT NOTEBOOK. How will anyone know if it goes for $12.95 when Walmart is selling Dan Brown for $8.99 for an example? I'm using a psuedonym for the obvious reasons of genre and a namesake primarily. If I win an award, then I may make waves, so look out Walmart, I'm not going down without a fight. I've also won every legal battle I've faced.
I still believe that too many people prefer books printed on paper for the Brick and Mortor stores to go under. (Then again, I said that about CD's)The bargin hunters that buy celeb bio's as gifts for the holidays might be good for the industry, but real readers will hunt out great stories by the emerging writers no matter what.
There will always be a need for good writers.
So, we have a weapons race against the rest of the entertainment industry, and a race to the bottom to sell books.
It's not a good time to have a dull pencil.
Unfortunately the same thing has happened to the music and movie industry, which haven't figured out a way to make up for loss of display space for music, DVDS, and discounts and exclusives with Wal-mart only can just as easily backfire even for A-list artists. The movie studios are a bit more pro-active inventing high quality like Blu-ray and the impending Disney operation Keychest.
Even if quality of the books is less at Wal-mart, consumers are going to look at their bottom lines. Can they get the latest novels for less? Does that let them feel better about spending in this economy where job security is a myth? Yes, it's not going to trouble them to loss the glossy covers for a lesser price.
As much as I've made a living off growing digital entertainment, the Internet has streamlined creativity to being less of a premium. Power to the people. They still need someone to direct them towards great content.
In NYC I have only seen two Kindles in the subway, the second of which was two days ago (several on planes, where you are less likely to get mugged for it.) If anything manufacturers are more interested in selling devices which fetch high prices, even when discounted like the iPhone at $99. Books are large, they take up a lot of space.
Personally I'm not as ready to give up on the physical side of books as I have with music (although not completely, I still love vinyl.)
On the upside, as Scott hopes…. consumership on the music side is up. It's just people don't pay for it. I started to read Chris Anderson's "Free" for Free on Google books and lost interest after a few chapters reading it that way. I'd rather hit up the library and have the sensation of flipping pages when I lie in the sand.
Thanks, Nathan, for distilling this week's craziness into a single, sane post. I've got a big knot in my stomach after reading, but what can we do? I'll continue to write because I have to and I'll continue to buy books and support local bookstores–because I love them, not because I want them to exist long enough for me to sell my books.
For now I think that's all I can do.
Seems like a good time to bring this up:
http://www.penny-arcade.com/comic/2009/3/9/
I've got the criss-cross, send-me-screaming-upside-down-in-loop-the-loop-terror straps buckled and I'm ready for the ride. Okay…I make no guarantees that I won't wet myself or puke before it's all over, but I'm hoping for the best in all this.
I'll refrain from repeating the petulant little doomsday track running through my brain because I'm just too damn optimistic… Really, I am…
What a week. I have to believe that those of us who love books will find a way to keep things going. After all, if we can dream up new worlds, plots and people, we can certainly figure a way out of all of this.
My first very small step will be to stop shopping at these stores.
All I can think is this what's happened to music over the last ten years.
What it means for writers is still unknown. But musicians and singers still trade their wares, albeit in somewhat different forms than pre-web days. While authors don't have the luxury of concert tours from which to make some cash, a BOOK is still a BOOK, and maybe that format will outlast vinyl, cassettes, 8-tracks, CD's, etc.
We will see…