For the second installment of positivity week: the future.
You don’t hear very much optimism about the future these days, what with the stock market looking like the Grand Canyon and the Bachelor breaking hearts on national television (except my heart — I loved every minute).
We’re just over the horizon from the digital age of books. It will be a major transition. It is going to cause some heartache and displacement and layoffs, as it is already. We’re seeing old models break and die. And right now in the world of books, the shrinking shelf space due to closing bookstores (not to mention closing wallets) isn’t yet being replenished by the new possibilities that are afforded by the digital marketplace. Right now there are still all sorts of bottlenecks in the system that are resulting in good books not being published (or under-published) and all sorts of stress. Plus, change is scary.
(And yes, I know that paragraph may violate the terms of positivity week. Don’t worry, I’m getting to the good stuff.)
Don’t fret over your beloved paper books: they will always be around in some form. But here’s why we, as lover of books, should embrace the coming eBook future: distribution will no longer hold writers back.
Writers from the beginning of time have been faced with one essential physical challenge: you had to get the books to the people. Thus, you either owned a printing press or you had to find a publisher (who owned you). Without the publishers: there was no way to reach an audience.
This physical barrier has already eroded somewhat with POD and self-publishing, but as anyone who has self-published knows: good luck getting your self-published book into a bookstore. You may be able to print your own book these days, but without a publisher’s backing or pre-existing fame it’s ridiculously hard to find an audience.
In sum: throughout the past two hundred years, someone could write a perfectly good book, but there was one big barrier standing in between the author and their readers: publishers. As much as I’d like to think the publishing industry is always right, well, it’s not.
But here’s what’s going to happen in the digital era: anyone will be able to publish their book, and there will be no distribution barrier. The same eBook stores that stock Stephenie Meyer and Dan Brown will stock, well, you. Readers will be the ones who decide what becomes popular. There will be no intermediary. It will be just as easy to buy a book by you as it will be to buy the HARRY POTTER of the future. Your book will be just a few keystrokes away from everyone with an internet connection (and their tablet/eReader/iPhone/gizmo/whatchamacallit of the future).
Just think about it: no wondering how in the world your book is going to find its way past a publisher into a bookstore. No more print runs! No one will be doomed by a publisher and bookstores underbetting on their success. No more bottleneck. No more que……… well, there will always be queries. Sorry!
Books will finally be able to live and die by, well, themselves, not by the best guesses of the publishing industry.
Now, am I, the agent, writing my own obituary? Nope. I don’t think so. If anything things are getting more complicated, and authors will still need agents to navigate the business and negotiate with the Amazons and Sonys and Apples and whoever else rises up in the future. There will still be subrights to negotiate and distribution deals and all sorts of challenges that authors will be hardpressed to face on their own. We’ll still be here.
Am I writing the major publisher’s obituary? Nope. I don’t think so. Although their business will change a great deal, they’re probably correct to be coalescing around a blockbuster model. They will still be offering an unrivaled package of services: they’ll edit, copyedit, typeset, and promote your book, and better yet, they’ll pay you an advance. For the busy bestseller and celebrity it’s a very, very attractive package.
Am I writing the small publisher’s obituaries? Nope. I don’t think so. Small publishers will thrive around collectives like McSweeney’s, who help each other promote their likeminded books, and serve as tastemakers in the ensuing deluge of books. Readers will gravitate towards the sites on the Internet with books they like, and enterprising small publishers will have a greater opportunity than ever to become major players.
People, the future of books is exciting! Right now it’s scary and chaotic and is making me regularly pound my head on the desk. But when you look at the big picture: greater access will be the best thing that has ever happened to writers in the history of books.
Anonymous, that doesn’t offend, but I think your statement “If it wasn’t good enough for a book deal… then it shouldn’t be next to a published book” reflects what will soon be an antiquated paradigm.
When I re-read this post, I was just so happy at the idea that in the near future, authors can finally cut free of the publisher’s iron grip.
You know – the iron grip that doesn’t market new authors, pays peanuts, and makes it unreasonably hard for a new author to get published.
Good riddance! Really!
Sure change is alittle nerve wracking, but power and freedom are well worth it.
Lots of interesting stuff here today. Nathan is correct of course. Publishers and agents won’t be put out of business by this change. They’ll just shift, develop new ways to market, distribute, and sell their books. The big and small presses will continue to flourish, albeit in new ways.
Writers certainly will have new ways to give access to their books, but the big question remains, as many have pointed out, will access turn into readers? I think most will find that is not the case. Most writers are not marketers or publicists. Lots of money will be made to ‘help’ these folks, who will find that it does little good. It will help some to be sure. Stories will abound about the unknown writer achieving best seller status via a saavy online marketing campaign. But for most, it will be a lot of the same. Don’t get me wrong though. There will be a lot more opportunities available to succeed, but in reality, most writers don’t have the time or where-with-all to do what it will take to succeed.
The biggest problem, as I see it? Convenience. People will want the easiest way possible to find and read good books. The people with the money will be the ones who capitalize on this and create the best methods to achieve this end. They will of course make money getting writers to spend money to access this in the hopes of selling. Kudos to writers who can figure out how to do this on their own. Most will find that they don’t want/can’t sacrifice the time they take to write in order to market and promote. How easy is it to spend hours a day surfing around the blogosphere trying to stay connected and network with others?
In essence, the old ways will convert themselves to the new way of business, maximizing the amount of money they can make, and doing their best to minimize what others can do to garner their share of the pie. We’re just in a chaotic time of transition. When things settle out, there will be different ways of achieving the same end, the buying and selling of books. The corporate world will manage to maximize their share, and it will still be insanely difficult to make it on your own as a writer, much like it is now. Those who will benefit the most? The reader. They’ll still find good stuff to read, and they’ll gravitate to the most efficient way possible of achieving that end.
Not sure that’s either positive or negative really. It’s just the way it will be. In my humble, non-expert opinion of course.
Hmmm, well I still wish everyone would cheer up. Nathan is dead on target, and the future is bright – I think, anyway.
In other news, although this is off topic, I’m following up on our conversation from yesterday, Nathan.
I noticed that even though I triple-dog-dared you x infinity, I still have not received a signing contract from you.
And that’s even though I spelled the word ‘receive’ correctly.
Twice.
So, I’ve decided to sweeten the deal.
It’s true I haven’t written a darn thing. But. You should know that I do have a few ideas.
Yes. Ideas.
A few of them.
Yup, I thought that would make all the difference.
Um, when you send the contract, could you start with the money part?
Okey dokey. That should do it.
I do believe I like this optimism week.
Personally, I look forward to waggling a cane at young’uns and telling them about the ridiculously primitive early 2000’s, when e-books were new and weird.
Anon at 1:56,
I’m assuming amazon will continue to offer reviews, it’s star rating system and sneak peaks into the books content. In fact, that’s how I wade through the cr@p now. BTW that includes the stuff that got through the gate keepers.
Nathan,
I love, love, LOVE this post!!!
Do you think the easier access to the people will result in less well written books? I’m finding that the whole process of appealing to an agent/publisher is making me write a better book.
Very positive stuff indeed! 😉
Loving positivity week – and great post, thank you!
RE: Mark Terry “I wonder what will happen to book-and-mortar bookstores.”
I used to live in Chicago, and was really surprised to hear that the Michigan Ave store is due for closure. However, it reminds me of what one of my (well read) American colleagues said at the time. “No one actually goes to Borders to buy a book. You go, find what you want to read, get a nice spot in their leather sofas and maybe a cup of coffee. Read your book. Then mark the page and put it back, until you go back the next time.”
Perhaps the future of large bookstores is in losing the non-book related gimmicks and returning to the traditional value-add of knowledgeable staff providing informed customer service and guidance in finding the book you don’t know you are after and selling it? Which is why some indie bookstores are still doing well, despite current climate.
If I know exactly which book I want, I go to amazon. If I want a type of book, or subject matter but don’t know which one, I go to the bookstore.
I wonder if there will be a difference due to the aim of the author which path he/she takes? To go back to a previous posting here, Money or Literary Fame? And how well they will grow together?
First, financially more viable for the majority of authors to make a small profit from a smaller audience – self-pub. Second, to become Nobel prize winner, stick with agent and publisher route?
I wonder if we will see an increasingly narrow selection of what are considered (in the second group) “good” books and if/when the self-pubbed stigma will be overcome in those circles?
How very, very true…
Indie authors abound. 🙂
-C
To Jen – ‘people don’t want to wade through crap . . . why going to a bookstore is easy . . . gotten through a certain amount of doors to get to that shelf’. Well, I’ve – unfortunately – bought some crap at the bookstore and thought “WTH??? How’d this get published?” While I agree, somewhat, with you, I must disagree on some level. I also know that on many of the books for Amazon Kindle, a person can download the first chapter. I can normally tell whether I’ll like a book or not by reading the first chapter. If I like the first chapter, I buy, if not, I don’t.
I agree that sometimes you wonder how things got published, but there is normally a publishable element that has gotten it through the door. Think about Twilight – the writing is pretty average in that book (sometimes it’s cringe-worthy!) but there is a story there that appeals to a heck of a lot of people.
As far as downloading chapters, imagine how many trillions of e-books there will be in the future to wade through. Downloading the first chapter of everything is going to take you a long time, and a lot of your monthly download limit! I think it will still come down to the book being on a reputable site (think Borders E-Book store or Dymocks E-Book store), a great premise, and word of mouth. Just like it is now!
Nathan Bransford said…
anon, jen, kate h and others-
Yes, definitely the new world will result in some chaos as people have to find new ways of sorting through the bad to get to the good, and marketing will become even more important. I actually think traditional publishers will continue to have an advantage in this area even in the era of eBooks. But everyone else will have a much better shot than before.
Nathan, do you think that in the future publishers will have more of a hand in marketing and promotion, rather than leaving quite so much up to the author? (And who will be in charge of smell-o-vision? OMG)
Dear Nathan,
I’m a long-time reader, first-time commenter. I finally came off the sidelines to say: Thank you, thank you, THANK YOU for Positivity Week!
jen-
Definitely — there will surely be a 21st version of co-op placement as publishers fight for space in e-mail blasts, front pages, etc. Marketing will still be important.
The new e-publishing world is going to look a lot like this one, only things will be, well, different. I still think it will be a net positive for authors, mainly because no one will be subservient to the whims of print runs and bookstore ordering. It makes it much less cost prohibitive and risky to put a book out, which will enable more risk-taking and will even the playing field in many ways.
The big publishers will still have many substantial advantages because they have localized resources and expertise that isn’t easy to duplicate, but I’m guessing we’ll see much more fluidity in terms of what books rise to the top.
I’m not feeling comfortable with the positive Nathan. I much prefer the honest Nathan who I can trust to tell me what’s happening in a realistic, unhyped way. This just all feels a bit Disney. I might have to block my eyes until next week…
Happy Square Root Day!
Nathan,
I do think it is going to be an exciting change, although I agree that a lot will also stay the same. One good thing will be it will probably solve that problem authors have wherein if their last book has not sold so well then the bookstore will not order as many of their next, thus making it almost impossible to have a best seller.
Oh, I just had a cool vision of the bookstore of the future, where you can go in and browse titles and blurbs, decide what you like, then go to a machine and plug in your Kindle and download straight onto it. Then you will still have the experience of shopping in a store, plus have staff recommendations, places for author readings and so on, while keeping with the times. And of course, the obligatory cafe so you can sit and read your Kindle over a latte (or soy chai, in my case!). That would be fun!
My only concerns with this are that once everyone can put their books straight out there, without any kind of quality control, 1. the quality will obviously dip, making it necessary to hunt for the readable stuff, and 2. if the average internet Joe can’t even get people to his blog, how does his book stand a chance? Even if it’s great?
Popularity economy scares me, to be honest.
So as long as there is quality control with the e-books, then it will be fine. More selection with e-books sounds good for the writer as there is more opportunity for us.
Some might fret that more choices equals less chances that they will become a breakaway author of the pack.
If you got a good book, good advertising/marketing, and word of mouth…all is well.
Change is good, but like you said it can also be kind of scary. On the other hand, scary is often exciting. So, I’m just going to hold on to my hat and try to enjoy the ride.
Oh, and congrats on the empty inbox!
Nathan, I love the way you took me through this – every time a question popped into my head, you answered it in the next paragraph!
Thanks for the much-needed positivity and for dialing down my e-book concerns.
This video says it all about the future(just for books instead of movies).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UZ9qcp6Lcno
What would line my bookshelves if we all went to ebooks?
Books are beautiful to look at and easily shared amongst friends. They are a conversation piece when a guest remarks on your collection or that they read that one before. Books aren’t just for reading, otherwise ebooks would have less opposition. Books are inscribed gifts, memories on your shelf, art that should be displayed. Without the physical book, what would remind me of it years past?
Nope, I don’t comment much but I really do enjoy the blog. Thanks Nathan.
A twist to your projection. The publisher’s role is reduced dramatically to print and marketing as electronic reading becomes the norm. The balance shifts and the most important person becomes the agent (house). The agents and their companies are unencumbered by the excess fat the publishers carry around with their out of date business model. They will not be able to react quick enough to take full advantage of what takes place in the next two years.
The agent brings the line editor and style editor in house and creates final electronic documents. The agent then find the electronic outlet most suitable (bypassing the publisher). Then when an electronic read wants to go hard cover the publisher looks for the agent that owns property rights.
Lol. Ok. Nuts. Just a thought.
Nathan,Thanks for the insightful article.
I have been in the retail management business and this is what I observe:
Titles hit the streets in mass production with proven authors. There is still no substitute for in your face merchandising in the brick and mortar stores.
In retail, you keep pushing what sells, until you find something else to push , caused by either trend or marketplace demands. Yes, I believe there is a market for e-books…but it will all be up to how you market your product. For example:
I do not make squat for my short stories on amazon but after doing a trailer for one of the shorts, it more than tripled its sales after doing due dilligence driving people to my blog.
Things are a changing!
Well Nathan, when you put it that way, count me in! If E Books will lead to easier access to us authors to get our books out there, bring it on!
But is the agent going to be interested in collaborating with a small publisher offering a commensurately small or zero advance?
Well I’m just a nimrod. I’m reading the post again from home and there it is plain as day. You did touch on the bachelor!
Dude. You are so smart. ‘S all I’m saying.
Bravo, Nathan! Brave words and a brave attitude!
I’ve met several writers on Authonomy who are experienced in marketing and retail, and are having a grand time selling their own works POD.
Not every writer is an entrepreneur, but, for some, independence seems to be the way to go.
Just a thought!
I actually love the idea of the Ireader the Ebook the cyberbook – because I love my techno-stuff.
Love it!
I’m so glad you’re doing positivity week! I read enough feeds about how bad it is, and as someone who would like to work in publishing after she graduates (in May 2010) it’s getting scary! Thanks for the big picture. I’m feeling a little better about those internship applications. A little. 🙂
whoa,
E-books are the future? You mean a very small part of the future, right? It’s just so hard to imagine parents reading bed time stories to their kids off the Kindle. Or checking out library books with your Ipod Touch. Or downloading the book you were assigned in class on to your computer along with the requisite Cliff Notes. Dude and who really wants to go through airport security with another fragile, expensive machine when you’ve already got a laptop, camera, mp3 player and phone to worry about?
I think you should be optimistic because in a few months this switch to digital is going to require everyone to either buy a new TV or get cable. Some people are just not going to have it and they’ll be looking for a new source of entertainment. If there’s enough upset over the switch, the book industry can generate some very powerful cognitive dissonance.
I would also be optimistic about global warming. Well-bound paper books are still the least energy intense form of media-based entertainment. They’re also the most biodegradable and the least toxic. You don’t have to worry about radiation, hearing loss or lead poisoning from a book.
Lastly, I would be optimistic about increases in the time people spend waiting for stuff in general. More bored people waiting around for stuff to happen is the best thing that could happen for the book industry.
You could also be optimistic about increasing movie, video game and music costs, hipster frustration with commercial music and the impending retirement of Baby Boomers who should soon have a lot more time to read.
Thought provoking as always!
With recession and unemployment, people perhaps have more time to read books but can’t buy as much since they are short of funds. So may be new avenues are required to make secondary readership much more widespread.
Sales may come down in the short run but if we stay focused on delighting the readers, money will naturally come, may be later than sooner.
I don’t think the middle channels can ever be done away with and hope not. Perhaps with tougher times, better practices will evolve such that only greatest quality books read end readers.
https://www.vqronline.org/blog/2009/03/03/authors-guild-riaa/
FYI
A good read from Virginia Quarterly on the very same subject.
-C
I was taking a closer look at the information on the Amazon website for the Kindle 2.0. There’s a long section about how to publish and sell your own book on the Kindle. Blogs are also available for the Kindle.
Sounds exciting! There’s hope for us!
I think you see this happening online already in short fiction. New short fiction markets–GOOD ones–are opening all the time due to the internet.
People find that fiction and read it. They like what they see, they come back. Not like so much? They don’t.
I think there’s a growing trend of calling those of us who want to find an agent and get published by big houses “Traditional” that is borderline derogatory. Calling someone “Traditional” in this age is seen more and more as someone who isn’t willing to change.
But is is clear that SOMETHING has to change.
With the rise of self-publishing, more and more people can write whatever they want and still call themselves a published “author”. While at one time this, too, was looked down upon as not “really” being published it is now becoming more and more common and accepted by growing numbers of people.
So, Nathan, what would you say to someone who still believes in the “Traditional” way (agent, editor, publisher) and is getting downtrodden when all her friends are self-publishing and becoming “authors” and having parties?
I am being prejudiced here and kinda to equate it to weight-loss surgery vs. diet and exercise. Traditionally publishing authors are those that use diet and exercise to lose 100 pounds, but it takes them two years. Self-publishers are those that opt for lap-bands or gastric bypass and see those 100 pounds drop in two months but they have to take vitamins for the rest of their lives.
JD, did you notice in that Youtube clip that the woman is reading a paper book? HA!
I love it when we all get to don capes and fly off, united, into the future.
I’m all for change, and as someone who could possibly beenfit from the eBook revolution when it comes, it will probably benefit me. But I also like the bound A5 book that I can take anywhere and read. The idea of reading a book on a screen just doesn’t resonate with me. Perhaps I’m a luddite?
Nathan, you are awesome! I just had to pop in and say that. =)
I know this comes up a lot, but it’s hard not to make a comparison with the way the music industry has looked for some time. With any old noodler able to offer their music online and get it sold through credible outlets like Amazon and Itunes, suddenly you’re up against a million times as many people vying for consumer’s attention. The issue is how to stand out from the sea of other creators, many of whom are just enthusiastic amateurs, who have no knowledge or concept of craft.
In music, if you “self-publish” it’s incredibly difficult to reach listeners without the endorsement of tastemakers and respected, already-known reviewers. You also need to spend a frankly astonishing amount of time building “friends” and infiltrating online communities etc etc because there’s no exposure available to you that you don’t directly create yourself. Because of this, numerous shady online organisations have sprung up offering to do your PR for you, and in almost all cases these organisations are just shameless profiteers and of no practical use whatsoever. Additionally, in the UK, almost every time the press cries “online sensation breaks into mainstream” and tries to convince you that an act started in their bedroom one night and got an enormous record deal the next day due to their “massive online following”, you do a little digging and find that said act have been managed by professionals and agented by professionals for some time. The “online breakthrough” was manufactured by a team of people working very hard to get that act noticed.
What I think this means for the book industry is that there is more of a role for agents than ever, and possibly “managers” of authors too. In order to stand apart authors will need astonishing writing skills, incredible PR skills, a willingness to commit to any and all promotional opportunities, and an ability to collaborate creatively with a small team of people in order to reach the highest available number of potential book buyers. And what we need the most is cache. We should all be placing the highest value on our writing and not giving it away for free – we need to perpetuate the idea that our work has real worth, real weight, not that it is something to just be given away. How we cultivate that sense of worth will be a matter to be discussed at length with our agents, and will be the key to being successful in these days of the new digital frontier.
For me, I’m very excited about this wonderful prospect. People always could publish their own stuff. Martin Luther did it. Thoreau said he had a library of 1,000 volumes, 800 of which he’d published himself (or something like that). Now the writer will be in control of his works.
As a writer and a natural-born escapist, I think we should have “positivity week” 52 times a year.
Great post. As someone who writes fiction straddling the border between literary and popular, I’ve always been a hard sell. Yet I am fundamentally convinced that my writing would find lots of readers with the right combination of agent/editor/publisher. The sheer LUCK involved in getting successfully published–if you lack connections, like most writers–is incomprehensible. And writers who get the first contract invariably acknowledge that–“I’m so lucky, I feel so lucky!” they shout. Not–“I’m such a great writer, I knew this would happen.” Because it not only feels like luck to them, they know it IS luck.
I hope you are right, Nathan. I can hardly wait for the future to arrive. I am so tired of my career being held hostage by uninspired agents and overworked, groupthinky editors.
I agree with the last part of your comment, especially! It really is exciting, and I think in the long run, all of this hype will work out for the best!
Digital smigital. If the only reason you want an agent is to help with the marketing, you’re a better writer than I am. Scratch that, you probably are a better writer than I am.
What I look forward to most in getting an agent (and an editor), is becoming a writer who writes better books.
If the sole goal of an author were for people to read his work, then I would agree with you; unfortunately, we all want to make money at this game, and it’s here that your argument falls apart.
The problem is security. Look at the music industry — piracy is rampant, and every new form of DRM is rapidly cracked.
As a former computer programmer I can say with confidence that every system can be cracked, and it only has to be cracked once — the method can then be duplicated world-wide.
For bands whose music is pirated, they can still make money through concerts; but I defy the pirated novelist to make a living from reading his work aloud in bookstores that hold a mere several hundred people (at the most).