One of the theories I’ve seen espoused about recessions is that they are really about a massive reordering of the economy. Lingering inefficiencies suddenly become glaring and are trimmed, weak companies fail, the work force reorders itself, and the strong companies either extend their dominance or retrench. The economy reemerges more efficient and ready for more growth.
The publishing industry has had to weather this storm along with the rest of the economy, and while the industry endured its share of tumult and layoffs, contrary to popular belief it is actually holding up reasonably well, especially when compared to the retail sector as a whole. Sales were off 2.5% for the year as of July, compared to a 9.5% drop in broader retail.
But even along with all of the economic pressures, the industry right now is facing a looming restructuring as e-books become more and more a part of the landscape. And as e-books become more and more common publishers will increasingly see their raison d’etre challenged by digital and self-publishing.
For the last hundred years the publishing industry has been built around one key advantage that no one else could match: distribution. Sure, publishers designed the cover and edited the pages and marketed the books. But the real secret to the dominance of the mainstream publishers, as anyone who self-published knows, was utilizing both their brand and their nuts and bolts distribution to get the books into the stores. Without traditional publishers: good luck. Publishers were the sole gatekeepers.
That’s all beginning to change with the Internet and online booksellers, and will change even more if/when e-books become the primary source of book revenue for an author.
Right now, with e-books hovering somewhere around 5% of sales, authors still need publishers. Even the self-publishing success stories almost always involve self-published authors finding their way to traditional publishers. Why? Someone’s got to get the books into the stores, and publishers are the best at it.
But what about in the future if e-books become 50% or more of an author’s sales?
You don’t need infrastructure to distribute e-books: you just need an Internet connection. An unknown, unpublished Author of the Future could do deals with the Amazons and B&Ns and Sonys of the world (or possible a single e-book distributor) and simply upload their book from Wasilla and voila, the book will be instantaneously available just as readily as the new book by Dan Brown of the Future. No warehouses, no catalogs, no print runs. Online vendors, as we’ve seen, will sell anything.
So, in this scenario, does the Author of the Future, especially one with a built-in audience, really need a publisher?
Well… yes. Maybe.
That’s because there are a whole lot of tasks that Author of the Future may not care to deal with, such as editing and copyediting, designing the cover, dealing with all of the zillions of different e-book vendors and their preferred file types, and, of course, marketing. Surely there will also be Co-op of the Future to reckon with – front page placement on an e-book store, for instance.
But most importantly, for the first time basically ever, Author of the Future is going to have a choice: work with a publisher, who takes care of a lot of the dirty work, or tackle the dirty work themselves, possibly with the help of ahem an agent who can help negotiate the e-distribution deals and work on selling the author’s subrights and help the author find freelancers to handle aspects they can’t tackle on their own.
If e-books-as-majority come to pass, the road to publication will be open like never before, and there will be a very crowded highway bypassing the publishers.
I really don’t think publishers are going to disappear entirely. The package of services and expertise they offer are unmatched (when things are running as they should), and it would be extremely difficult for Authors of the Future to navigate all of the complexities of making a bestselling book of the future by themselves. There’s a lot more to making a successful book than typing it out, hitting upload, and e-mailing your friends that your book’s on Amazon.
But publishers would have to be extremely author-friendly — they would be providing a service, not relying on their traditional role as gatekeepers and distributors. They’ll have to win over authors facing a choice between going with a publisher vs. handling matters on their own. Publishers won’t be able to rely, as they have traditionally, on the fact that authors need them in order to reach their audience, just as authors won’t be able to rely on publishers losing money on most of the books they publish.
This is why I think the relationship between author and publisher is going to increasingly be more of partnership.
I think it’s telling that some of the New Experimenters in the publishing industry, Twelve, HarperStudio and Vanguard, all treat the publishing experience as a partnership. Twelve cultivates the relationship between author and publisher and is able to do so by only publishing a book a month, HarperStudio limits advances but shares back-end revenue, and Vanguard asks the author to forego an advance in favor of transparency in marketing and higher royalties.
If e-books ever take over, the old system of authors and publishers squeezing every possible percentage point out of each other will give way for a system of shared responsibility and transparency. If the author doesn’t like the deal they’re getting they won’t be S.O.L. They can find another one. Or they can do it themselves.
But then there’s one more big looming question about publisher-as-service-provider: is there any profit in this?
I think so. My guess is that there will be a spectrum of choices available to authors, everything from no advance/handle everything themselves situation, where the author makes more profits on the backend, to the advance/traditional publisher scenario, where the author receives less on the backend.
But there are looming challenges with e-books, and lots of people are nervous about the $9.99 price point, and rightly so. Amazon is currently taking a loss on many of their sales in order to boost Kindle sales and market share. But some of these price point pressures, I think, will be sorted out by volume as e-book sales rise. Kassia Krozser blogged yesterday about how difficult it is right now for an e-publisher to turn any profit without significant scale.
My guess is that we’ll continue to see the mainstream publishing industry focus on the bestselling titles, and there will be a new crop of e-publishing services available for the rest. Some titles will rise up from the morass of author-published works and receive attention from the mainstream publishers, and some big authors will choose to take on the responsibilities of publishing themselves and bypass the publishers.
All of this assumes that e-books become dominant, and to be sure, that’s a big “if.” But things will definitely be changing.
@Mick Rooney
"what places authors at the forefront of publishing itself"
That's not how it panned out in Hollywood. Of course, filmmaking is a much more complex and necessarily collaborative process than book publishing.
Let's hope we the writers fare better here!
Moonrat had a great post about what we should and shouldn't be worried about vis a vis this publishing 'crisis' (there's some quotation marks for you, Nathan!) A question looming in my mind regarding the possibility of e-books and the disappearance of the printed text is about class and access. How many readers can afford a Kindle? Libraries provide open access and reading programs to many underprivileged communities and it seems to me that e-books are still very limited in terms of accessibility. Who really consumes e-books and how can they revolutionize the way books are made without being truly accessible – which I'm not convinced they are?
@AndrewDugas
"That's not how it panned out in Hollywood. Of course, filmmaking is a much more complex and necessarily collaborative process than book publishing.
Let's hope we the writers fare better here!"
Indeed, I agree, but the writer chooses to become author or screenwriter, or both.
Oh man. Co-op of the Future.
My tummy hurts.
@Eric
I'm just on my way to the pharmacy,
You want anything?
The e-market is going to grow, I have no doubt. Technology will see to that as the things we read on become more efficient, multi-purpose, easier to use devices. In my opinion, publishers and folks like Amazon, B/N will still end up controlling that market. They have the resources for it. Authors don't.
All availability aside, even if all aspects of publishing are available to authors, it still has to be paid for. Most don't have the funds to appropriately outsource these things. And most don't have the where-with-all or expertise to become proficient in doing all of this themselves. Sure, we'll always here of the success stories of those who accomplished publication and made money at it all on their own, but we won't hear about the other 99% who floundered and went nowhere. Publishers and agents are in no real danger of losing their position in the industry.
As for the whole gatekeeper effect, I think that as ebooks proliferate more and more, readers will naturally gravitate to places where they can be assured of quality content both in story and in format. People will get tired of wading through stuff that really isn't publishable (I think this may be happening to some degree already). Who is going to create the venues for this? The folks with resources and money. Co-op's and other smaller ventures will come and go, and a few will likely succeed in niche markets, but I believe it will still be the big players who gain control over it.
So, while the changes will certainly make it possible for writers to put their stories out there for the world to see, I honestly don't see it particularly changing the chances for success. It's not like the number of readers is going to grow at the same rate people are able to put books out there to read. People will still want to read quality stories, and they will go where they can most readily and easily find them, and your average writer out there on their own will still find the same roadblocks to work around. All pessimism aside, even the chances are still and will be very slim for the vast majority of writers, the greater number of avenues will be a good thing.
The other value I see publishers bringing is as a filter for readers. With authors going direct to readers- there will be zillions of books for a reader to choose from. The publisher's mark will be like an "Oprah" pick type sticker. Readers will know if they pick a Simon Pulse book they'll have a sense of what to expect. I predict publishers will be even more "brand" related.
Very interesting post today. I think the real turning point will be when an emerging writer like myself chooses an e-publisher over a traditional one because they really believe it will be the better choice. For today, I think anyone of us here would still rather go with a traditional publisher.
I'm intrigued by the new compensation models though, that's the area of development I'm watching closely- though I still have to stand by the wisdom of Max Bialaystock's line from "The Producers"- Never put your own money in the show!
@Mick Rooney:
"Amazon's successful marketing of Kindle isn't necessarily vox populi, and I don't see that it's doing the publishing world a favor."
I dare say if the Kindle was doing the traditional publishing world a favor, or at the very least doing it no harm, we wouldn't be having this discussion.
I think the question we need to be asking is, "Is the e-reader doing the reader of books a service?"
If the answer is yes, then it doesn't serve us well to sit and wonder what is going to become of the old world of bound books. It is instead up to us to figure out how to keep getting quality work in to the hands of the highest volume of readers.
Great quote, Dawn Maria!
Perhaps we should all be asking, "What will Authors Of The Future need?"
As of now, the only major e-distributor site that allows self-pubs is Amazon/Kindle.
Amazon, however, has a system that won't allow some small publishers and self-publishers to have their paper books available on Amazon.
Will the distributors continue to block access to a majority of buyers as ebooks become more popular?
History says yes. That's what has happened in the book industry.
In other words, that brave new world of an equal playing field will never exist as long as buyers continue to prefer one-stop shopping and known brands.
@ Paul
"Perhaps we should all be asking, 'What will Authors Of The Future need?'"
Now, finally we have someone who has the balls to ask the real question about this debate.
I'll qualify id by saying – authors of the future are our readers today.
"As of now, the only major e-distributor site that allows self-pubs is Amazon/Kindle."
That's already changed drastically. Even Barnes and Noble owned eBook sellers now allow indie books. The big stores are seeing profit possibilities.
I believe that for the next decade or so there will be a wide variety of business models that will range from today's traditional model
of author->agent->publisher->public
to author->publisher->public
to author->public.
Within the next two decades independant authors will pay for services (e.g. cover design, marketing, distribution, editing,etc.) as they need them while author conglomerates, such as James Patterson, Inc. , will employ these skills in-house.
As the distribution channel flattens, and the specialized services disperse away from publishers and become more acceptable and available, that's when we may see authors either become employed by an "Author's house" or create their own "house".
I believe there will be in-house agents like large corporations have in-house lawyers today. Agents will be subcontraced or on staff to project manage the development and distribution process.
@Randolph
"As of now, the only major e-distributor site that allows self-pubs is Amazon/Kindle."
Again, this is a misnomer. Amazon is not a distribution outlet, though that is there pretension. They are first and foremost an on line RETAILER. They do not have a sales force selling directly to bookstores and bookstores do not buy books from Amazon. At best, regarding self-publishing, they are simply facilitating a growing market in digitalized goods and are reciprocating to it.
You may as well say Smashwords are an e-distributor or any on line service who facilitates ebooks or electronic listing of books.
I was thinking about this a few months ago (by which I mean I wrote a blog post).
Even without distribution, publishers provide one additional service that new authors cannot get on their own: credibility. Publishers assure the reader that a bunch of people — who make a living out of reading books and who know what's Good — have read this book and decided it's Good.*
It's possible that even credibility will be outsourced one day, at which point Big Publishing may simply be the One Stop Shop to Outsource All Your Publishing Needs.
* I know not everything that gets published is Good, but percentage-wise it's better than what's self-published, and people know that.
Another point is the accessibility of the e-readers. Can you imagine a toddler turning "pages?" Or kids (and adults) without the couple hundred to purchase a reader? Public libraries?
E-books will never be appropriate for everyone, and authors and publishers will provide for their readers or leave vast segments underserved if they stop publishing nondigitized works. Not too great for agents, either.
What I'm seeing here is folks jumbling together a whole lot of related, but different, concepts; there are e-books, small/indie press, POD (which even the big boys do for order fulfillment), and self-pubbing. It all comes down to the distribution channels and ensuring quality product, regardless of producer or delivery format.
Yes, I can see publishers (and some big name authors) lending their name to a brand (look at Harlequin–pick a line and you know exactly what flavor you're getting). And if you really think editors these days actually edit, you have only to pick up Dan Brown's latest ten-ton gorilla (56 pages in and I'm screaming for my red pen!)
I like the concept of brick and morter stores that goes like this: the shelves are full of "sample" products (any author can print a hardback for a few bucks at Lulu or Createspace; it's not brain surgery). There are sections of "recommended", put out by traditional publishers, "branded" authors, or a new breed of "Select and Respected Readerswho know Sh!t from Shinola". You step up to the counter and order a "Nathan Bransford Mondo Hit Megabook and a carmel macchiato to go please." The server says "Would you like that as an e-book or POD,paperback or hardback, and is that a fat or skinny macchiato?" You say "I'll have that as an e-book–here's my latest-i-thingy-device, please download it there and I'll have full fat with extra caramel." Presto bango, your reading material is ready at the same time as your caffeine-sugar buzz goodie.
Who got those samples in the store? Publishers of every stripe, agents-cum-publishers (especially those with the uber-cool CB brand), indie/small presses, e-publishers, and authors who took the time to chat up the manager.
Best of all, no more returns and their evil cousin, the Ponzi scheme known as "reserves against returns". No inventories, warehouses, lots of cool greenie attributes the store can advertise, and a more accurate tally of what actually sells.
Dreamin'? Yeah, I've been accused of worse.
Adam Heine,
I read your posting: Spectator's View of Publishing's Future. It was very interesting.
I agree with everything you said about publishing in regards to the changes today. However, taking a longer look into the future, I believe that the authors with the right team of professionals, who have the right connections, will in effect brand their work.
Of course, this is very similar to what we have today, except authors will be CEOs or independent entrepreneurs and the credibility will come from the author’s name (and team) rather than from the publishers (distributors).
I do not think this will happen overnight, but there are and will be bestselling, industry-driving authors that will take advantage of publishing’s collapsing distribution model and keep more control and profits in house.
I will make this short, but I have decided to self-publish with a twist. I am launching my own promotions company. First, to handle my own books, then expanding in 2011 to take on other new authors.
The twist is in distribution. I have a professional editor to handle copy, a graphic designer to handle covers (the cover for my first novel is out of this world), and I have a marketing agent to handle promotions. Everyone gets a cut of the author's royalties (which are higher through a self-publisher), so it behooves them to get the book sold.
Will it work? Maybe. Will this route be more fun than sitting around waiting for some major publisher to take a chance on me? Absolutely.
There is a new world of possibilities out there for writers. Those of us who creatively step into the future have a chance of making it without traditional publishers.
Authors will still need agents and publishers, but first we will test the markets ourselves by self publishing. Then we'll show you guys the numbers and reviews. Then you'll take us on if we've met your magic numbers (with modest advances) and we'll all make money the old fashioned way–by earning it based on actual sales. Exciting!
Nathan,
I didn't mean you. I meant the inevitable comments about the death of publishing that always come with the debate.
Thanks, AM. I think you're right, too — in the long term, it may be far more about the authors than who the authors are with.
The question remains though, how will an unknown break into that business? Someone needs to sift through the unknowns and say, "Hey, I found a good one!" It might be publishers, agents, a committee of established authors, who knows?
If all else fails it will be the consumers who have to sift, but I don't think it will come to that. There's money to be made in the sifting, after all.
Steve,
Sign me up.
I'll follow your site to learn how you plan to interview potential partners, and set the buy-in fees(my portion of the initial operational and overhead costs), and if we both agree that we can partner, I'll be ready to sign.
Ah-hem, to enhance my resume, I am a degreed accountant with ten years of information technology and project management experience. I'll even help develop the business’ start-up plan (for investors, partners, banks, etc.). I’ve reviewed you site and I think our genre and writing interests will be compatible.
Heck, if you decide I can't write to your partnering standards, I certainly can manage and offer skills you have not already listed. And like Nathan, I've proven my love of the craft – plus I can afford the buy-in. 😉 – which is a nice side affect of us writers who have lucrative day-jobs (or careers).
Who knows, with one mega-bestseller, we could collapse my ten to twenty year projection into the here and now.
Seriously, if you are serious, I will be following your site.
What seems to be missing from your analysis is marketing and publicity. Once upon a time publishers did it, but now they primarily do it with bestsellers. If things shift to e-publishing, that can be a very strong negotiating point for an author (aside from a cash advance, I suppose). "Okay, sure, I'll stay with you guys if you put X number of dollars into print ads, get me a shot on Today, and send me on a 10-city book tour scrawling my signature on the back of everybody's Kindle."
Part of the new experimenters like Vanguard et al., has at least been partly the concept that they'll treat the books special and as you say, "be transparent" in marketing, or at least, let the author know what's really done. Like: not only we going to say on the galley that you have a 10-city book tour and a $100,000 print campaign, but we're actually going to SEND you on a 10-city book tour and spend $100,000 on the print campaign.
Nathan, this is why I think you're amazing. That you'd write a post this topic!
Good for you.
In terms of my contribution to this thread, I can't address the business end of things. Business is not my forte.
But sociological phenomenon – that I can talk about.
My main concern is how downtrodden the author is now. Authors buy into the idea that they are a dime-a-dozen and should be grateful to be given any notice at all. They accept a pitiful percentage of sales and basically do what they are told, don't speak up, or face informal industry blacklisting.
Unfortunately, many of the industry blogs, for the most part (not yours, Nathan, of course), are accentuating rather than diminishing that process by speading fear and yearning. That's just my opinion, of course.
That maybe an unconscious psychological tactic on the part of the industy. I don't believe it's deliberate. But if the industry can keep the author more "oppressed", then in the transtion to e-books, the author will not grab their power.
That is my main concern. That the people who are very good at money and power will continue to be good at it. And authors, who perpetually doubt themselves, will hand their power over to them on a silver platter.
No matter what system is devised, there is a great possiblity that the devaluation of the author will continue.
I do NOT want that to happen. Partnership is wonderful. It would benefit all involved if the author had more power (something I don't believe the industry realizes).
I feverently hope that authors take their opportunity when it is presented to them.
Adam!
What a nice site you have! I've just looked at this week's posting. You even use flow charts for event processing! Are you or where you once a developer, business analyst, etc?
You and your wife are obviously wonderful people and are to be commended!
Three things regarding the need for publishers:
1. Validation for the consumer. An implied stamp of approval. Publishing houses are not the only places to get this, but right now they are the most recognized. This will not always be true.
2. The cost of eBooks and eReaders will not remain static. Forecasting the future based on the current cost of these items is a mistake since like all technology, they will become more affordable. Furthermore, a dedicated eReader isn't actually necessary. eBooks are readable on computers and smartphones. Sure, not everyone has one of these, but most people do have access to a computer now. Certainly most people who buy books. (No implied slur here, just acknowledgement of reality.)
3. In the current model, the publishing house offers a package of services (in theory). Editing, copy editing, design, cover art. One stop shop.
All the jobs/people currently working at a publishing house will still have jobs after the coming market shake-up. They just not be with the same employer. They may be free lance or under distinct companies for each. Traditional publishers will remain and will be the holy grail for an author since only the most commercially viable books will be supported by them. They won't, however, have a stranglehold on the market anymore.
A couple of people mentioned branding. This would fill the "validation" need (ie: Robert Parker of the wine world but for books) for the consumer. Self-pub will be around and continue to produce a few gems but most consumers will go for the "Great Books Literary Agency/Publishing House/ePub" stamp of approval.
Smaller ePubs have grown so much in the last couple of years. That is the market to watch.
Still, aspiring authors should recognize that no matter what the future brings there will be a judgement of the work somewhere in the process. The biggest moneymakers will be the ones who have escalated the hurdles and are supported by whatever corporate structure is in place.
Wow, AM. That's very kind, thank you twice 🙂
I was once a software engineer for a large corporation. Very Office Space, but I learned lots about schedules, tasking, business processes, etc. That, and I'm analytical to the point of neurosis.
Thanks everyone for the great comments. I'm a little surprised that so many people feel that publication by a major publisher is a mark of validation from the consumer's standpoint.
But do people really check the spine before they buy a book? Do people know the difference between imprints?
I agree that this could be a way of building a brand, but I haven't seen much evidence that consumers notice or care much.
To me the mark of validation as a beginning author is non-self publication. After that, I would define success solely by sales (and if i had the chutzpah to self-publish and self-market and do well, then publication by a house tiny or tall probably wouldn't matter either, though it'd be nice)
wv: thesisms — thesis phrase that make no sense to anybody but the writer and his/her advisors (e.g., if a resonant mode is attained during non-linear sliding mode control, bifurcation could result.)
I doubt the common reader knows which house published what. Who published TWILIGHT? Who published THE ROAD? Who published THE DAVINCI CODE? I have no clue. Most readers will choose a book based on visibility, cover, snapshot, and the first few pages (or, if you're like my wife, by reading the last paragraph of the book).
I do think that readers like to have confidence that their money will be well-spent, but there are very good ways on the Net to get that information now, that have nothing to do with the 'validation' of a printed label.
I liked what Margaret Yang said about you-tube: recommendations through word of mouth. Also, the Amazon review system, and other review and rating sites, are a great way to build consumer confidence.
I think these will become even more important as the younger generation comes into it's own. Younger generatons are used to getting their information from the net. They most likely trust it more and are more oriented toward finding things through social networking, and review/ratings.
If there ever was any trust inspired by a printed label, it will gradually fade out. That's my prediction, anyway.
That's a good point, Nathan. Right now I don't check the spine, but I also assume that what's on the shelves came through a publisher.
But what if we lived in a world where that assumption didn't hold? What if The Life of Pi and Dune were shelved next to Atlanta Nights and The Eye of Argon? We'd have to have someone's guarantee that a book isn't crap. A publisher's guarantee might carry more weight in such a world.
But I think Mira's right in that ultimately word-of-mouth will be what sells books, publisher's guarantee or no. In which case, publishers may have to beg authors to come work with them. Maybe.
Thank you for the link to the awesome wolf t-shirt. So glad to have that and other related items welcome me on my Amazon page. I'm seriously considering buying the purple one–the wolf love shirt–and wearing it to the next writer's conference. I'll get noticed for sure!
I've always thought that the books being offered through the traditional retail sources (e.g. Borders, Books-A-Million, Amazon, etc.) have the stamp-of-approval from mainstream publishers, and therefore, are considered professional . Whereas books that are sold through independent, non-traditional distribution sources (websites, off-Broadway-bookstores, etc.), seem diminished somehow.
But you are right, Nathan, if I am inferring your meaning correctly, distribution channels do not determine the quality of the book. Yet, major publishers carry the necessary influence with most of today’s retailers to get their authors’ novels/books displayed, and independent authors do not. And the hard, cold reality is that the access to the mainstream distribution channels to the end consumer (our readers) directly affects a books visibility, availability and ultimately, its commercial success.
Whether intentional or not, and whether deserved or not, a stigma has been successfully associated with self-publishing – as though the author’s work wasn’t up to snuff to be distributed through the mainstream, traditional channels. However, as the industry undergoes the cataclysmic upheaval, where new technology is threatening to knock down the barriers to market, there will be powerful, successful authors who will have the opportunity to change the face of publishing – for example, James Patterson.
I believe that some entrepreneurial authors and/or already successful mainstream authors will have the unique opportunity in the next few years to take advantage of the changing business environment.
This will not mean that authors’ with haphazard, unplanned and unmanaged distribution, marketing and business models will be successful at independent-publishing. And even those that have a successful business plan and a kick-butt, professional team will have to offer TOP OF THE LINE, HIGH QUALITY books if their endeavor is to be taken seriously by retailers and readers.
The more I participate in blogs and read industry trends, the more confident I am that the right entrepreneurs can harness the diverse and powerful skill sets found in the author community, create a vertical supply chain , and change the face of publishing. Overnight? No, but it will be done by someone.
Whether or not I am ever published through a mainstream publisher, I would like to be a part of the new model.
What about gatekeeping? You know one of the things I am most leery about when considering a book that hasn't gone through a publisher is the waste of money/time when I discover the book hasn't had any editing.
Agents sell to publishers that means a lot of eyes and opinions have gone into that book before it hits either the online or real life shelf. You might take distribution out of the power mix but someone is going to have to step in and do the gatekeeping.
@Richmond
If the cover is acceptable, it takes one reader to check the online excerpt and comment any flaws. If the problems are subtler, it takes one reader to buy the book and comment any flaws. If direct comments are censored by the evil author, it takes one blog search for the title. Or the reader can find opinions about previous works. And so on.
No author that self-publishes commercially can afford offering no excerpts and having no public conversation with readers and no presence at all in the social media. It just… doesn't make any sense.
So really, it's virtually impossible to self publish a book and gain exposure without blatantly exposing its flaws.
I don't see it as a question of needing an agent to bridge to an e- publisher. What we need agents for now is to navigate the system, get the best deals possible from traditional publishers. (There, I stopped myself from using quotations.)
If e-books become the norm of the future, then I imagine the conglomerate publishing houses will either have to take over the electronic publishing industry, or agents will be dealing directly with book companines like Amazon.
And if publishing your novel is all you're interested in, perhaps you won't need the agent to negotiate a fair deal at all. I'm sure e-publishers will come up with a standard pay scale.
I do see quality writing deteriorating in that future, however. As with self publishing now, I see e-book publishing becoming something for the impatient to just click on, follow a few standard steps, and see their project in print.
I've seen enough self-published books that were well worth reading, but so many more that were rightly turned down by agents/publishing houses.
And its not like I'm opposed to the electronic industry. I applaud the drive to go paperless, save some trees. Move forward into the future.
Maybe I just can't imagine a world without the current checks and balances.
………dhole
Very good post. Having done both the standard publishing and self-publishing route, I would like to add one very, VERY important reason why traditional publishers will always exist: CREDIBILITY.
Putting a book on AMAZON does not sell it. A book has to be recognized by the readers who will buy it. Unless the author has some degree of personal fame on their side, they will need teh infrastructure and reputation of an established publishing house. Smaller imprints may disappear, but the names people know in publishing will continue because they (unlike the authors) are known and trusted by the buying public.
Inmteresting look into the future and nice shirt!
I only have a couple of minutes, so I can't read all of the comments right now – I apologize if someone already asked this.
You mention having an agent help out with the ePublishing process. How would that work? Agents typically make their money from the advances, but there would be no advance if a writer self-published. I would really like the expertise of an agent if I self-published, but I don't know how that would work or if many agents are even considering such query letters.
Nathan–
I think this is the best summation of the possibilities of ebooks that I have seen so far. I even blogged about your post myself.
The thing I use to illustrate this discussion is blogs themselves. Anyone can create a blog; you could call them the first iteration of digital publishing. But how many people– unconnected to an organization or business– really manage to make a splash with their blog? I do think digital publishing will make it easier to break into book publishing, but it's not going to be an overnight change and it's not going to make it effortless.
In the very beginning of publishing, when the printing press was becoming popular, didn't authors self-publish with a kind-of partnership with the printer?
If that's true, it seems history may be repeating itself, and Mr. Bransford seems to be describing it to a tee.
Ahh, the glory of open distribution.
I just grabbed Dan Brown's new book as an ebook. It took about two minutes to find and an extra two minutes to download.
What makes internet distribution so incredible is that I, like thousands of others, paid zero dollars for the download.
Factor that into a P&L statement, author royalty and agent commission.
Welcome to the new world of publishing.
As an author who already gets over 50% of her revenue from ebook sales, does that qualify me as an "author of the future"? 🙂
I publish with a small press that began as an ebook publisher and now offers most titles in both print and ebook formats (note the plural here). The thought of publishing on my own scares me for the same reasons mentioned in many of the above posts. The time committment to promote my books is already huge; I can't imagine if I had to design the cover, format the manuscript for all the different ebook readers as well as all the other distribution tasks that are involved. I love having a publisher who takes care of all that!
But even though the books are offered in both formats, most readers seem to prefer the ebook format for my genre (erotic romance). As a result, the bulk of my royalty check is from the ebook sales. So I'd posit that the author of the future…is already here!
Diana
Nathan — you are on a roll this week!
I think the whole idea of publishers who are service providers is a very interesting one. The first question that comes to mind is — is there a market for this? I think the answer is yes. The next question is — are the traditional publishers recognizing this, and investing in it? or will this be left to a new flavor of publisher? If the latter then it sounds to me like you have a viable business idea. But I think you may be missing the mark on what's driving the business climate.e-readers are part of it, but not all of it. The underlying change that is occurring is information explosion. Information is driving the need for change. e-readers are just a delivery device.
The Author of the Future may need to have more cash in hand prior to getting published if the industry does flatten and more of the tasks done by publishers today (professional editing, cover design, marketing, etc.) are handled by hired specialists.
Money — venture capital — is the key. What makes most best-sellers is the co-op to get them in B&N's prime spots.
You'd have to pry B&N and Amazon and any other book chain's cold dead hands off that big, juicy pile of revenue.
So, in this proposed Brave New World, your new platform will be how much money you have available to pitch in for co-op.
It will be like today's political candidates — the first question is not what you believe in, but how much is in your war chest?